{"id":756,"date":"2017-09-09T13:13:48","date_gmt":"2017-09-09T11:13:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=756"},"modified":"2022-08-14T14:00:58","modified_gmt":"2022-08-14T12:00:58","slug":"earnings-v-druha-cast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=756","title":{"rendered":"Earnings &#8211; V. (druh\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">\u2026<\/span><strong><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=733\">pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00edho \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/a><\/span>.<\/strong> Bez n\u011bjak\u00e9ho dal\u0161\u00edho epick\u00e9ho \u00favodu se posunu rovnou do historie a zastav\u00edm se u historicky druh\u00e9ho nejmlad\u0161\u00edho vyhla\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed Earnings z\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00edho pohledu (kdy p\u00ed\u0161u tento \u010dl\u00e1nek), kdy\u017e s p\u0159edchoz\u00edm vyhla\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm jsem se vypo\u0159\u00e1dal v\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku. Podm\u00ednky vstupu jsou stejn\u00e9 jako v\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00ed uk\u00e1zce, otev\u00edr\u00e1m <strong>stejn\u00fd obchod s\u00a0opcemi<\/strong> na podklad FB, za <strong>jasn\u011b definovan\u00e9 \u00farovni ztr\u00e1ty<\/strong> a stejn\u011b tak definovan\u00e9 <strong>mo\u017enosti profitu<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">FB #2 (Debit Spreads)<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<strong>Je pond\u011bl\u00ed 24.4.2017<\/strong>. P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed st\u0159edu, dne 3.5.2017 po uzav\u0159en\u00ed trh\u016f, vyhla\u0161uje spole\u010dnost Facebook Inc hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Op\u011bt p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161l\u00edm, \u017ee vstoup\u00edm do op\u010dn\u00edho obchodu, abych se pokusil zobchodovat Earnings. Zvolil jsem pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed a porovn\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f identickou pozici <strong>Long Strangle<\/strong> v\u00a0situaci, kter\u00e1 je zachycena na obr\u00e1zku<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"757\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=757\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-start.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"621,621\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Debit Spreads start\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-start.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-757 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-start.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"621\" height=\"621\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-start.jpg 621w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-start-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-start-300x300.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 621px) 100vw, 621px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 V\u00a0porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdmi hodnotami pro \u0161est\u00fd den p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed Earnings, by m\u011bla b\u00fdt Implied Volatilita na hodnot\u011b zhruba <strong>45%<\/strong>. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 Implied Volatilita je ale na velmi n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00farovni necel\u00fdch <strong>27%<\/strong>, mohu pak op\u011bt p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat nestandardn\u00ed n\u00e1sledn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj Implied Volatility sm\u011brem k\u00a0Earnings, proto op\u011bt se budu sna\u017eit b\u00fdt obez\u0159etn\u00fd a sna\u017eit se vz\u00edt si z\u00a0trh\u016f to, co bude okam\u017eit\u011b nab\u00edzeno a co se mi bude hodit. P\u0159i cen\u011b 145.47 USD za FB po\u0159izuji <strong>Long Strangle +146\/+145<\/strong> za po\u0159izovac\u00ed ceny pro Long Call 146 ve v\u00fd\u0161i -283 USD a pro Long Put 145 ve v\u00fd\u0161i -284 USD, celkem tedy vyd\u00e1v\u00e1m<strong> -567 USD.<\/strong> P\u0159ikl\u00e1d\u00e1m pro \u00faplnost op\u011bt zobrazen\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje Implied Volatility s\u00a0vyzna\u010den\u00edm m\u00e9ho startovac\u00edho okam\u017eiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"740\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=740\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/IV-prumer-do-obchodu.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"578,393\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"IV prumer do obchodu\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/IV-prumer-do-obchodu.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-740 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/IV-prumer-do-obchodu.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"578\" height=\"393\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/IV-prumer-do-obchodu.jpg 578w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/IV-prumer-do-obchodu-150x102.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/IV-prumer-do-obchodu-300x204.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 578px) 100vw, 578px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00edzk\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 Implied Volatility se tak\u00e9 prom\u00edt\u00e1 do ceny opc\u00ed. P\u0159i podobn\u00e9 cen\u011b akcie FB jsem ve stejn\u00fd okam\u017eik v\u00a0minul\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku opce do Long Strangle po\u0159\u00eddil t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 100 USD dr\u00e1\u017e ne\u017e nyn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Chab\u00fd v\u00fdvoj Implied Volatility a m\u00edrn\u00fd pohyb na podkladu byl patrn\u00fd po cel\u00fd t\u00fdden a\u017e do p\u00e1tku, kdy cena neust\u00e1le a m\u00edrn\u011b rostla. <strong>N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed pond\u011bl\u00ed 1.5.2017<\/strong>, tedy <strong>dva dny p\u0159ed vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm v\u00fdsledk\u016f<\/strong>, jsem mohl na podkladu FB vypozorovat n\u00ed\u017ee uvedenou situaci, kterou jsem vyu\u017eil k\u00a0po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch vyzna\u010den\u00fdch op\u010dn\u00edch pozic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"760\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=760\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-spreads-1.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"613,586\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Debit Spreads spreads\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-spreads-1.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-760 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-spreads-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"613\" height=\"586\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-spreads-1.jpg 613w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-spreads-1-150x143.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-spreads-1-300x287.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 613px) 100vw, 613px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Op\u011bt je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee Implied Volatilita neprob\u00edh\u00e1 tak, jak by m\u011bla a je daleko za o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm, v\u00a0tento den by m\u011bla b\u00fdt n\u011bkde kolem hodnoty <strong>v\u00edce ne\u017e 70%<\/strong>. Z\u00a0obr\u00e1zku je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee jej\u00ed hodnota na ATM strike je n\u011bco <strong>m\u00e1lo p\u0159es 45%<\/strong>. Je to sice hluboce pod pr\u016fm\u011brem, ale pokud bych se zam\u011b\u0159il na procentn\u00ed rozd\u00edl zm\u011bny t\u00e9to Implied Volatility mezi dobou po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm okam\u017eikem, tak tento je ve v\u00fd\u0161i (45.49% &#8211; 28.62%) <strong>+16.87%<\/strong>. U pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch hodnot bych podobn\u011b mohl ode\u010d\u00edst (72.27% &#8211; 45.73%) hodnotu rozd\u00edlu n\u00e1r\u016fstu na <strong>+26.54%<\/strong>. Tendence r\u016fstu Implied Volatility je tak o deset procentn\u00edch bod\u016f slab\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e je zvykem. Beru tedy to, co se mi nab\u00edz\u00ed a nab\u00edz\u00ed se mi opravdu dobr\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Z\u00e1kladn\u00edm pravidlem m\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu je, vz\u00edt si co nejv\u00edce tak, abych m\u011bl pokryt\u00e9 zejm\u00e9na v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 n\u00e1klady a nechal si, pokud mo\u017eno, prostor pro p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd profit. V\u00a0intenc\u00edch t\u00e9to my\u0161lenky po\u0159izuji Short op\u010dn\u00ed kontrakty ozna\u010den\u00e9 \u010derven\u00fdmi krou\u017eky. <strong>ITM Short Call 149 za +515 USD<\/strong> a <strong>OTM Short Put 144 za +45 USD<\/strong>. Celkov\u011b p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1m <strong>+560 USD<\/strong>. M\u00e9 p\u016fvodn\u00ed n\u00e1klady ve v\u00fd\u0161i -567 USD jsou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 uhrazeny, kdy\u017e rozd\u00edlem je <strong>-7 USD<\/strong> \u010d\u00e1stka, kter\u00e1 nyn\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje <strong>maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017enou velikost p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty<\/strong>. Na obou stran\u00e1ch Call i Put jsem vytvo\u0159il Debit Spready s\u00a0n\u00e1klady na jejich po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i -7 USD. Na Call stran\u011b m\u00e1m <strong>Call Bull Spread +146\/-149<\/strong> s\u00a0maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm potenci\u00e1lem profitu o rozsahu jeho strike, tedy <strong>+300 USD<\/strong>. Na Put stran\u011b m\u00e1m <strong>Put Bear Spread +145\/-144<\/strong> s\u00a0maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm potenci\u00e1lem profitu o rozsahu jeho strike, tedy <strong>+100 USD<\/strong>. Toto jsou maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 profity, kter\u00e9 mohu o\u010dek\u00e1vat na obou stran\u00e1ch pozice, pokud se cena p\u0159i expiraci bude pohybovat nad Call strike nebo pod Put strike. P\u0159i n\u00e1kladech -7 USD a maxim\u00e1ln\u00edmu mo\u017en\u00e9mu profitu +300 USD na Call stran\u011b je tak risk\/reward pom\u011br ve v\u00fd\u0161i 7:300, a to nezn\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b zle. Dopln\u00edm, \u017ee maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017enou ztr\u00e1tu utrp\u00edm, pokud se cena p\u0159i expiraci ocitne mezi strike m\u00e9ho p\u016fvodn\u00edho Long Strangle +145\/+146. Pokud z\u016fstane mezi strike Long opc\u00ed a Short opc\u00ed, tak vyd\u011bl\u00e1m v\u017edy tolik, kolik bude v\u00a0pen\u011bz\u00edch m\u00e1 Long opce a od t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1stky mus\u00edm ode\u010d\u00edst m\u00e9 -7 USD n\u00e1klad\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 <strong>Earnings m\u011b tak ji\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nezaj\u00edm\u00e1<\/strong> a j\u00e1 pouze sleduji, kde se bude m\u00e1 pozice nach\u00e1zet<strong> p\u0159i expiraci<\/strong>. Na obr\u00e1zku je vid\u011bt, jak to p\u0159i expiraci dopadlo<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"761\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=761\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-expiry.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"595,529\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Debit Spreads expiry\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-expiry.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-761 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-expiry.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"595\" height=\"529\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-expiry.jpg 595w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-expiry-150x133.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Debit-Spreads-expiry-300x267.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 595px) 100vw, 595px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Trend r\u016fstu p\u0159ed Earnings z\u016fstal zachov\u00e1n, i kdy\u017e po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f m\u00edrn\u011b oto\u010dil a za\u010dal m\u00edrn\u011b klesat, aby zakon\u010dil na cen\u011b 150.24 USD. Ob\u011b Put opce vypr\u0161ely jako bezcenn\u00e9. Tato cena m\u011bla jednoduch\u00fd n\u00e1sledek pro mou pozici <strong>Call Bull Spreadu +146\/149<\/strong> \u2013 tento z\u016fstal <strong>cel\u00fd \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c<\/strong>. Mohu tak inkasovat pln\u00fd zisk na tomto spreadu ve v\u00fd\u0161i +300 USD, a to tak, \u017ee nech\u00e1m celou pozici automaticky Exercised (Long Call 146) a automaticky Assigned (Short Call 149). Celkov\u011b, po ode\u010dten\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f -7 USD jsem na tomto Earnings vyd\u011blal <strong>+293 USD<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">FB #3 (Box)<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>Je pond\u011bl\u00ed 23.1.2017.<\/strong> P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed st\u0159edu, dne 1.2.2017 po uzav\u0159en\u00ed trh\u016f, vyhla\u0161uje spole\u010dnost Facebook Inc hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Posouv\u00e1m se tak op\u011bt o \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed vzad, abych vstoupil do op\u010dn\u00edho obchodu na pozici <strong>Long Strangle<\/strong> a pokusil se vyu\u017e\u00edt fenom\u00e9nu chov\u00e1n\u00ed opc\u00ed p\u0159ed Earnings ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch. Situace vstupu v\u00a0toto pond\u011bl\u00ed je pozorovateln\u00e1 na obr\u00e1zku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"762\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=762\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-start.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"601,613\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Box start\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-start.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-762 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-start.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"601\" height=\"613\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-start.jpg 601w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-start-147x150.jpg 147w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-start-294x300.jpg 294w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 601px) 100vw, 601px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 Pohledem na hodnotu <strong>Implied Volatility<\/strong> na ATM strike zji\u0161\u0165uji, \u017ee tato se moment\u00e1ln\u011b pohybuje na \u00farovni <strong>37%<\/strong>. To je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo z\u00a0doposud p\u0159edveden\u00fdch startovac\u00edch okam\u017eik\u016f a m\u00edrn\u011b se p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eila (na rozd\u00edl \u0161esti procentn\u00edch bod\u016f) ke sv\u00e9mu <strong>45% pr\u016fm\u011bru<\/strong>. Mohu tak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee do op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace Long Strangle +128\/+129 vstoup\u00edm dr\u00e1\u017e ne\u017e v\u00a0p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159\u00edkladech, proto\u017ee je ale cena akcie FB ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e v\u00a0p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159\u00edkladech, mohu tak o\u010dek\u00e1vat n\u00e1klady v \u201eobvykl\u00e9 cen\u011b\u201c kolem \u0161estiset \u201ea n\u011bco\u201c dolar\u016f. P\u0159i cen\u011b FB v\u00a0moment\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161i 128.93 USD tak Long Call 129 po\u0159izuji za -350 USD a Long Put 128 po\u0159izuji za -305 USD, celkov\u011b vynakl\u00e1d\u00e1m na <strong>Long Strangle +128\/+129<\/strong> \u010d\u00e1stku ve v\u00fd\u0161i <strong>-655 USD<\/strong>. Toto je moment\u00e1ln\u00ed <strong>maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 hodnota m\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty<\/strong>, pokud by se \u201enic ned\u011blo\u201c nebo pokud bych \u201enic neud\u011blal\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>P\u0159i \u010dtvrtku stejn\u00e9ho t\u00fddne<\/strong>, po ub\u011bhl\u00fdch <strong>\u010dty\u0159ech dnech<\/strong>, kdy maj\u00ed opce do expirace je\u0161t\u011b osm kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edch dn\u016f zji\u0161\u0165uji, \u017ee se cena FB pohnula sm\u011brem nahoru (samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nev\u00edm pro\u010d) a j\u00e1 mohu vid\u011bt n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed konstelaci op\u010dn\u00edch cen na jednotliv\u00fdch strike a moment\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnotu Implied Volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"763\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=763\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-construction.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"611,625\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Box construction\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-construction.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-763 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-construction.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"611\" height=\"625\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-construction.jpg 611w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-construction-147x150.jpg 147w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Box-construction-293x300.jpg 293w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 611px) 100vw, 611px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<strong>Implied Volatilita<\/strong> je na ATM strikes na hodnot\u011b <strong>44.13%<\/strong>. Podle nam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011bru by ale m\u011bla v\u00a0tento den b\u00fdt na \u00farovni zhruba <strong>54%<\/strong>, zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 tak op\u011bt o 10% za nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdmi pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdmi hodnotami minul\u00fdch pr\u016fb\u011bh\u016f. M\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed je op\u011bt stejn\u00e9, sna\u017e\u00edm se z\u00a0dan\u00e9 situace, kter\u00e1 ukazuje, \u017ee by n\u00e1r\u016fst Implied Volatility nemusel b\u00fdt tak dramatick\u00fd do dne Earnings jak jsem si p\u0159edsevzal a co ukazuj\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011bry, beru to, co se mi moment\u00e1ln\u011b nab\u00edz\u00ed, veden jedinou my\u0161lenkou vr\u00e1tit si co nejv\u00edce n\u00e1klad\u016f zp\u011bt. Na stejn\u00fdch strikes, jako je Long Strangle +128\/+129 vypisuji opa\u010dn\u00e9 opce. Za <strong>Short Call 128<\/strong> inkasuji <strong>+655 USD<\/strong> a za <strong>Short Put 129<\/strong> z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1m <strong>+212 USD<\/strong>. Celkov\u011b z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1m <strong>+867 USD<\/strong>. Po\u0159izuji tak <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=218\">Short Box<\/a><\/strong><\/span> s\u00a0celkovou \u0161\u00ed\u0159kou spreadu jeden bod, tedy 100 USD. Konstrukci a pochopen\u00ed Boxu jsem ji\u017e uv\u00e1d\u011bl, pouze zopakuji, \u017ee u takov\u00e9 konstrukce Boxu, kter\u00fd je sestaven ze dvou Kreditn\u00edch Spread\u016f na stejn\u00fdch strikes na ka\u017ed\u00e9 stran\u011b op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce, mus\u00edm z\u00edskat v\u00edce pr\u00e9mia v\u00fdpisem Short opc\u00ed, ne\u017e jsem vynalo\u017eil na n\u00e1kup Long opc\u00ed a od t\u00e9to hodnoty mus\u00edm ode\u010d\u00edst dolarov\u00e9 vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed rozd\u00edlu strike. Pokud n\u011bco zbude, tak tento zbytek p\u0159edstavuje jist\u00fd profit, kter\u00fd mi nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee vz\u00edt. V\u00a0m\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jsem vynalo\u017eil <strong>-655 USD na Long Strangle<\/strong> a nyn\u00ed za <strong>Short opce<\/strong> (vlastn\u011b Short Strangle na stejn\u00fdch strikes) jsem utr\u017eil <strong>+867 USD<\/strong>, rozd\u00edl strikes je jeden bod, tedy <strong>100 USD<\/strong>. V\u00a0kone\u010dn\u00e9m v\u00fdpo\u010dtu n\u00e1klady -655 USD + tr\u017eba +867 USD \u2013 rozsah strike -100 USD = <strong>+112 USD jist\u00fd profit<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 <strong>Earnings m\u011b ji\u017e nezaj\u00edmaj\u00ed<\/strong>, nemohu v\u00edce vyd\u011blat a tak\u00e9 ji\u017e nemohu v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b prod\u011blat. Facebook si se svou cenou m\u016f\u017ee skon\u010dit kde chce. Mohu na celou pozici zapomenout, u expirace nech\u00e1m v\u0161e na clearingu, aby uplatnil a p\u0159i\u0159adil opce, kter\u00e9 budou v\u00a0danou chv\u00edli \u201ev\u00a0pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c a zanechal mi tak na m\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu \u010d\u00e1stku p\u0159edstavuj\u00edc\u00ed m\u016fj profit +112 USD.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">FB #4 (Butterflies)<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>Je pond\u011bl\u00ed 24.10.2016<\/strong>. P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed st\u0159edu, dne 2.11.2016 po uzav\u0159en\u00ed trh\u016f, vyhla\u0161uje spole\u010dnost Facebook Inc hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Posouv\u00e1m se tak op\u011bt o \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed vzad oproti p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edmu p\u0159\u00edkladu, abych vstoupil do op\u010dn\u00edho obchodu na pozici <strong>Long Strangle<\/strong>. Budu op\u011bt br\u00e1t v\u00a0\u00favahy \u201evzorce chov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f a budu se sna\u017eit t\u011bchto vlastnost\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"764\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=764\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-start.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"605,618\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Butter start\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-start.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-764 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-start.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"605\" height=\"618\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-start.jpg 605w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-start-147x150.jpg 147w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-start-294x300.jpg 294w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 Pohledem na rozlo\u017een\u00ed cen a Implied Volatilitu zji\u0161\u0165uji, \u017ee p\u0159i cen\u011b FB 133.28 USD je na ATM strike <strong>Implied Volatilita<\/strong> na hodnot\u011b zhruba <strong>41%<\/strong>, o \u010dty\u0159i procenta m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e je pr\u016fm\u011br, mohu to ale pova\u017eovat za jak\u00fdsi dobr\u00fd standard a p\u0159\u00edslib norm\u00e1ln\u00edho v\u00fdvoje t\u00e9to Implied Volatility do Earnings. P\u0159i vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cen\u011b podkladu ne\u017e v\u00a0minul\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edkladu a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed Implied Volatilit\u011b mohu u sv\u00e9ho <strong>Long Strangle +133\/+134<\/strong> o\u010dek\u00e1vat vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed po\u0159izovac\u00ed ceny. Long Call 134 po\u0159izuji za -370 USD a Long Put 133 po\u0159izuji za -395 USD. M\u00e9 celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na tyto dlouh\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed pozice jsou ve v\u00fd\u0161i <strong>-765 USD<\/strong> a p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u00a0tomto okam\u017eiku <strong>maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017enou ztr\u00e1tu<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 <strong>Ve \u010dtvrtek stejn\u00e9ho t\u00fddne<\/strong>, po ub\u011bhl\u00fdch <strong>\u010dty\u0159ech obchodn\u00edch dnech<\/strong>, kdy maj\u00ed opce do expirace je\u0161t\u011b osm kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edch dn\u016f zji\u0161\u0165uji, \u017ee se cena FB pad\u00e1 (samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nev\u00edm pro\u010d) a j\u00e1 op\u011bt mohu vid\u011bt n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed konstelaci op\u010dn\u00edch cen na jednotliv\u00fdch strike a moment\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnotu Implied Volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"765\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=765\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Btfl-construction.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"590,627\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Btfl construction\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Btfl-construction.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-765 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Btfl-construction.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"590\" height=\"627\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Btfl-construction.jpg 590w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Btfl-construction-141x150.jpg 141w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Btfl-construction-282x300.jpg 282w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 590px) 100vw, 590px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 I p\u0159i <strong>poklesu ceny<\/strong>, kter\u00fd b\u00fdv\u00e1 doprov\u00e1zen n\u00e1r\u016fstem Implied Volatility, je patn\u00e9, \u017ee tato Implied Volatilita na ATM opc\u00edch je ve v\u00fd\u0161i <strong>necel\u00fdch 50%<\/strong>. Odstup \u010dty\u0159i procenta od pr\u016fm\u011bru si tak neust\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed a dalo by se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee v\u0161e prob\u00edh\u00e1 v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Pokud bych p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161lel, \u017ee <strong>z\u00a0pozice<\/strong> <strong>vystoup\u00edm<\/strong> po tomto pohybu a v\u00a0t\u00e9to dan\u00e9 chv\u00edli, tak zji\u0161\u0165uji, \u017ee bych p\u016fvodn\u00ed opce Long Strangle neprodal s\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00fdm z\u00e1vratn\u00fdm profitem. Long Call 134 bych patrn\u011b prodal za +205 USD a Long Put 133 bych prodal za cenu +565 USD, celkem bych tak <strong>za ukon\u010den\u00ed pozice<\/strong> z\u00edskal <strong>+770 USD<\/strong>, p\u0159i n\u00e1kladech -765 USD by to byl <strong>profit +5 USD<\/strong>, co\u017e by se mi v\u00a0danou chv\u00edli v\u016fbec nel\u00edbilo a zd\u00e1lo by se mi to m\u00e1lo. Po\u0159izuji proto &#8222;odv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed&#8220; pozici dvou Butterflies na obou stran\u00e1ch Call i Put a sna\u017e\u00edm se zv\u00fd\u0161it si nad\u011bji na profit op\u011bt p\u0159i jasn\u011b dan\u00e9 ztr\u00e1t\u011b. Proto\u017ee cena poklesla, otev\u0159ela se mi cesta k\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9mu profitu pr\u00e1v\u011b na Put stran\u011b, a to zejm\u00e9na d\u00edky tomu, \u017ee opce d\u00edky neust\u00e1l\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu Implied Volatility maj\u00ed st\u00e1le velmi slu\u0161n\u00e1 pr\u00e9mia a nejv\u00edc ho samoz\u0159ejm\u011b maj\u00ed ty opce, kter\u00e9 jsou v\u00a0danou chv\u00edli ATM. Chci tedy op\u011bt <strong>co nejv\u00edce n\u00e1klad\u016f z\u00edskat zp\u011bt<\/strong> a z\u00edskat p\u0159itom slu\u0161nou mo\u017enost nad\u00e1le na pozic\u00edch <strong>profitovat<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Po\u0159izuji proto <strong>Put Butterfly<\/strong> v\u00fdpisem <strong>2 x Short Put 130<\/strong>\u00a0(moment\u00e1ln\u011b nejdra\u017e\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost s ATM opc\u00ed) a dokoupen\u00edm <strong>Long Put 127<\/strong>. Tento t\u0159\u00edstrikov\u00fd Butterfly mi p\u0159inesl 2 x 410 USD za v\u00fdpis Short Put 130 a n\u00e1klady -286 USD za nakup Long Put 127, tedy celkem<strong> +534 USD<\/strong>. Na Call stran\u011b, kter\u00e1 je moment\u00e1ln\u011b OTM, vid\u00edm d\u00edky vysok\u00e9 Implied Volatilit\u011b st\u00e1le slu\u0161n\u00e1 pr\u00e9mia na OTM opc\u00edch pro obdobnou konstrukci, jenom se mi ji\u017e nepoda\u0159\u00ed vyrobit si stejn\u00fd t\u0159\u00edstrikov\u00fd Butterfly tak\u00e9 na t\u00e9to stran\u011b a mus\u00edm se spokojit se stejnou kombinac\u00ed, pouze s\u00a0rozsahem strike jeden bod. V\u00fdpisem <strong>2 x Short Call 135<\/strong> z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1m +332 USD a s n\u00e1kupem <strong>Long Call 136<\/strong> m\u00e1m v\u00fddaj -143 USD, celkov\u011b si p\u0159ipisuji <strong>+189 USD<\/strong> za <strong>Call Butterfly<\/strong> na Call stran\u011b. Za <strong>oba Butterflies<\/strong> tak z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1m +534 USD a +189 USD, tedy celkem <strong>+723 USD<\/strong>. M\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na p\u016fvodn\u00ed Long Strangle byly -765 USD, nyn\u00ed jsem je zredukoval o +723 USD na <strong>-42 USD<\/strong>. Toto je m\u00e1 celkov\u00e1 <strong>nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta<\/strong>, kterou mohu utr\u017eit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Ztr\u00e1tu -42 USD bych utrp\u011bl p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se cena p\u0159i expiraci bude pohybovat <strong>mimo m\u00e9 Butterflies<\/strong>, tedy <strong>nad 136 USD<\/strong> nebo <strong>pod 127 USD<\/strong>, a tak\u00e9 v\u00a0\u00fazk\u00e9m p\u00e1smu mezi cenami m\u00e9ho p\u016fvodn\u00edho <strong>Long Strangle +133\/+134<\/strong>. Pokud z\u016fstane \u201euvnit\u0159 mot\u00fdl\u016f\u201c, v\u017edycky bude pozice vykazovat n\u011bjakou kone\u010dnou cenu, za kterou budu moci p\u0159i expiraci tuto kone\u010dnou pozici prodat a pokud bude prodejn\u00ed cena vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e +42 USD (m\u00e9 n\u00e1klady), mohu si p\u0159i\u010d\u00edst k\u00a0dobru jak\u00fdsi profit. Nap\u0159\u00edklad, pokud by cena p\u0159i expiraci byla 128.20 USD, znamenalo by to, \u017ee Long Put 133 a Short Put 130 (Put Bear Spread +133\/-130) by vykazovala maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed profit +300 USD. Druhou Short Put 130 bych musel likvidovat jej\u00edm prodejem, p\u0159i expiraci by m\u011b to vy\u0161lo na zhruba -180 USD. P\u0159i m\u00fdch n\u00e1kladech -42 USD bych tak utr\u017eil +300 USD za Put Bear Spread +133\/-130 a vynalo\u017eil -180 USD na zbylou Short Put 130. Z\u00edskal bych tak +78 USD profit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>Earnings m\u011b nyn\u00ed velmi zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed<\/strong>, m\u00e1m maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017enou ztr\u00e1tu a omezenou mo\u017enost maxim\u00e1ln\u00edho profitu. Na Call stran\u011b +100 USD rozsah strike Butterfly \u2013 42 USD n\u00e1klady = <strong>+58 USD maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd profit<\/strong>, pokud by cena skon\u010dila na \u00farovn\u00ed strike Short Call opc\u00ed.\u00a0 Na Put stran\u011b +300 USD rozsah strike Butterfly \u2013 42 USD n\u00e1klady = <strong>+258 USD maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd profit<\/strong>, pokud by cena skon\u010dila na \u00farovn\u00ed strike Short Call opc\u00ed. Risk\/reward na Call stran\u011b je zhruba 1:1 a na Put stran\u011b pak \u010din\u00ed 1:5.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0uk\u00e1zce tohoto obchodu <strong>bych m\u011bl sm\u016flu<\/strong>. P\u0159i expiraci byla cena FB na hodnot\u011b <strong>120.75 USD<\/strong>. Cena tak prorazila v\u0161echny strike Put opc\u00ed a skon\u010dila mimo Put Butterfly. Potvrdil jsem <strong>plnou ztr\u00e1tu ve v\u00fd\u0161i -42 USD<\/strong>. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"766\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=766\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-expiryt.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"588,627\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Butter expiryt\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-expiryt.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-766 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-expiryt.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"588\" height=\"627\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-expiryt.jpg 588w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-expiryt-141x150.jpg 141w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Butter-expiryt-281x300.jpg 281w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 588px) 100vw, 588px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Mohl bych nyn\u00ed s\u00a0l\u00edtost\u00ed zavzpom\u00ednat, pro\u010d jsem z\u00a0pozice Long Strangle nevystoupil s\u00a0minim\u00e1ln\u00edm profitem a pro\u010d jsem se pou\u0161t\u011bl do t\u00e9to varianty. Na takovou l\u00edtost nen\u00ed m\u00edsto. P\u016fvodn\u00ed n\u00e1klady ve v\u00fd\u0161i -765 jsem zredukoval na -42 USD a je\u0161t\u011b si vytvo\u0159il prostor pro mo\u017en\u00fd slu\u0161n\u00fd profit, kdyby pokles po Earnings nebyl tak dramatick\u00fd. Toto jsem v\u0161echno ale nemohl dop\u0159edu v\u016fbec v\u011bd\u011bt nebo p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u0159\u00eddil jsem se v\u0161ak pouze jedinou ideou, kterou bylo co nejv\u00edce redukovat n\u00e1klady s vyhl\u00eddkou slu\u0161n\u00e9ho profitu p\u0159i omezen\u00e9 mo\u017enosti ztr\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Rozbor mo\u017en\u00fdch strategi\u00ed na posledn\u00edch \u010dty\u0159ech Earnings je pouhou uk\u00e1zkou, jak <strong>t\u011b\u017eit z\u00a0vlastnost\u00ed a chov\u00e1n\u00ed op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f<\/strong> p\u0159ed vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm v\u00fdsledk\u016f \u2013 Earnings a m\u00edt co nejv\u00edce doprovodn\u00fdch efekt\u016f na sv\u00e9 stran\u011b. V\u0161echny uk\u00e1zky m\u011bly spole\u010dn\u00e9ho jmenovatele, <strong>omezenou mo\u017enost ztr\u00e1ty<\/strong> a <strong>slu\u0161n\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky na dobr\u00fd profit<\/strong>. Mohl bych samoz\u0159ejm\u011b v\u00a0dan\u00fd okam\u017eik nasadit jinou kombinaci a dos\u00e1hnout lep\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdsledku, mohl bych se tak\u00e9 nechat vystavit v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu mo\u017en\u00e9mu profitu tak, \u017ee bych u jednotliv\u00fdch kombinac\u00ed nechal prostor pro v\u00fdsledek Earnings, u Debit Spread\u016f nap\u0159\u00edklad nevypisovat ob\u011b Short opce najednou, ale nechat jednu z\u00a0opc\u00ed k\u00a0v\u00fdpisu a\u017e po pohybu na Earnings a dos\u00e1hnou lep\u0161\u00edho pln\u011bn\u00ed a vy\u0161\u0161\u00edho pr\u00e9mia z\u00a0takov\u00e9ho dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdpisu, stejn\u011b tak u kombinace Box jsem mohl postupovat stejn\u011b a nechat jednu stranu Boxu (Short opci) otev\u0159enou a pokusit se n\u00e1sledn\u011b z\u00edskat v\u00edce pr\u00e9mia jej\u00edm v\u00fdpisem. Takov\u00e9 postupy v\u0161ak zahrnuj\u00ed ji\u017e n\u011bjakou p\u0159edstavu o budouc\u00edm pohybu a to moc nem\u00e1m r\u00e1d. Nav\u00edc by je mohla komplikovat velmi n\u00edzk\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 Implied Volatility po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f, tak\u017ee by o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cena takov\u00e9 vypisovan\u00e9 opce musela b\u00fdt kompenzov\u00e1na opravdu razantn\u00edm pohybem na podkladu, tento v\u0161ak nemohu nijak odhadnout. V\u0161echny takov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstupy se pak daj\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u011b kombinovat nebo vylep\u0161ovat, samoz\u0159ejm\u011b lze nal\u00e9zt i jin\u00e9 taktiky a strategie, jak postupn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edt v\u0161ech okolnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 toto obdob\u00ed nab\u00edz\u00ed. Je to ji\u017e na ka\u017ed\u00e9m, jak se s\u00a0takovou v\u00fdzvou vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0\u00a0 \u2026pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00edho \u010dl\u00e1nku. Bez n\u011bjak\u00e9ho dal\u0161\u00edho epick\u00e9ho \u00favodu se posunu rovnou do historie a zastav\u00edm se u historicky druh\u00e9ho nejmlad\u0161\u00edho vyhla\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed Earnings z\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00edho pohledu (kdy p\u00ed\u0161u tento \u010dl\u00e1nek), kdy\u017e s p\u0159edchoz\u00edm vyhla\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm jsem se vypo\u0159\u00e1dal v\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku. Podm\u00ednky vstupu jsou stejn\u00e9 jako v\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00ed uk\u00e1zce, otev\u00edr\u00e1m stejn\u00fd obchod s\u00a0opcemi na <a href=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=756\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<i class=\"ion-ios-arrow-right read-more-right\"><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":767,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[35],"tags":[36,18],"class_list":["post-756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-volatilita","tag-earnings","tag-implied-volatility"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E5-2.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8zd8A-cc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":783,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=783","url_meta":{"origin":756,"position":0},"title":"Earnings &#8211; VI.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"17.9.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Zlat\u00e1 fyzika. Pokud pojedu z\u00a0Prahy do Brna a v\u00edm, \u017ee je to 200 km, tak pokud pojedu stovkou, budu tam za dv\u011b hodiny. K\u00a0tomu sta\u010d\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu fyzikovi jednoduch\u00fd vzorec o vztahu rychlosti a vzd\u00e1lenosti mezi dv\u011bma pevn\u00fdmi body trasy. Pokud bych si, jako fyzik, takovou cestovatelskou ud\u00e1lost cht\u011bl modelovat,\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E-6.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E-6.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E-6.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":733,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=733","url_meta":{"origin":756,"position":1},"title":"Earnings &#8211; V. (prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st)","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"8.9.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Pozor, bude i video!!!...a bude to tak\u00e9 hodn\u011b o Facebooku. Ud\u011blal jsem to tak schv\u00e1ln\u011b, proto\u017ee po t\u0159ech nudn\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch poset\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsly, popisy strategi\u00ed a obr\u00e1zky s\u00a0grafy, ze kter\u00fdch nakonec vyplynulo, \u017ee to je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 k\u00a0ni\u010demu, by se mohla vytvo\u0159it ur\u010dit\u00e1 frustrace z\u00a0pokusu zobchodovat fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed ud\u00e1lost, jako je vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E5-uvodni-obraz.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E5-uvodni-obraz.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E5-uvodni-obraz.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":671,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=671","url_meta":{"origin":756,"position":2},"title":"Earnings &#8211; III.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"13.8.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0 \u201ePokud ti sed\u00ed zkou\u0161en\u00e1 bota \u2013 kup si i tu druhou\u201c, by mohlo b\u00fdt \u00favodn\u00ed motto k\u00a0pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00edho \u010dl\u00e1nku o vyhodnocen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f k\u00a0zobchodov\u00e1n\u00ed Earnings pomoc\u00ed ATM Long Straddle a jeho mo\u017en\u00fdch vylep\u0161en\u00ed.\u00a0Proto\u017ee jsem p\u0159irovnal po\u0159izov\u00e1n\u00ed Long Straddle v\u00a0p\u0159edve\u010der Earnings k\u00a0n\u00e1kupu posledn\u00edho modelu ly\u017e\u00ed v\u00a0b\u0159eznu ve Svat\u00e9m Mo\u0159ici, nutn\u011b vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/E3.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/E3.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/E3.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1030,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=1030","url_meta":{"origin":756,"position":3},"title":"VIX technologie + Akciov\u00e9 indexy","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"14.11.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku o VIX Indexu \u00a0jsem popsal metodu jeho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu, abych se v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku sna\u017eil uk\u00e1zat, jak vyu\u017e\u00edt tento v\u00fdpo\u010det pro stanoven\u00ed \u201ejin\u00fdch VIX\u016f\u201c pro jin\u00e9 podklady, nap\u0159\u00edklad velmi likvidn\u00ed akcie. \u00dadaje o takov\u00fdch vypo\u010dten\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch lze nal\u00e9zt na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch CBOE s\u00a0jej\u00ed ka\u017edodenn\u00ed aktualizac\u00ed, tak\u017ee pro obchodn\u00edka t\u011bchto podkladov\u00fdch aktiv\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita a jej\u00ed Deriv\u00e1ty\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita a jej\u00ed Deriv\u00e1ty","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=37"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/main-2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/main-2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/main-2.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/main-2.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":614,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=614","url_meta":{"origin":756,"position":4},"title":"Earnings &#8211; I.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"17.7.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f firem je pro op\u010dn\u00edho obchodn\u00edka velk\u00e1 v\u00fdzva. Je to pastva pro obchodn\u00edky s\u00a0volatilitou a je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee je velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 b\u00fdt obchodn\u011b konzistentn\u011b profitabiln\u00ed, proto\u017ee je to velmi n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je doprov\u00e1zeno obrovskou m\u00edrou nejistoty. Kde je velk\u00e1 nejistota a nap\u011bt\u00ed, tam je tak\u00e9\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/E-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/E-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/E-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":694,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=694","url_meta":{"origin":756,"position":5},"title":"Earnings &#8211; IV.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"30.8.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Vypad\u00e1 to, jako bych se vzdaloval p\u016fvodn\u00ed my\u0161lence o obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed volatility, jako element\u00e1rn\u00edmu prvku a z\u00e1kladn\u00edho stavebn\u00edho kamene op\u010dn\u00edch obchod\u016f a vytv\u00e1\u0159el ve sv\u00fdch dvou p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch jak\u00e9si komplikovan\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy na historick\u00fdch datech, kter\u00e9 nav\u00edc ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee takov\u00e9 testovan\u00e9 obchodovan\u00e9 strategie n\u011bjak pou\u017eiteln\u011b nefunguj\u00ed. Pokud tvrd\u00edm \u201eA\u201c a existuje\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/E4.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/E4.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/E4.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=756"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/756\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3808,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/756\/revisions\/3808"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}