{"id":694,"date":"2017-08-30T11:24:28","date_gmt":"2017-08-30T09:24:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=694"},"modified":"2022-08-14T13:27:00","modified_gmt":"2022-08-14T11:27:00","slug":"earnings-iv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=694","title":{"rendered":"Earnings – IV."},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 \u00a0Vypad\u00e1 to, jako bych se vzdaloval p\u016fvodn\u00ed my\u0161lence o obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed volatility, jako element\u00e1rn\u00edmu prvku a z\u00e1kladn\u00edho stavebn\u00edho kamene op\u010dn\u00edch obchod\u016f a vytv\u00e1\u0159el ve sv\u00fdch dvou p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch jak\u00e9si komplikovan\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy na historick\u00fdch datech, kter\u00e9 nav\u00edc ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee takov\u00e9 testovan\u00e9 obchodovan\u00e9 strategie n\u011bjak pou\u017eiteln\u011b nefunguj\u00ed. Pokud tvrd\u00edm \u201eA\u201c a existuje \u201eB\u201c, tak mus\u00edm s \u201eb\u00e9\u010dkem\u201c ven. Pokud existuje \u201eC\u201c, tak plat\u00ed stejn\u00fd postup. Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek je o tomto „C“. Obchodovat Earnings lze mnoha zp\u016fsoby. Nejd\u0159\u00edve jsem v\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku Earnings \u2013 II.<\/strong> <\/a><\/span>\u00a0uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee obchodovat pomoc\u00ed Long opc\u00ed po\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch mechanicky t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed Earnings se ned\u00e1 n\u011bjak zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b vylep\u0161it po\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm dal\u0161\u00edch op\u010dn\u00edch pozic do slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kombinac\u00ed. V\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku Earnings \u2013 III.<\/strong><\/a> <\/span>jsem situaci obr\u00e1til a zkou\u0161el takov\u00fd mechanick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup aplikovat na obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed Earnings pomoc\u00ed Short opc\u00ed a jejich p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdch vylep\u0161en\u00ed. V\u00fdsledky historick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy nejsou nijak systematick\u00e9 pro oba d\u0159\u00edve popisovan\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed syst\u00e9my se sv\u00fdmi dal\u0161\u00edmi \u00fapravami, co\u017e jsem demonstroval na t\u0159ech spole\u010dnostech, kter\u00e9 se p\u0159i Earnings chovaly diametr\u00e1ln\u011b ka\u017ed\u00e1 jinak. Pokud vyplynuly n\u011bjak\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed profity, byly v\u011bt\u0161inou zp\u016fsobeny neracion\u00e1ln\u00edm chov\u00e1n\u00edm ceny v\u00a0souvislosti z\u00a0Earnings. Neracionalitu pak ale mohu vid\u011bt pouze tak, \u017ee se pod\u00edv\u00e1m na tyto v\u00fdsledky zp\u011btn\u011b na z\u00e1klad\u011b historick\u00fdch dat a nemohu jakkoliv odhadnout, \u017ee takov\u00e9 minul\u00e9 excesy budou z\u00e1rukou exces\u016f budouc\u00edch. U spole\u010dnosti IBM mohu nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee systematick\u00e9 zklam\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f p\u0159i Earnings bude od p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f ji\u017e v\u017edy optimistick\u00e9 a naopak z\u00a0drakonicky se pohybuj\u00edc\u00edch cen po Earnings u spole\u010dnosti NFLX se stane cenov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj pokorn\u00e9ho ber\u00e1nka, kdy\u017e tato spole\u010dnost se v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9m budoucnosti za\u010dne chovat jako tuctov\u00e1 medi\u00e1ln\u00ed spole\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nechci popisovan\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstupy zatracovat, n\u011bkter\u00e9 p\u0159i \u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9m vylep\u0161en\u00ed a pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed jin\u00fdch tr\u017en\u00edch souvislost\u00ed mohou celkem slu\u0161n\u011b fungovat, mohu si ale z\u00a0t\u011bchto n\u011bkolika p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f vz\u00edt do budoucnosti jedno vypozorovan\u00e9 ponau\u010den\u00ed. Pokud bych mohl shrnout testovan\u00e9 strategie po\u0159izovan\u00e9 v\u00a0p\u0159edve\u010der Earnings, tak bych ji\u017e mohl p\u0159ece jen vyvodit n\u011bjak\u00fd obecn\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br. Obchodovat Earnings tak, \u017ee vystav\u00edm svou pozici mo\u017enosti neomezen\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty na obou stran\u00e1ch op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce nen\u00ed dobr\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed a zase naopak, pokou\u0161et se takovou situaci zobchodovat pouze tak, \u017ee m\u00e1m neomezenou mo\u017enost profitu je \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm velmi n\u00e1kladn\u00fdm, kter\u00e9 se nemus\u00ed v\u017edy vyplatit (pokud po\u0159\u00edd\u00edm takov\u00e9 kombinace velmi draze jako v uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edkladech). Mo\u017enost neomezen\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty je kompenzov\u00e1na mal\u00fdmi profity z\u00edskan\u00fdch pr\u00e9mi\u00ed, kde\u017eto mo\u017enost neomezen\u00e9ho profitu je kompenzov\u00e1na zna\u010dn\u00fdmi obchodn\u00edmi n\u00e1klady na vstupy do op\u010dn\u00edch pozic. Dobr\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky p\u0159inesla kombinace obou mo\u017enost\u00ed. Za existence p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty po\u0159izuji pozice tak, abych mohl m\u00edt p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00fd zisk. \u010c\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed bude rozd\u00edl t\u011bchto hodnot (p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta\/p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00fd zisk), t\u00edm l\u00e9pe se bude strategii v\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu da\u0159it. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159ijdu o mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 profity vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch pohyb\u016f u strategi\u00ed s\u00a0neomezenou mo\u017enost\u00ed zisku, ale tak\u00e9 n\u00e1s nezdrt\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, pokud p\u016fjde pozice drasticky proti mn\u011b ve strategi\u00edch s\u00a0neomezenou mo\u017enost\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 V\u00a0obou \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch jsem vstupoval do r\u016fzn\u00fdch pozic sou\u010dasn\u011b na obou stran\u00e1ch op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce, v\u0161echny strategie tak m\u011bly spole\u010dn\u00e9ho jmenovatele \u2013 nem\u011bl jsem ambice vyhodnocovat sm\u011br mo\u017en\u00e9ho pohybu<\/strong> po Earnings a spol\u00e9hal jsem se pouze na to, \u017ee pohyb n\u011bjak\u00fd nastane, nicm\u00e9n\u011b jsem jeho sm\u011br nijak nepredikoval. Tak\u00e9 jsem spol\u00e9hal, \u017ee po Earnings siln\u011b klesne hodnota Implied Volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Podstatou tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku pak bude vyhodnocen\u00ed, jestli je spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 se v\u00a0takov\u00e9m obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed Earnings zbavit mo\u017enosti neur\u010dit budouc\u00ed sm\u011br cenov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje podkladu po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f a z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u010derpat z\u00a0pozn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee dobr\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstupem je omezit riziko a nechat si v\u00fdhled na slu\u0161n\u00fd zisk. Je to tedy jak\u00e9si vysloven\u00ed \u201eC\u201c z\u00a0\u00favodu tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku. Proto\u017ee jsem ji\u017e v\u00a0minul\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch avizoval sv\u016fj marn\u00fd boj s\u00a0odhadem budouc\u00edho pohybu, budu se sna\u017eit nahradit tuto neur\u010ditost<\/strong> a neuchopitelnost zaji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00edm pozice<\/strong> proti nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji a pozorovat, jak by se jednotliv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstupy chovaly v\u00a0historii.<\/span><\/p>\n

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ATM Long opce + Akcie<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee se asi nenajde trader, kter\u00fd by se pokou\u0161el obchodovat Earnings na z\u00e1klad\u011b p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee \u201eCaterpillar prost\u011b p\u016fjde po v\u00fdsledc\u00edch nahoru\u201c tak, \u017ee nakoup\u00ed Long akcie t\u00e9to spole\u010dnosti v\u00a0p\u0159edve\u010der Earnings, aby si n\u00e1sledn\u011b pro\u017eil bezesnou moc s\u00a0obavami, jestli se jeho p\u0159edpoklad potvrd\u00ed \u010di nikoliv. Proto\u017ee dr\u017een\u00ed akcie m\u00e1 jenom dv\u011b polohy \u2013 profit nebo ztr\u00e1tu, tak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jeho o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed po Earnings napln\u011bno a nad\u011blen\u00fd profit m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zna\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159i podstatn\u00e9m uptrendu ceny. Naopak, p\u0159i zklam\u00e1n\u00ed a hlubok\u00e9m poklesu ceny m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt ztr\u00e1ta obrovsk\u00e1. Op\u010dn\u00ed obchodn\u00edk m\u00e1 k\u00a0ale dispozici n\u00e1stroje \u2013 op\u010dn\u00ed kontrakty, kter\u00fdmi m\u016f\u017ee riziko z\u00a0nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje eliminovat na p\u0159ijatelnou m\u00edru.<\/span><\/p>\n

ATM Long Put + Long akcie<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Budu se tedy dr\u017eet sv\u00e9ho p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee nemohu bezpe\u010dn\u011b v\u011bd\u011bt, kam se cena po Earnings pohne a takov\u00fd odhad opust\u00edm. P\u0159istoup\u00edm pouze na dojem, \u017ee cena po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed bude jenom stoupat nebo jenom klesat a pokud se tak nestane a m\u00e1 p\u0159edstava o pohybu se nenapln\u00ed, budu za takov\u00fd omyl ochoten zaplatit pouze ur\u010ditou sumu pen\u011bz<\/strong>. Na n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e9m obr\u00e1zku je vyobrazena pozice, kterou bych zaujal, kdybych nabyl dojmu, \u017ee cena po Earnings bude pouze r\u016fst, ale mo\u017enost poklesu, tedy cena m\u00e9ho omylu, je vt\u011blena do n\u00e1kupu \u00a0zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edho op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0 Situace zn\u00e1zor\u0148uje vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Earnings na titulu CAT, kter\u00fd vyhla\u0161oval v\u00fdsledky 25.4.2017 p\u0159ed otev\u0159en\u00edm trh\u016f. Je zachycena m\u00e1 pozice na Close p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho dne, kdy jsem nakoupil 100 x Long akcie<\/strong> za cenu 96,81 USD\/kus a sou\u010dasn\u011b po\u0159\u00eddil ATM<\/strong>\u00a0Long Put opci na strike 97<\/strong> za cenu -159 USD. Utratil jsem -9.681 USD za akcie a d\u00e1le utratil -159 USD za opci, celkem jsou m\u00e9 n\u00e1klady -9.840 USD<\/strong>. Co p\u0159esn\u011b m\u00e1 pozice znamen\u00e1? Celou akciovou pozici jsem zajistil nakoupenou Long Put 97 opc\u00ed, kter\u00e1 mi zaru\u010duje, \u017ee kdykoliv mohu jej\u00ed Exercise tyto akcie prodat za cenu strike, tedy za 97 USD, a z\u00edskat zp\u011bt n\u00e1klady ve v\u00fd\u0161i +9.700 USD. Toto se mi vyplat\u00ed v\u017edy, kdy\u017e cena akcie klesne pod 97 USD a m\u016f\u017ee klesnout kamkoliv, kam si jen mohu p\u0159edstavit. P\u0159i vynalo\u017een\u00fdch n\u00e1kladech -9.840 USD je pak \u201ecena za omyl\u201c<\/strong> ve v\u00fd\u0161i -140 USD<\/strong> (-9.840 USD + 9.700 USD), nic hor\u0161\u00edho se mi nem\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t. Naopak, p\u0159i uptrendu mohu dos\u00e1hnout na maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed profit<\/strong>, kter\u00fd bude p\u0159edstavovat pohyb nad \u010d\u00e1stku, kter\u00e1 mi uhrad\u00ed v\u0161echny n\u00e1klady, tedy nad cenu CAT 98.40 USD (toto je Break Even cel\u00e9 pozice). Nad toto cenou ji\u017e budu moci po\u010d\u00edtat pouze profit.<\/span><\/p>\n

ATM Long Call + Short akcie<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Zcela identickou a velmi jednoduchou strategii mohu aplikovat v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee jsem si usmyslel, \u017ee po Earnings budou akcie klesat<\/strong> a j\u00e1 chci takov\u00fd pohyb vytrvale a mechanicky obchodovat za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee pokud se m\u00fdl\u00edm, tak jsem ochoten za takovou chybu op\u011bt zaplatit, nicm\u00e9n\u011b vyhl\u00eddka na neomezen\u00fd profit mi z\u016fstane stejn\u00e1, tak jako u p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edpadu. Na n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e9m obr\u00e1zku je takov\u00e1 jednoduch\u00e1 kombinace na Earnings spole\u010dnosti CAT v\u00a0term\u00ednu jako u p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho p\u0159\u00edpadu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Obr\u00e1zek zn\u00e1zor\u0148uje po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed 100 x Short akci\u00ed CAT<\/strong> za cenu 96.81 USD za sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ATM Long Call opce na strike 97<\/strong> za cenu -140 USD. Celkov\u011b jsem za prodej akci\u00ed inkasoval na m\u016fj \u00fa\u010det +9.681 USD a vynalo\u017eil -140 USD na n\u00e1kup Long Call 97 opce, celkov\u011b jsem tak p\u0159ijal +9.541 USD<\/strong>. Pokud po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Earnings budou m\u00e9 Short akcie stoupat, p\u016fjde pozice proti mn\u011b a m\u016fj sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 o downtrendu se nenapln\u00ed. Proveden\u00edm Exercise m\u00e9 Long Call opce na strike 97 v\u0161ak v\u017edy budu schopen tyto akcie koupit zp\u011bt za cenu strike, tedy 97 USD za kus a vynalo\u017e\u00edm na takovou akci ne v\u00edce ne\u017e -9.700 USD. V\u00a0takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by byl rozd\u00edl -159 USD<\/strong> (+9.541 USD – 9.700 USD) a tato \u010d\u00e1stka p\u0159edstavuje maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017enost prod\u011blku<\/strong> na nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9m p\u0159edpokladu o sm\u011bru pohybu. Pokud by se p\u0159edstava o poklesu naplnila, tak od ceny CAT ve v\u00fd\u0161i 95.41 USD (Break Even pozice) a n\u00ed\u017ee mohu o\u010dek\u00e1vat pouze profity, kter\u00e9 mi nad\u011bl\u00ed Short akcie v\u00a0p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9m downtrendu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Vypad\u00e1 to na prvn\u00ed pohled velmi jednodu\u0161e a bude velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 sledovat, jestli takov\u00e9 velmi jednoduch\u00e9 strategie v\u016fbec funguj\u00ed v\u00a0porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0technikami z p\u0159edchoz\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

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ITM Long opce + Akcie<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 P\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed kombinace akci\u00ed a zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch Long opc\u00ed po\u0159\u00edzen\u00e1 v\u00a0p\u0159edve\u010der Earnings m\u00e1 jednu z\u00e1kladn\u00ed vadu na kr\u00e1se, zmi\u0148ovanou ji\u017e v\u00a0p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch. ATM Long opce nakoupen\u00e9 v\u00a0takov\u00fd \u010das jsou velmi drah\u00e9<\/strong>, proto\u017ee jsou po\u0159izov\u00e1ny v\u00a0obdob\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed Implied Volatility a proto\u017ee jsou nav\u00edc ATM, tak v\u011bt\u0161inou neobsahuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou \u201evnit\u0159n\u00ed hodnotu\u201c a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u017edy jej\u00ed cena p\u0159edstavuje pouze pr\u00e9mium<\/strong>. Jako bych platil za vzduch v\u00a0pneumatik\u00e1ch auta, kter\u00e9 m\u011b veze k\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9mu c\u00edli. Vylep\u0161en\u00ed takov\u00e9 vady bych mohl dos\u00e1hnout t\u00edm, \u017ee posunu strike zaji\u0161\u0165ovac\u00edch Long opc\u00ed v\u00edce \u201edo pen\u011bz\u201c. Vyjdu ze z\u00e1kladn\u00edho p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm v\u00edce je opce v\u00a0pen\u011bz\u00edch<\/strong>, t\u00edm m\u00e1 v\u00edce vnit\u0159n\u00ed hodnoty na \u00fakor pr\u00e9mia<\/strong>. Na obr\u00e1zku je vid\u011bt pom\u011br v\u00fd\u0161e pr\u00e9mia obsa\u017een\u00e9ho v\u00a0cen\u00e1ch jednotliv\u00fdch Long Call opc\u00ed u titulu CAT v\u00a0p\u0159edve\u010der Earnings<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Je vid\u011bt, \u017ee p\u0159i cen\u011b CAT 96.81 USD m\u00e1 opce Long Call na strike 97 cenu 140 USD a tato cena je tvo\u0159ena pouze pr\u00e9miem, op\u010dn\u00ed kontrakt tak nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou vnit\u0159n\u00ed hodnotu. Na ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch postupn\u00fdch strike je vid\u011bt \u00fabytek pr\u00e9mia na \u00fakor vnit\u0159n\u00ed hodnoty. Pouh\u00fd posun strike<\/strong> z\u00a0hodnoty 97 na strike 96 (prvn\u00ed strike \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c) znamen\u00e1 \u00fasporu pr\u00e9mia ve v\u00fd\u0161i +25 USD<\/strong>. Posunut\u00edm takov\u00e9ho strike v\u00edce \u201edo pen\u011bz\u201c pak mohu \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b kompenzovat \u201edrahotu\u201c vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0nevhodnosti okam\u017eiku po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed takov\u00e9 Long opce zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00ed po\u0159izovan\u00e9 akcie pro zobchodov\u00e1n\u00ed Earnings.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 Posunut\u00edm ochrann\u00fdch opc\u00ed \u201edo pen\u011bz\u201c neposkytuji zaji\u0161\u0165ovan\u00e9mu podkladu \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd prostor pro mo\u017enost pohybovat se v\u00a0nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9m sm\u011bru na rozd\u00edl od zaji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed ATM opcemi, takov\u00fd komfort je ale kompenzov\u00e1n m\u00edrnou zm\u011bnou Break Even bod\u016f, jak bude patrn\u00e9 z d\u00e1le uveden\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Op\u011bt tak mohu p\u0159i sv\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edstupu v\u00a0hled\u00e1n\u00ed neur\u010ditosti spr\u00e1vn\u00e9ho sm\u011bru s\u00a0p\u0159ijet\u00edm p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 mo\u017enosti ztr\u00e1ty z\u00a0nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9ho \u00fasudku vytvo\u0159it n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed kombinace. Op\u011bt budu nejd\u0159\u00edve p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee akcie by mohla po Earnings r\u016fst.<\/span><\/p>\n

ITM Long Put + Long akcie<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Vylep\u0161en\u00ed proti p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edmu p\u0159\u00edkladu tak spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0tom, \u017ee jsem svou ochrannou Long Put posunul<\/strong> o jeden strike v\u00edce \u201edo pen\u011bz\u201c<\/strong>, nam\u00edsto strike 97 jsem volil strike 98, abych neutratil mnoho pen\u011bz za pr\u00e9mium. Co to bude pro mou jednoduchou pozici znamenat ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed variantou s\u00a0opc\u00ed na ATM strike? Op\u011bt jsem po\u0159\u00eddil 100 x Long akcie<\/strong> za 96.81 USD a utratil za n\u011b -9.681 USD a nakoupil ITM Long Call 98<\/strong> opci za -224 USD, celkem jsem tedy za celou pozici utratil -9.905 USD. Pokud za\u010dnou akcie po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed klesat a napln\u00ed se nespr\u00e1vn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, mohu proveden\u00edm Exercise Long Put 98 v\u017edy sv\u00e9 akcie prodat za cenu strike a dodat tak na sv\u016fj \u00fa\u010det +9.800 USD. Toto bych mohl prov\u00e1d\u011bt v\u017edy, kdyby cena CAT byla pod cenou 98 USD. Proto\u017ee jsem m\u011bl n\u00e1klady -9.905 USD a Exercise bych z\u00edskal +9.800 USD byla by m\u00e1 maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta <\/strong>ve v\u00fd\u0161i -105 USD<\/strong>. Nic hor\u0161\u00edho by se mi nemohlo st\u00e1t. V\u00a0porovn\u00e1n\u00edm se strategi\u00ed s\u00a0opc\u00ed ATM je takov\u00e1 maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta redukov\u00e1na ze -140 USD na -105 USD, je tedy o +35 USD men\u0161\u00ed<\/strong>. Nev\u00fdhodou ale na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b jsou vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady na pozici s\u00a0d\u016fsledkem nutn\u00e9ho uptrendu nad cenu 99,05 USD na akcii CAT (Break Even bod), aby m\u00e1 pozice byla profitabiln\u00ed resp. aby zaplatila alespo\u0148 n\u00e1klady na po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pozice. Kdekoliv nad tuto cenu m\u016f\u017eu po\u010d\u00edtat se ziskem, kter\u00fd je teoreticky neomezen\u00fd.<\/strong> Posun strike v\u00edce \u201edo pen\u011bz\u201c m\u00e1 tak za n\u00e1sledek sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed hodnoty maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty za cenu posunut\u00ed Break Even bodu cel\u00e9 strategie o mal\u00fd kousek v\u00fd\u0161e oproti technice s\u00a0ATM opc\u00ed. Je dlu\u017eno pro \u00faplnost podotknout, \u017ee mezi strike m\u00e9 Long Put 98 opce a cenou 99.05 le\u017e\u00ed p\u00e1smo ztr\u00e1ty, kter\u00e1 je v\u0161ak v\u017edy ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta ve v\u00fd\u0161i -105 USD, podle toho, kde cena CAT v\u00a0tomto cenov\u00e9m intervalu skon\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 Zcela obdobn\u011b a na stejn\u00fdch principech by mohla b\u00fdt postavena spekulace na pokles podkladu po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Earnings s\u00a0Long opc\u00ed se strike posunut\u00fdm v\u00edce \u201edo pen\u011bz\u201c. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je takov\u00e1 pozice vyobrazena<\/span><\/p>\n

ITM Long Call + Short akcie<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Na rozd\u00edl od prvn\u00ed varianty z\u00a0Long Call na ATM strike 97 jsem sice stejn\u011b zaujal pozici se 100 x Short akciemi<\/strong> za cenu 96.81, za kter\u00e9 jsem inkasoval +9.681 USD, sou\u010dasn\u011b jsem ale po\u0159\u00eddil ITM Long Call opce na ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm strike 96<\/strong> za -196 USD. Celkov\u011b jsem tak na sv\u016fj \u00fa\u010det p\u0159ijal +9.485 USD. Obdobn\u011b pak mohu analyzovat situaci, kdy nebude napln\u011bn p\u0159edpoklad s\u00a0poklesem akci\u00ed po Earnings a tyto za\u010dnou stoupat. Kdekoliv nad cenou 96 USD mohu prov\u00e9st Exercise m\u00e9 Long Call opce na strike 96 a akcie za 96 USD nakoup\u00edm zp\u011bt a vynalo\u017e\u00edm na tuto transakci maxim\u00e1ln\u011b -9.600 USD. Proto\u017ee jsem p\u0159ijal -9.485 USD bude m\u00e1 maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1ta -115 USD<\/strong> (+9.485 USD \u2013 9.600 USD). tato ztr\u00e1ta je men\u0161\u00ed o +44 USD<\/strong> jako v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b varianty s\u00a0ATM Long Call opc\u00ed. Abych na cel\u00e9 transakci vyd\u011blal, mus\u00ed m\u00e9 Short akcie p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u011b klesnout nejm\u00e9n\u011b na cenu 94.85 (Break Even bod pozice), abych pokryl n\u00e1klady na mou pozici, jak\u00fdkoliv vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pokles pak bude znamenat pouze profit. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00e9m backtestu pak budu cht\u00edt zjistit, jestli se takov\u00e9 dokonalej\u0161\u00ed zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed tak\u00e9 n\u011bjak projev\u00ed na celkov\u00e9m obrazu hledan\u00e9 profitability.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Collar<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Navrhovan\u00e9 zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed pozice proti neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9mu pohybu Long opc\u00ed pono\u0159enou v\u00edce \u201edo pen\u011bz\u201c bylo motivov\u00e1no snahou o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed hodnoty pr\u00e9mia, kter\u00e9 je obsa\u017eeno v\u00a0cen\u011b nakupovan\u00e9 opce. Stejnou motivaci by mohlo m\u00edt vypisov\u00e1n\u00ed OTM Short opc\u00ed<\/strong> na vzd\u00e1len\u00fdch strike se snahou z\u00edskat tak dal\u0161\u00ed pr\u00e9mium a celkov\u011b vylep\u0161it p\u0159\u00edjmovou str\u00e1nku obchodu. Op\u011bt pak mohu spekulovat na pohyb v\u00a0obou sm\u011brech, podle toho, kterou variantu popsanou v\u00a0p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm textu zvol\u00edm. Budu tak vytv\u00e1\u0159et strategii Collar<\/strong><\/a><\/span>\u00a0na obou stran\u00e1ch op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce podle toho, kter\u00fd sm\u011br budouc\u00edho pohybu budu preferovat. Proto\u017ee je v\u017edy \u201en\u011bco za n\u011bco\u201c, tak tak\u00e9 vyps\u00e1n\u00ed OTM Short opce bude m\u00edt na celkovou pozici sv\u016fj vliv. Z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho pr\u00e9mia sice zp\u016fsob\u00ed vylep\u0161en\u00ed celkov\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f na pozici a zp\u016fsob\u00ed posun Break Even bod\u016f v\u00a0m\u016fj prosp\u011bch, ale strike vypsan\u00e9 opce bude znamenat omezenou mo\u017enost maxim\u00e1ln\u00edho profitu<\/strong> vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edho z\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9ho pohybu za strike t\u011bchto Short opc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Collar s ITM Long Put<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u00a0 P\u0159edpokladem pro takovou op\u010dn\u00ed kombinaci je o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee cena se po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Earnings pohne sm\u011brem nahoru,<\/strong> pohyb ale nebude nijak dramatick\u00fd a z\u00e1rove\u0148 chci b\u00fdt dob\u0159e zaji\u0161t\u011bn proti opa\u010dn\u00e9mu nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9mu pohybu. Vych\u00e1z\u00edm proto z v\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00e9 varianty ITM Long Put + Long akcie<\/strong>, kdy\u017e situace podle t\u00e9to p\u0159edstavy je vyobrazena na obr\u00e1zku na Close v\u00a0den p\u0159ed vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm Earnings titulu CAT, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b dne 24.4.2017<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0 K\u00a0po\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdm 100 x Long akci\u00edm<\/strong> za cenu 96,81 USD za celkov\u00fd n\u00e1klad -9.681 USD jsem nakoupil ITM Long Put na strike 98<\/strong> za cenu -224 USD a nav\u00edc jsem vypsal OTM Short Call na strike 102<\/strong> za +10 USD. Celkem byly m\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na tuto kombinace ve v\u00fd\u0161i -9.895 USD. Abych mohl na cel\u00e9 strategii profitovat, mus\u00ed cena akci\u00ed pokr\u00fdt n\u00e1klady na tuto pozici a mus\u00ed tak vystoupat nejm\u00e9n\u011b na 98.95 USD. Break Even bod pozice je tak ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e u prost\u00e9 kombinace Akcie + ITM Long Put (99.05 USD) pr\u00e1v\u011b o p\u0159ijat\u00e9 pr\u00e9mium z\u00a0v\u00fdpisu Short Call 102 opce. Maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta z\u00a0obchodu je p\u0159i poklesu podkladu, kdy proveden\u00edm Exercise zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00ed opce budu v\u017edy schopen prodat sv\u00e9 akcie za cenu strike t\u00e9to opce (98) a na sv\u016fj \u00fa\u010det tak v\u017edy dod\u00e1m +9.800 USD. Proto\u017ee jsou m\u00e9 n\u00e1klady -9.895 USD, tak v\u00fd\u0161e maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty<\/strong> je ve v\u00fd\u0161i +9.800 USD \u2013 9.895 USD = -95 USD<\/strong>. V\u00edce ztratit nemohu. Pokud se bude cena podkladu vyv\u00edjet podle p\u0159edpokladu a bude stoupat, budu m\u00edt sv\u016fj profit<\/strong> z\u00a0takov\u00e9ho uptrendu omezen strikem Short Call 102 opce<\/strong>. Prora\u017een\u00ed tohoto strike na cen\u011b 102 zp\u016fsob\u00ed, \u017ee bude m\u00e1 Short Call p\u0159i\u0159azena a budou mi na m\u016fj \u00fa\u010det dod\u00e1ny 100 x Short akcie za cenu strike 102 USD, kter\u00e9 vykompenzuj\u00ed m\u00e9, ji\u017e dr\u017een\u00e9 Long akcie. Z\u00a0t\u00e9to transakce budu m\u00edt tr\u017ebu +10.200 USD, p\u0159i n\u00e1kladech na pozici ve v\u00fd\u0161i -9.895 USD tak bude m\u016fj maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed profit<\/strong> ve v\u00fd\u0161i +305 USD<\/strong>. P\u0159i maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 ztr\u00e1t\u011b -95 USD a maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm mo\u017en\u00e9m profitu ve v\u00fd\u0161i +305 USD tak mohu hovo\u0159it o strategii s\u00a0pom\u011brem risk\/reward 1:3<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Collar s\u00a0ITM Long Call<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Opa\u010dn\u00e1 spekulace ve stejn\u00fdch intenc\u00edch jako v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee prob\u00edhat tak, \u017ee pokud budu m\u00edt p\u0159edstavu, \u017ee cena podkladu bude po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f jen klesat, mohu obohatit kombinaci Short akcie + ITM Long Call<\/strong> v\u00fdpisem OTM Short Put opce<\/strong>. K\u00a0zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00ed ITM Long Call opci, kter\u00e1 definuje hodnotu maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty z\u00a0obchodu, tak mohu p\u0159idat prvek, kter\u00fd tuto maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017enou ztr\u00e1tu d\u00e1le sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, vylep\u0161\u00ed Break Even cel\u00e9 pozice v\u00a0m\u016fj prosp\u011bch, aby ale stanovila tak\u00e9 maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017enou hodnotu profitu omezenou pr\u00e1v\u011b strike vypsan\u00e9 opce, to v\u0161e za p\u0159ijateln\u00e9ho pom\u011bru risk\/reward. Op\u011bt demonstruji na p\u0159ilo\u017een\u00e9m obr\u00e1zku na titulu CAT na Close datech ze dne p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho Earnings dne 24.4.2017<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Stejn\u011b jako u kombinace ITM Long Call + Short akcie prod\u00e1v\u00e1m 100 x Short akci\u00ed CAT<\/strong> za cenu 96.81 USD a z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1m na sv\u016fj \u00fa\u010det +9.681 USD a sou\u010dasn\u011b po\u0159izuj\u00ed ITM Long Call 96<\/strong> za cenu -196 USD. K\u00a0tomuto vypisuji OTM Short Put na strike 92<\/strong> za cenu +18 USD. Celkov\u011b tak m\u00e1m tr\u017ebu za tyto \u00fakony ve v\u00fd\u0161i +9.503 USD. Tato \u010d\u00e1stka definuje m\u016fj Break Even Bod pozice. Pokud cena bude podle p\u0159edpoklad\u016f klesat, tak od hodnoty 95.03 USD ji\u017e mohu pom\u00fd\u0161let na profit. Tento je omezen strike m\u00e9 vypsan\u00e9 Short Put 92 opce. Jeho prora\u017een\u00edm zp\u016fsob\u00ed p\u0159i\u0159azen\u00ed t\u00e9to Short Put 92 opce a na m\u016fj \u00fa\u010det budou dod\u00e1ny 100 x Long akcie za cenu 92 USD\/kus, kdy\u017e na tuto transakci vynalo\u017e\u00edm -9.200 USD. Dodan\u00e9 Long akcie vykompenzuj\u00ed m\u00e9 Short akcie a z\u016fstanou pouze pen\u00edze z\u00a0t\u00e9to transakce. P\u0159i celkov\u00e9 tr\u017eb\u011b ve v\u00fd\u0161i +9.503 USD tak bude m\u016fj maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd profit<\/strong> ve v\u00fd\u0161i +9.503 – 9.200 USD = +303 USD<\/strong>. Pokud se nenapln\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s\u00a0poklesem ceny po Earnings a cena za\u010dne stoupat, proveden\u00edm exercise m\u00e9 ITM Long Call 96 p\u0159ivol\u00e1m na sv\u016fj \u00fa\u010det 100 x Long akci\u00ed za cenu strike 96 a utrat\u00edm -9.600 USD. Op\u011bt budou p\u0159ivolan\u00e9 akcie kompenzov\u00e1ny m\u00fdmi dr\u017een\u00fdmi Short akciemi a z\u016fstanou pouze pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed hodnotu maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 pak je +9.503 USD (tr\u017eba) – 9.600 USD (exercise) = -97 USD<\/strong>. Porovn\u00e1n\u00edm maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty (-97 USD) a maxim\u00e1ln\u00edho mo\u017en\u00e9ho profitu (+303 USD) pak mohu op\u011bt konstatovat, \u017ee pom\u011br risk\/reward je 1:3<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Backtest<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u00a0 Backtestov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ech v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdch strategi\u00ed jsem op\u011bt prov\u00e1d\u011bl na posledn\u00edch dvaceti vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f a vyu\u017eil jsem k\u00a0tomu op\u011bt data t\u0159\u00ed modelov\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00fdmi jsou op\u011bt CAT (Caterpillar Inc), <\/strong>jako z\u00e1stupce typick\u00e9 a v\u00a0r\u00e1mci rozumn\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 firmy, kter\u00e1 um\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00e9st p\u011bkn\u00e9 pohyby, aby se nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech nepohnula t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u016fbec. Dal\u0161\u00ed spole\u010dnost\u00ed je IBM (Intl Bussines Machines Com),<\/strong> jako zaveden\u00e1 spole\u010dnost produkuj\u00edc\u00ed software a hardware, kter\u00e1 v\u0161ak neust\u00e1le nad r\u00e1mec o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 dvacetin\u00e1sobn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledkov\u00e9 historii spolehliv\u011b selh\u00e1vala a t\u0159et\u00ed testovanou spole\u010dnost\u00ed je NFLX (Netflix Com), <\/strong>kter\u00e1 um\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00e9st t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161e, co si lze p\u0159edstavit, obrovsk\u00e9 pohyby v\u00a0nevyzpytateln\u00fdch sm\u011brech a v\u00a0naprost\u00e9m nesouladu s\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm investor\u016f. V\u0161echny backtesty jsou prov\u00e1d\u011bny na opc\u00edch s\u00a0t\u00fddenn\u00ed expirac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Abych op\u011bt v\u00fdsledky backtest\u016f nebyly zbyte\u010dn\u011b nep\u0159ehledn\u00e9, omez\u00edm se na prezentaci grafick\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f<\/strong> t\u011bchto historick\u00fdch anal\u00fdz, kter\u00e9 jsou v\u00fdmluvn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla. Pro dal\u0161\u00ed zjednodu\u0161en\u00ed se omez\u00edm pouze na vizualizaci v\u00fdsledk\u016f p\u0159i expirac\u00ed opc\u00ed<\/strong>, a to z\u00a0jednoduch\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f. Proto\u017ee v\u0161echny pozice m\u00e1me zaji\u0161t\u011bny proti necht\u011bn\u00e9mu pohybu Long opcemi, tak tyto opce p\u0159ed svou expirac\u00ed maj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjakou hodnotu obsahuj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u00e9mium, proto by byly v\u00fdsledky ze dne vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Earnings zkresluj\u00edc\u00ed. Pokud z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed tyto opce ITM p\u0159i expiraci, dojde k automatick\u00e9 Exercise t\u011bchto Long opc\u00ed a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed tak funguje automaticky a nemus\u00edm se o n\u011bj v\u016fbec starat. Druh\u00fdm d\u016fvodem je zanechat p\u016fsoben\u00ed trendu ceny podkladu po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Earnings, aby se rozvinul v\u00a0pln\u00e9 sv\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161i (ne v\u017edy tomu tak ale je). V\u00a0neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b je to tak\u00e9 z\u00a0d\u016fvodu, \u017ee kombinace Collar obsahuj\u00edc\u00ed Short opce by p\u0159i jejich likvidaci v\u00a0den po Earnings vy\u017eadovala d\u00edky pr\u00e9miu obsa\u017een\u00e9mu tak\u00e9 v\u00a0cen\u011b Short opc\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady, kde\u017eto u samotn\u00e9 expirace p\u016fsob\u00ed tyto Short opce jako gener\u00e1tor likvida\u010dn\u00ed ceny pouze za \u010distou hodnotu strike a nic jin\u00e9ho, nemus\u00edme pak dopl\u00e1cet k\u00a0t\u00e9to likvida\u010dn\u00ed cen\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady.<\/span><\/p>\n

CAT (Caterpillar Inc)<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed Earnings v\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9m p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9m trendu nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed excelentn\u00ed v\u00fdkony. Z\u0159eteln\u011b je vid\u011bt, \u017ee v\u0161echny strategie mechanicky zalo\u017een\u00e9 na Long akci\u00edch a ochran\u011b Long Put opcemi jsou ve sv\u00e9m sou\u010dtu profitabiln\u00ed. Tento sou\u010det nen\u00ed ale v\u00fdrazn\u00fd a p\u0159i dvacetin\u00e1sobn\u00e9m obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na uptrend by tak p\u0159ineslo necel\u00fdch tis\u00edc dolar\u016f. Obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na opa\u010dn\u00fd sm\u011br, tedy \u017ee akcie se budou pohybovat sm\u011brem dol\u016f, by p\u0159ineslo p\u0159i stejn\u00e9m po\u010dtu obchod\u016f jistou ztr\u00e1tu, kter\u00e1 by ale tak\u00e9 nebyla celkov\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e je tis\u00edc dolar\u016f. U\u010debnicov\u011b je pak vid\u011bt, \u017ee Collar s\u00a0Long akciemi<\/strong> (\u010derven\u00e1 k\u0159ivka) by vyd\u011blal nejm\u00e9n\u011b<\/strong> a tak\u00e9 Collar se Short akciemi<\/strong> (zelen\u00e1 k\u0159ivka) by naopak nejm\u00e9n\u011b prod\u011blal<\/strong>. Omezen\u00e1 mo\u017enost profitu za omezen\u00e9 mo\u017enosti ztr\u00e1ty tak n\u00e1zorn\u011b zaji\u0161\u0165uje, \u017ee pokud jsou mo\u017enosti profitu vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u2013 Short opce z\u00a0Collaru tento vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed profit omezuje a naopak, pokud hroz\u00ed ztr\u00e1ta, tak je tato ze v\u0161ech t\u0159\u00ed rozeb\u00edran\u00fdch strategi\u00ed nejmen\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee strategie Collar zabezpe\u010duje nejmen\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enou maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu ze v\u0161ech analyzovan\u00fdch kombinac\u00ed. Ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0v\u00fdsledky s\u00a0p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f tak mohu konstatovat, \u017ee po\u0159izov\u00e1n\u00ed jak\u00e9koliv analyzovan\u00e9 kombinace v\u00a0p\u0159edve\u010der Earnings, a\u0165 je to kombinace zalo\u017een\u00e1 na Long opc\u00edch, Short opc\u00edch nebo opc\u00edch a akci\u00edch s\u00a0omezenou mo\u017enost\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 pozoruhodn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky. Bu\u010f prod\u011bl\u00e1m m\u00e1lo nebo nevyd\u011bl\u00e1m moc a nakonec se ani nemus\u00edm p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zam\u00fd\u0161let nad mo\u017en\u00fdm cenov\u00fdm pohybem po Earnings, a\u0165 ji\u017e budu obchodovat oba sm\u011bry najednou nebo si vyberu jeden z\u00a0p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdch pohyb\u016f, v\u00fdsledek bude nevaln\u00fd. CAT jsem si vybral jako z\u00e1stupce typick\u00e9 americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti se \u201ezdrav\u00fdmi reakcemi\u201c na vyhla\u0161ovan\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky, nejsou patrn\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 pohyby v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1dech des\u00edtek procent<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 IBM (Intl Bussines Machines Com)<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 U\u017e i Warren Buffett pochopil, \u017ee IBM nen\u00ed to \u201eprav\u00e9 o\u0159echov\u00e9\u201c a za\u010dal se jej\u00edch akci\u00ed zbavovat. Pokud ze dvaceti vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f bude \u0161estn\u00e1ct p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f znamenat zklam\u00e1n\u00ed a v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pokles ceny akci\u00ed po Earnings, nem\u016f\u017ee vypadat grafick\u00e9 zn\u00e1zorn\u011bn\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f backtestu jinak ne\u017e na obr\u00e1zku. Podot\u00fdk\u00e1m, \u017ee ve zbyl\u00fdch \u010dty\u0159ech \u201eoptimistick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech\u201c nedo\u0161lo k\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu uptrendu ceny. Mechanick\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed analyzovan\u00fdch kombinac\u00ed zalo\u017een\u00e9 na p\u0159edstav\u011b, \u017ee cena p\u016fjde po v\u00fdsledc\u00edch dol\u016f bylo jednozna\u010dnou s\u00e1zkou na dobr\u00fd profit. V\u0161echny kombinace zalo\u017een\u00e9 na Short akci\u00edch<\/strong> by ve sv\u00e9m sou\u010dtu p\u0159inesly zisk<\/strong>. Kombinace Akcie + Long opce jsou pak profitabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Collar ve stejn\u00e9m sm\u011bru obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed, proto\u017ee t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z\u00a0neomezen\u00e9 mo\u017enosti profitu, naopak Short opce z\u00a0Collaru takov\u00fd maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed potenci\u00e1l omezuje. V\u00fdsledek by pak byl pro Collar o necel\u00fd tis\u00edc dolar\u016f slab\u0161\u00ed. Je pak pochopiteln\u00e9, \u017ee mechanick\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na uptrend<\/strong> po Earnings by byl zaru\u010den\u00fd propad\u00e1k<\/strong>. Omezen\u00e1 mo\u017enost ztr\u00e1ty vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0podstaty testovan\u00fdch strategi\u00ed pak zp\u016fsobuje sva\u017eit\u00e9, ale plynul\u00e9 pr\u016fb\u011bhy v\u0161ech k\u0159ivek zn\u00e1zor\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na uptrend, kter\u00e9 jsou zp\u016fsobeny systematick\u00fdm p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00edm maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty s\u00a0po\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch kombinac\u00ed. Celkov\u011b nejmen\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu v\u00a0sou\u010dtu (ale i v\u00a0samotn\u00e9m pr\u016fb\u011bhu anal\u00fdzy) si pak op\u011bt p\u0159ipisuje kombinace Collar, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 ze sv\u00e9 podstaty \u00farove\u0148 t\u00e9to ztr\u00e1ty nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed (\u010derven\u00e1 k\u0159ivka). Pokud IBM zaznamenalo sporadick\u00e9 dobr\u00e9 Earnings, nebyly kladn\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 pohyby natolik v\u00fdrazn\u00e9, aby vyhladily historick\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty. V\u00a0porovn\u00e1n\u00ed se strategiemi z\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee mechanick\u00e1 s\u00e1zka na downtrend jasn\u011b vyd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00edce ne\u017e tam analyzovan\u00e9 strategie a naopak obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dist\u011b na uptrend prod\u011bl\u00e1 v\u00edce ne\u017e takov\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strategie. Toto v\u0161ak mohu zjistit<\/strong> a\u017e nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e se mohu pod\u00edvat \u201edo zp\u011btn\u00e9ho zrc\u00e1tka\u201c pomoc\u00ed historick\u00fdch dat<\/strong>. O budouc\u00edm v\u00fdvoji to ne\u0159\u00edk\u00e1 v\u016fbec nic. Nepodce\u0148uji v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b management spole\u010dnosti, \u017ee je mu takov\u00fd historick\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh zcela jedno a \u017ee pro zvrat takto nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9ho trendu nic ned\u011bl\u00e1. Mohu se domn\u00edvat, \u017ee p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed Earnings bude opa\u010dn\u00e1, ale kdo v\u00ed\u2026. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

NFLX (Netflix Com)<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

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\u00a0 Obr\u00e1zek s\u00a0v\u00fdsledky NFLX je jasnou ilustrac\u00ed, jak by m\u011blo vypadat obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0omezenou maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017enou ztr\u00e1tou<\/strong> a neomezen\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem profitu<\/strong>. Tot\u00e1ln\u011b nevyzpytateln\u00e1 spole\u010dnost p\u0159edvedla o\u010dek\u00e1van\u011b nejlep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdkony na strategi\u00edch Long Akcie + Long Put<\/strong>. Tyto v\u00fdkony ale nasb\u00edrala zejm\u00e9na p\u0159ed splitem sv\u00fdch akci\u00ed, pot\u00e9 ji\u017e byly v\u00fdsledky v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b nevaln\u00e9. Toto nen\u00ed na v\u00fdsledc\u00edch backtestu tak zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, jako skute\u010dnost, \u017ee jsem sice mohl podobn\u011b vysok\u00e9 profity nasb\u00edrat n\u011bkter\u00fdmi kombinacemi z p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f, ale \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00a0t\u011bchto p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch kombinac\u00ed n\u00e1m nemohla takto komplexn\u011b zajistit omezenou mo\u017enost p\u0159ijet\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, co\u017e se projevuje na pr\u016fb\u011bhu zbyl\u00fdch k\u0159ivek. Technick\u00fd analytik by tak na t\u011bchto zbyl\u00fdch k\u0159ivk\u00e1ch mohl pozorovat jak\u00fdsi support<\/strong> vytvo\u0159en\u00fd pr\u00e1v\u011b z\u00a0titulu omezen\u00e9 mo\u017enosti ztr\u00e1ty zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edmi Long opcemi<\/strong>. M\u011bl bych tedy u t\u00e9to spole\u010dnosti v\u00a0budoucnosti nasadit pr\u00e1v\u011b takov\u00e9 nejv\u00fdkonn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strategie? Nev\u00edm, co fungovalo v\u00a0minulosti se nemus\u00ed ji\u017e nikdy opakovat. Patrn\u011b by to byla dobr\u00e1 volba, proto\u017ee p\u0159i zna\u010dn\u00e9m potenci\u00e1lu profitu zaru\u010duje omezenou mo\u017enost ztr\u00e1ty, ale bude tomu opravdu tak, budou i nad\u00e1le v\u00fdsledky tak revolu\u010dn\u00ed jako v\u00a0minulosti?<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0 Co si vlastn\u011b mohu ze s\u00e9rie t\u0159\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f o Earnings a op\u010dn\u00edch kombinac\u00edch vlastn\u011b odn\u00e9st? Je pokus o sou\u010dasn\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na oba mo\u017en\u00e9 pohyby po Earnings lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e se zam\u011b\u0159it na mechanick\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9ho sm\u011bru? Na takovou ot\u00e1zku nen\u00ed jednozna\u010dn\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f, proto\u017ee odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b samotnou nejednozna\u010dnost obchodn\u00ed reality. Nejsem schopen sm\u011br v\u00fdvoje ceny po Earnings predikovat, j\u00e1 to alespo\u0148 neum\u00edm a dokonce jsem takov\u00e9 pokusy o jeho nalezen\u00ed vzdal. Mo\u017en\u00e1 to n\u011bkdo um\u00ed a m\u00e1 tak velmi zna\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1skok p\u0159ed ostatn\u00edmi, ale moc tomu nev\u011b\u0159\u00edm. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 z p\u0159edveden\u00fdch kombinac\u00ed se hod\u00ed pro n\u011bjakou tr\u017en\u00ed situaci, kter\u00e1 by mohla eventu\u00e1ln\u011b nastat, j\u00e1 ale nev\u00edm, jak\u00e1 nakonec bude, tak\u017ee exaktn\u011b p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let co pou\u017e\u00edt a co odm\u00edtnout je velmi o\u0161idn\u00e9. Nab\u00edz\u00ed se pak ot\u00e1zka, pro\u010d jsem o tom cel\u00e9m vlastn\u011b psal, pro\u010d jsem to vysv\u011btloval a dokonce analyzoval na historick\u00fdch datech. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b proto, abych uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee to opravdu nen\u00ed tak jednoduch\u00e9, jak to na prvn\u00ed pohled vypad\u00e1 a \u017ee a\u0165 si v\u00a0p\u0159edve\u010der Earnings po\u0159\u00edd\u00edm cokoliv, tak se nemohu v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b spolehnout, \u017ee to bude zaru\u010den\u011b fungovat. To ale plat\u00ed obecn\u011b pro jakoukoliv formu tradingu, jist\u00e9ho nen\u00ed nikdy nic. Op\u010dn\u00edch obchodn\u00edk\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se sna\u017e\u00ed zobchodovat tak v\u00fdznamnou fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed ud\u00e1lost, jako je vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Earnings, je velmi mnoho. Ka\u017ed\u00fd z\u00a0nich si patrn\u011b vypracoval sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed syst\u00e9m, sv\u00e1 vlastn\u00ed pravidla, jak s\u00a0takovou skute\u010dnost\u00ed, jako je Earnings nalo\u017eit. Mo\u017en\u00e1 je podobn\u00e1 n\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00a0uveden\u00fdch kombinac\u00ed opc\u00ed nebo kombinac\u00ed opc\u00ed a akci\u00ed. Obchodovat je ale striktn\u011b mechanicky a bez komplexn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho p\u0159\u00edstupu ale nebude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 profitabiln\u00ed, samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pokud nebude sou\u010d\u00e1sti takov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstupu notn\u00e1 d\u00e1vka \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed, dobr\u00e1 shoda n\u00e1hod nebo skv\u011bl\u00e1 volba obchodovan\u00e9ho podkladu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0Pokus\u00edm se v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku uk\u00e1zat, jak zapojit do obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed Earnings v\u0161echny doposud poznan\u00e9 a mo\u017en\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje, kter\u00e9 jsou mi jako op\u010dn\u00edmu obchodn\u00edkovi nab\u00edzeny, sou\u010dasn\u011b s\u00a0vyu\u017eit\u00edm v\u0161ech mo\u017en\u00fdch moment\u016f, kter\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed ud\u00e1losti doprov\u00e1z\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 \u00a0Vypad\u00e1 to, jako bych se vzdaloval p\u016fvodn\u00ed my\u0161lence o obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed volatility, jako element\u00e1rn\u00edmu prvku a z\u00e1kladn\u00edho stavebn\u00edho kamene op\u010dn\u00edch obchod\u016f a vytv\u00e1\u0159el ve sv\u00fdch dvou p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch jak\u00e9si komplikovan\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy na historick\u00fdch datech, kter\u00e9 nav\u00edc ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee takov\u00e9 testovan\u00e9 obchodovan\u00e9 strategie n\u011bjak pou\u017eiteln\u011b nefunguj\u00ed. Pokud tvrd\u00edm \u201eA\u201c a existuje Continue Reading<\/i><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":705,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[35],"tags":[5,36],"class_list":["post-694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-volatilita","tag-collar","tag-earnings"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/E4.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8zd8A-bc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":733,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=733","url_meta":{"origin":694,"position":0},"title":"Earnings – V. (prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st)","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"8.9.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Pozor, bude i video!!!...a bude to tak\u00e9 hodn\u011b o Facebooku. Ud\u011blal jsem to tak schv\u00e1ln\u011b, proto\u017ee po t\u0159ech nudn\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch poset\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsly, popisy strategi\u00ed a obr\u00e1zky s\u00a0grafy, ze kter\u00fdch nakonec vyplynulo, \u017ee to je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 k\u00a0ni\u010demu, by se mohla vytvo\u0159it ur\u010dit\u00e1 frustrace z\u00a0pokusu zobchodovat fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed ud\u00e1lost, jako je vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E5-uvodni-obraz.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E5-uvodni-obraz.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E5-uvodni-obraz.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":783,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=783","url_meta":{"origin":694,"position":1},"title":"Earnings – VI.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"17.9.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Zlat\u00e1 fyzika. Pokud pojedu z\u00a0Prahy do Brna a v\u00edm, \u017ee je to 200 km, tak pokud pojedu stovkou, budu tam za dv\u011b hodiny. K\u00a0tomu sta\u010d\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu fyzikovi jednoduch\u00fd vzorec o vztahu rychlosti a vzd\u00e1lenosti mezi dv\u011bma pevn\u00fdmi body trasy. Pokud bych si, jako fyzik, takovou cestovatelskou ud\u00e1lost cht\u011bl modelovat,\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E-6.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E-6.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/E-6.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":614,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=614","url_meta":{"origin":694,"position":2},"title":"Earnings – I.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"17.7.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f firem je pro op\u010dn\u00edho obchodn\u00edka velk\u00e1 v\u00fdzva. Je to pastva pro obchodn\u00edky s\u00a0volatilitou a je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee je velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 b\u00fdt obchodn\u011b konzistentn\u011b profitabiln\u00ed, proto\u017ee je to velmi n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je doprov\u00e1zeno obrovskou m\u00edrou nejistoty. Kde je velk\u00e1 nejistota a nap\u011bt\u00ed, tam je tak\u00e9\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/E-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/E-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/E-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":595,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=595","url_meta":{"origin":694,"position":3},"title":"Volatilita a op\u010dn\u00ed obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"12.7.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed opc\u00ed je p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed volatility. V po\u010d\u00e1tc\u00edch sv\u00e9 \u201eobchodn\u00ed kari\u00e9ry\u201c jsem si to v\u016fbec neuv\u011bdomoval. P\u0159i pohledu do zp\u011btn\u00e9ho zrc\u00e1tka m\u00e9ho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed opc\u00ed bych tak mohl pozorovat, p\u0159i n\u011bjak\u00e9m historicky chronologick\u00e9m zobecn\u011bn\u00ed, jednotliv\u00e9 f\u00e1ze m\u00e9ho tradersk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje, kter\u00e9 byly charakterizov\u00e1ny t\u00edm, \u010demu jsem p\u0159ikl\u00e1dal v\u00a0tu danou dobu\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/Baloon.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/Baloon.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/Baloon.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1010,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=1010","url_meta":{"origin":694,"position":4},"title":"VIX technologie + Akcie","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"8.11.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0minul\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku VIX Index\u00a0jsem otev\u0159el z\u00e1kladn\u00ed t\u00e9ma t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se deriv\u00e1t\u016f volatility t\u00edm, \u017ee jsem se sna\u017eil popsat konstrukci samotn\u00e9ho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu VIX Indexu, ze kter\u00e9 vyplynuly z\u00e1kladn\u00ed principy jeho fungov\u00e1n\u00ed a vlivy, kter\u00e9 zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed jeho pohyb. Z\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku vyplynulo, \u017ee podstatou je \u201em\u011b\u0159en\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed\u201c na OTM opc\u00edch podkladov\u00e9ho aktiva SPX s\u00a0horizontem\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita a jej\u00ed Deriv\u00e1ty\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita a jej\u00ed Deriv\u00e1ty","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=37"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/main-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/main-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/main-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/main-1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":671,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=671","url_meta":{"origin":694,"position":5},"title":"Earnings – III.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"13.8.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0 \u201ePokud ti sed\u00ed zkou\u0161en\u00e1 bota \u2013 kup si i tu druhou\u201c, by mohlo b\u00fdt \u00favodn\u00ed motto k\u00a0pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00edho \u010dl\u00e1nku o vyhodnocen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f k\u00a0zobchodov\u00e1n\u00ed Earnings pomoc\u00ed ATM Long Straddle a jeho mo\u017en\u00fdch vylep\u0161en\u00ed.\u00a0Proto\u017ee jsem p\u0159irovnal po\u0159izov\u00e1n\u00ed Long Straddle v\u00a0p\u0159edve\u010der Earnings k\u00a0n\u00e1kupu posledn\u00edho modelu ly\u017e\u00ed v\u00a0b\u0159eznu ve Svat\u00e9m Mo\u0159ici, nutn\u011b vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eVolatilita\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Volatilita","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=35"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/E3.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/E3.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/E3.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=694"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2879,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694\/revisions\/2879"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}