{"id":6668,"date":"2023-10-14T10:35:16","date_gmt":"2023-10-14T08:35:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6668"},"modified":"2024-08-18T17:01:05","modified_gmt":"2024-08-18T15:01:05","slug":"dluhopisy-xii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6668","title":{"rendered":"Dluhopisy \u2013 XII."},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0hrnci dluhopisov\u00fdch trh\u016f to za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 p\u011bkn\u011b bublat. Pry\u010d jsou doby nev\u00fdznamn\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f \u010di dokonce z\u00e1porn\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, investo\u0159i za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0159it zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti a po dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017een\u00fd segment cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f s\u00a0pevn\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 nab\u00edrat na zaslou\u017een\u00e9 pozornosti. N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159\u00e1dky dal\u0161\u00edho d\u00edlu dluhopisov\u00e9ho seri\u00e1lu pak budou o projasn\u011bn\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f spojen\u00fdch s\u00a0po\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm dluhov\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f a snad pom\u016f\u017eou vy\u0159e\u0161it alespo\u0148 n\u011bkter\u00e1 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed dilemata, se kter\u00fdmi m\u016f\u017ee dluhopisov\u00fd investor p\u0159i vstupu na toto velkolep\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed tr\u017ei\u0161t\u011b z\u00e1pasit.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Nepochybuji, \u017ee investor do dluhov\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f m\u00e1 sv\u016fj z\u00e1kladn\u00ed n\u00e1hled na v\u00fdvoj \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, kter\u00fd vych\u00e1z\u00ed z alespo\u0148 zevrubn\u00e9ho pozn\u00e1n\u00ed aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho tvaru v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky dluhopis\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou benchmarkem pro trh, na kter\u00e9m chce svou investici um\u00edstit. To, jestli jsou aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdnosy vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed u dluhopis\u016f s krat\u0161\u00ed splatnost\u00ed ne\u017e u dluhopis\u016f se vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed splatnost\u00ed (m\u00e9n\u011b \u010dast\u00fd jev viz \u010dl\u00e1nek<\/span> Dluhopisy \u2013 X.<\/a><\/span><\/strong>) nebo b\u011b\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed tvar v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky, kde jsou v\u00fdnosy vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ve vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00edch splatnostech ne\u017e ve splatnostech krat\u0161\u00edch (stoupaj\u00edc\u00ed nebo ploch\u00fd tvar k\u0159ivky), by m\u011blo b\u00fdt z\u00e1kladn\u00ed v\u00fdbavou pro rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, jak budu svou investici do dluhopis\u016f koncipovat. Pozn\u00e1n\u00ed tvaru v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky a n\u00e1hled na v\u00fdvoj \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb by pak m\u011bl b\u00fdt z\u00e1kladn\u00edm p\u0159edpokladem, jak k\u00a0takov\u00e9 investici p\u0159istoupit a mohl by se prom\u00edtnout do prvn\u00edho \u201erozhodovac\u00edho probl\u00e9mu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Najednou nebo nadvakr\u00e1t…?<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Pohledem na dluhopisov\u00fd trh s\u00a0nab\u00eddkou nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch splatnost\u00ed, v\u00fdnos\u016f a kup\u00f3n\u016f mohu za\u010d\u00edt p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let, jak se zam\u00fd\u0161len\u00e1 investice bude vyv\u00edjet v\u00a0budoucnosti, zejm\u00e9na nap\u0159\u00edklad s\u00a0ohledem na charakter a stav aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed tvar v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky benchmarkov\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f. M\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed dilema by pak mohlo b\u00fdt nap\u0159\u00edklad takov\u00fd tvar: \u201eM\u00e1m investovat do ro\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu s\u00a0v\u00fdnosem 5% p.a. nebo se mi vyplat\u00ed investovat do dluhopisu s\u00a0p\u016flro\u010dn\u00ed splatnost\u00ed s\u00a0v\u00fdnosem 4.8% a pot\u00e9 investovat do dal\u0161\u00edho p\u016flro\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu?<\/em>\u201c Tato z\u00e1kladn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed \u00favaha vych\u00e1z\u00ed z p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee nezn\u00e1m v\u00fdvoj v\u00fdnos\u016f do budoucnosti a mohu tak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee v\u00fdnosy porostou a budu moci p\u0159i investici do krat\u0161\u00edho dluhopisu tuto reinvestovat za vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy po jeho splatnosti nebo naopak p\u0159ijmu riziko, \u017ee p\u0159i poklesu v\u00fdnos\u016f se mi ji\u017e nepoda\u0159\u00ed za aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdnosy v budoucnosti mou investici zhodnotit, toto v\u0161e p\u0159i s\u00e1zce na \u201edroben\u00ed investice\u201c do krat\u0161\u00edch \u010dasov\u00fdch interval\u016f. Mohu ale tak\u00e9 usoudit, \u017ee zafixovat si v\u00fdnos na del\u0161\u00ed dobu volbou dvojn\u00e1sobn\u011b dlouhou investic\u00ed za pevn\u011b stanoven\u00fd aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdnos je pro m\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed volbou, jsem toti\u017e p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee v\u00fdnosy ji\u017e d\u00e1le neporostou, a naopak mohou v horizontu do splatnosti dluhopisu naopak klesnout. Jak mohu tento proces kvantifikovat? Bude m\u011b zaj\u00edmat, jak\u00fd budouc\u00ed v\u00fdnos<\/strong> za p\u016fl roku<\/strong> bude pro m\u011b \u201eBreakEven\u201c<\/strong> pro kr\u00e1tkodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dluhopisovou investici za p\u016fl roku, aby zaru\u010doval v\u00fdnos vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00ed investice.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Pokud investuji do dluhopisu s\u00a0p\u016flro\u010dn\u00ed nejb\u011b\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed frekvenc\u00ed p\u0159ipisov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farok\u016f, tak mohu u investice do ro\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu<\/strong> s\u00a0v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem 5% p.a<\/strong> (yrok<\/sub><\/em><\/span>). konstatovat, \u017ee tento v\u00fdnos bude (viz postup v \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span> Dluhopisy \u2013 I.<\/a><\/strong><\/span>):<\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Mocnina \u201ena druhou\u201c pak reflektuje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee doba p\u0159ipisov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdnosu nastala v\u00a0dan\u00e9m obdob\u00ed dvakr\u00e1t, specifikoval jsem, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o dluhopis s\u00a0p\u016flro\u010dn\u00ed frekvenc\u00ed inkasa vyzna\u010den\u00e9ho kup\u00f3nu. Ve stejn\u00e9m duchu pak investice do p\u016flro\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu<\/strong> s\u00a0v\u00fdnosem 4.8% p.a.<\/strong>(y<\/em><\/span>p\u016flrok<\/em><\/span>)<\/sub> bude m\u00edt tento tvar:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Pokud budu cht\u00edt vyhodnotit, jak\u00fd v\u00fdnos mus\u00ed po uplynut\u00ed p\u016flro\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed splatnosti p\u016flro\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu b\u00fdt na trz\u00edch k\u00a0dispozici, abych z\u00edskal stejn\u00fd v\u00fdnos jako p\u0159i investici do ro\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu, mus\u00edm obohatit vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 p\u016flro\u010dn\u00ed zhodnocen\u00ed o hled\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdnosu, kter\u00fd mi bude reflektovat zhodnocen\u00ed investice v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm p\u016flroce na takov\u00e9 \u00farovni, abych dos\u00e1hl na zhodnocen\u00ed stejn\u00e9 jako p\u0159i investici do jednoro\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Hled\u00e1n\u00ed hodnoty v\u00fdnosu (z<\/em><\/span>) pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho za p\u016flroku k tomu, abych dos\u00e1hl zhodnocen\u00ed alespo\u0148 takov\u00e9ho, jako je p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 investice do jednoro\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu, je pak jen ot\u00e1zka jednoduch\u00e9 algebry:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Pokud je hodnota investice (Investice<\/em><\/span>) stejn\u00e1, je potom hledanou hodnotou pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu (z) tento kone\u010dn\u00fd upraven\u00fd tvar v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 rovnice:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b v m\u00e9m modelov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edkladu, v\u00fdnos p\u016flro\u010dn\u00ed investice s ro\u010dn\u00edm v\u00fdnosem 4.8% p.a. p\u0159edstavuje zhodnocen\u00ed 2.4% (yp\u016flrok<\/sub><\/em><\/span>). Ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos 5% p\u0159edstavuje p\u016flro\u010dn\u00ed zhodnocen\u00ed 2.5% (yrok<\/sub><\/em><\/span>), potom:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Zhodnocen\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho p\u016flroku<\/strong> (z<\/em><\/span>), tak mus\u00ed p\u0159edstavovat v\u00fdnos nejm\u00e9n\u011b 2.60009%<\/strong>, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje investici do druh\u00e9ho p\u016flro\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu s\u00a0vyzna\u010den\u00fdm ro\u010dn\u00edm zhodnocen\u00edm ve v\u00fd\u0161i nejm\u00e9n\u011b 5.20018% p.a.<\/strong> pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho k\u00a0tomu, abych dos\u00e1hl rozlo\u017een\u00edm investice do dvou pololet\u00ed na stejn\u00e9 zhodnocen\u00ed, jako v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b investice na jeden rok.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Pokud tedy nyn\u00ed pozoruji v\u00fdnosy jednotliv\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f podle jejich splatnosti, m\u011bl bych ve sv\u011btle v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee pro dosa\u017een\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdnosu z\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch p\u016flro\u010dn\u00edch investic pot\u0159ebuji, aby v\u00fdnosy p\u016flro\u010dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f p\u0159inesly vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos (5.20018% p.a.) ne\u017e nyn\u00ed (4.8% p.a.) a mohly tak p\u0159in\u00e9st stejn\u00e9 nebo vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed zhodnocen\u00ed, jako p\u0159edstavuje investice do ro\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu. Pokud bych byl vystaven takto strukturovan\u00e9mu dilema o investici do kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch nebo dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, m\u00e9 predikce \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb by se pak m\u011bly odv\u00edjet od v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti a Durace<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f v dob\u011b, kdy p\u00ed\u0161u tento \u010dl\u00e1nek, z\u00e1vratn\u011b rostou a s t\u00edmto r\u016fstem tak\u00e9 odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem roste po\u010det ot\u00e1zek, jak takov\u00fd r\u016fst zobchodovat. Odpov\u011b\u010f je celkem jednoduch\u00e1 \u2013 mnoha zp\u016fsoby :c). Stejn\u011b jako investor do akci\u00ed, stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed dluhopisov\u00fdm investorem \u00fakol vyhodnotit, do jak\u00fdch titul\u016f m\u00e1 aktu\u00e1ln\u011b investovat a co od takov\u00e9 investice o\u010dek\u00e1vat. Odpov\u011bdi na tyto ot\u00e1zky pak budou patrn\u011b le\u017eet na investorov\u011b rozpolo\u017een\u00ed, povaze a pohledu na podstatu proveden\u00e9 investice. Originalita ka\u017ed\u00e9ho obchodn\u00edka se patrn\u011b stejn\u011b origin\u00e1ln\u011b projev\u00ed tak\u00e9 v investi\u010dn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edstupu, bude tak podstatn\u00e9, jak\u00e9 prim\u00e1rn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed je s touto investic\u00ed spojeno a jak m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdb\u011br dluhov\u00e9ho investi\u010dn\u00edho n\u00e1stroje pomoci toto o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed splnit. Pokud se rozhoduji po\u0159\u00eddit dluhopis, mus\u00edm patrn\u011b prov\u00e9st n\u011bjak\u00fd vnit\u0159n\u00ed rozhodovac\u00ed proces, jak by m\u011blo toto po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed vypadat a kter\u00e9 dluhopisy mi pomohou tento rozhodovac\u00ed proces vy\u0159e\u0161it.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Chci dluhopisov\u00fd v\u00fdnos, kter\u00fd vyplyne z dr\u017een\u00ed dluhopisu do splatnosti bez ohledu na okolnosti, kter\u00e9 budou na trz\u00edch panovat nebo chci pojmout dluhopisovou investici jako spekulaci spojenou s pohybem ceny tohoto cenn\u00e9ho pap\u00edru? Zaj\u00edm\u00e1 m\u011b pravideln\u00e9 kup\u00f3nov\u00e9 cash flow nebo chci v\u0161echny nev\u00fdhody spojen\u00e9 s t\u00edmto p\u0159\u00edstupem nahradit investic\u00ed do bezkup\u00f3nov\u00e9ho dluhopisu? Chci b\u00fdt v investici velmi dlouhou dobu nebo je mi vlastn\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 reinvestov\u00e1n\u00ed do dluhopis\u016f s ultrakr\u00e1tkou dobou do splatnosti? Jistou porci odpov\u011bd\u00ed na tyto ot\u00e1zky lze nal\u00e9zt v \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span> Dluhopisy \u2013 VIII.<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, pokus\u00edm se nyn\u00ed tam popsan\u00e1 zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nyn\u00ed znovu formulovat do odpov\u011bd\u00ed na v\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky a vy\u0159e\u0161it tak dilemata, kter\u00e9 tyto ot\u00e1zky navozuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kup\u00f3nov\u00fd dluhopis<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 K n\u00e1kupu kup\u00f3nov\u00e9ho dluhopisu za ur\u010ditou cenu m\u011b m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st rozhodnut\u00ed vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0vyzna\u010den\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu do splatnosti (YTM)<\/strong>. Podstata jeho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu je pops\u00e1na v \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span> Dluhopisy \u2013 V.<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, kdy\u017e z\u00e1kladn\u00edm pozn\u00e1n\u00edm podstaty tohoto v\u00fdpo\u010dtu je zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee se na n\u011bj nemohu zcela spolehnout. P\u0159esto\u017ee by v\u00fdnos do splatnosti m\u011bl b\u00fdt jedn\u00edm ze z\u00e1kladn\u00edch rozhodovac\u00edch prvk\u016f, jeho podstata trp\u00ed zejm\u00e9na reinvesti\u010dn\u00edm rizikem.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Na obr\u00e1zku je p\u0159\u00edklad dluhopisu spole\u010dnosti <\/span>Metlife (MET)<\/span> (1)<\/span><\/strong> se splatnost\u00ed 15.12.1936 nesouc\u00ed kup\u00f3n ve v\u00fd\u0161i <\/span>6.4% p.a<\/span>. (2)<\/span><\/strong>, kter\u00fd je splatn\u00fd <\/span>pololetn\u011b<\/span> (3)<\/span><\/strong> a jeho CUSIP<\/strong> je 59156RAP3<\/span> (4)<\/strong><\/span>. Tento dluhopis mohu po\u0159\u00eddit za Ask cenu<\/span> 96,1540% z\u00a0Face Value<\/strong> (p\u0159i investici 1.000 USD vynalo\u017e\u00edm 961.540 USD)<\/span> (5)<\/strong><\/span> a po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed za tuto Ask cenu odpov\u00edd\u00e1 Yield To Maturity<\/strong> (d\u00e1le jen \u201eYTM\u201c) ve v\u00fd\u0161i <\/span>6.846% p.a.<\/span> (6)<\/span><\/strong>. Tento (nebo vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed) v\u00fdnos do splatnosti b\u011bhem t\u0159in\u00e1ct let jeho dr\u017een\u00ed obdr\u017e\u00edm ale pouze v jedin\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, a to za podm\u00ednky, \u017ee se mi poda\u0159\u00ed utr\u017een\u00e9 kup\u00f3ny reinvestovat ihned po jejich inkasu s \u00farokem ve v\u00fd\u0161i YTM, tedy alespo\u0148 za 6.846% p.a. Spln\u011bn\u00ed t\u00e9to podm\u00ednky je ale nejist\u00e9, proto\u017ee nemohu nijak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee se mi poda\u0159\u00ed takov\u00fd \u00fakol \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b realizovat, t\u0159in\u00e1ctilet\u00e9 obdob\u00ed je dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouh\u00e9 na to, abych mohl \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee na trz\u00edch budou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti takto stanoven\u00e9ho zhodnocen\u00ed. Mus\u00edm tedy zam\u011b\u0159it pozornost na takov\u00e9 parametry nakupovan\u00e9ho dluhopisu, kter\u00e9 nebudou z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na budouc\u00edm v\u00fdvoji \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a budou vhodn\u011b popisovat dluhopis bez tohoto z\u00e1kladn\u00edho reinvesti\u010dn\u00edho rizika spojen\u00e9ho s YTM.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Mohu tak nyn\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b pouze v\u011bd\u011bt, \u017ee dluhopis MET po\u0159\u00edd\u00edm za 961.54 USD a tento dluhopis mi p\u0159inese ka\u017ed\u00e9ho p\u016fl roku kup\u00f3n (6.4%\/2) ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3.2% z hodnoty Face Value. Rozlo\u017een\u00ed kup\u00f3nov\u00fdch plateb mohu ode\u010d\u00edst z bond screeneru m\u00e9ho brokera:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Dluhopis vyzna\u010den\u00fd kup\u00f3n<\/strong> vypl\u00e1c\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9ho 15.7.<\/strong> a 15.12.<\/strong> doby do splatnosti dluhopisu<\/span> (1)<\/strong><\/span>, posledn\u00ed spl\u00e1tka kup\u00f3nu je u maturity dluhopisu, tedy 15.12.2036 (2)<\/span><\/strong>, pracuji tedy s t\u0159in\u00e1ctilet\u00fdm kup\u00f3nov\u00fdm dluhopisem.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bez ohledu na YTM mohu nyn\u00ed z\u00a0\u00fadaj\u016f o tomto dluhopisu vy\u010d\u00edst, \u017ee tento bude pro m\u011b zdrojem p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z\u00a0kup\u00f3n\u016f a dluhopis kupuji za cenu ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e je Face Value. Proto\u017ee pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 kup\u00f3nov\u00e9 platby nejsou mal\u00e9, ale p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjem 32 USD ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u016flrok dr\u017een\u00ed dluhopisu a nav\u00edc jsem dluhopis koupil s\u00a0diskontem k\u00a0Face Value, mohu ve zjednodu\u0161en\u00ed konstatovat, \u017ee dluhopis se mi \u201esplat\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve\u201c, ne\u017e v\u00a0den jeho splatnosti, n\u00e1vratnost vynalo\u017een\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f tak teoreticky nastane d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e u Maturity Date. V\u00fdpo\u010det pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 doby, do kter\u00e9 mohu mluvit o splatnosti dluhopisu, je ur\u010den\u00edm tzv. \u201epr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 doby do splatnosti dluhopisu\u201c<\/strong> a mohu ji\u017e nyn\u00ed, bez ohledu na techniku v\u00fdpo\u010dtu odhadnout, \u017ee pokud bude m\u00edt dluhopis vysok\u00fd kup\u00f3n<\/strong>, bude tato pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed<\/strong> (dostanu sv\u00e9 vlo\u017een\u00e9 pen\u00edze zp\u011bt d\u0159\u00edve) ne\u017e by tak bylo u stejn\u00e9ho dluhopisu s podstatn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nem. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti dluhopisu je vypo\u010dtena jako sou\u010det v\u00e1hy ka\u017ed\u00e9 budouc\u00ed platby kup\u00f3nu a z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 spl\u00e1tky Face Value v jejich sou\u010dasn\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch. Pokud jsem se ve v\u00fdpo\u010dtu v \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span> Dluhopisy \u2013 V.<\/a><\/strong><\/span> sna\u017eil naj\u00edt hodnotu YTM, tedy hledat takovou \u00farokovou sazbu, kter\u00e1 diskontov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u0161ech budouc\u00edch cash flow z dluhopisu a jejich n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm sou\u010dtem vygeneruje aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cenu dluhopisu, potom, pokud jsou v\u0161echny tyto budouc\u00ed cash flow platby zv\u00e1\u017eeny podle jejich hodnoty a pom\u011b\u0159eny s aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnotou dluhopisu \u2013 tento v\u00fdpo\u010det vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b pr\u016fm\u011brnou dobu do splatnosti dluhopisu. V \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span> Dluhopisy \u2013 VIII.<\/a><\/strong><\/span> je tento postup v\u00fdpo\u010dtu pops\u00e1n a ozna\u010den za tzv. Macaulayovu Duraci<\/em>, jedn\u00e1 se tak o stejn\u00fd po\u010detn\u00ed postup, jenom bych mu nyn\u00ed dop\u0159\u00e1l v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozornosti. Macaulayova Durace a pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti dluhopisu je tedy stejn\u00e1 v\u011bc, pom\u011b\u0159uji sou\u010det budouc\u00edch diskontovan\u00fdch cash flow s aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cenou dluhopisu, z dan\u00e9ho pom\u011bru pak vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee krat\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brnou dobu do splatnosti (ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed Macaulayovu Duraci) bude m\u00edt dluhopis, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 (p\u0159i jinak stejn\u00fdch parametrech) vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed kup\u00f3n. K d\u016fkaz\u016fm t\u00e9to z\u00e1vislosti jsem pou\u017eil vlastn\u00ed excel, kter\u00fd je schopen simulovat tyto (a dal\u0161\u00ed pozd\u011bji v \u010dl\u00e1nku popisovan\u00e9) situace:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0 P\u0159i aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cen\u011b <\/span>961.54 USD<\/span> (1)<\/span><\/strong> m\u00e1 dluhopis se splatnosti<\/span> t\u0159in\u00e1ct let<\/span> (2)<\/span><\/strong> a kup\u00f3nem <\/span>6.4% p.a.<\/span> (3)<\/span><\/strong> vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fd v\u00fdnos do splatnosti<\/strong> (YTM) ve v\u00fd\u0161i <\/span>6.658% p.a.<\/span> (4)<\/span><\/strong> a <\/span>pr\u016fm\u011brnou dobu do splatnosti 9.18 let<\/span> (5)<\/span><\/strong>. V\u00fdpo\u010det z\u00edsk\u00e1m zad\u00e1n\u00edm \u00fadaj\u016f do modr\u00fdch bun\u011bk excelu\u00a0 a po stisknut\u00ed tla\u010d\u00edtka \u201eYield To Maturity\u201c se spust\u00ed makro, kter\u00e9 vytvo\u0159\u00ed „budoucnost dluhopisu“ a provede pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 K\u00a0po\u0159izovac\u00ed cen\u011b dluhopisu<\/strong> se p\u0159i\u010dte hodnota \u00faroku z\u00a0kup\u00f3nu za obdob\u00ed<\/strong>, po kter\u00e9 nejsem jeho vlastn\u00edkem<\/strong> (Accrued Interest) a komise<\/strong> m\u00e9ho brokera, tak\u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e1 po\u0159izovac\u00ed cena je nyn\u00ed <\/span>-977.30 USD<\/span> (1)<\/span><\/strong>. V\u00a0prvn\u00edm sloupci excelu<\/span> (2)<\/strong><\/span> mohu vid\u011bt, \u017ee nakoupen\u00fd dluhopis mi p\u0159iprav\u00ed celkem 27 budouc\u00edch pen\u011b\u017en\u00edch tok\u016f z\u00a0kup\u00f3nov\u00fdch plateb po 32.00 USD a kone\u010dn\u00e9 spl\u00e1tky Face Value ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1.000 USD. Mohu pak ve sloupci YTMDiskont pozorovat vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 diskontovan\u00e9 hodnoty jednotliv\u00fdch budouc\u00edch plateb podle vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu do splatnosti, nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b osm\u00e9ho toku v\u00a0po\u0159ad\u00ed ozna\u010den\u00e9ho zelen\u00fdm krou\u017ekem \u010din\u00ed dne\u0161n\u00ed diskontovan\u00e1 hodnota<\/strong> kup\u00f3nu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 32 USD splatn\u00e1 15.7.2027 \u010d\u00e1stku <\/span>24.625 USD<\/span> (3)<\/span><\/strong>. Pro pot\u0159eby v\u00fdpo\u010dtu pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 doby do splatnosti je t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1stce p\u0159isouzen\u00e1 v\u00e1ha sv\u00e9ho budouc\u00edho po\u0159ad\u00ed (tedy hodnota 8) a touto vahou je takto diskontovan\u00fd kup\u00f3n vyn\u00e1soben. Sou\u010det v\u0161ech takto zv\u00e1\u017een\u00fdch diskontovan\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stek je pak <\/span>17.945,66<\/span> (4)<\/span><\/strong>. Nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 pak, ne\u017e tento v\u00fdsledn\u00fd sou\u010det<\/strong><\/span> (4)<\/span><\/strong> porovnat s\u00a0<\/span>po\u0159izovac\u00ed cenou dluhopisu<\/span> (1)<\/span><\/strong> a zjistit (17.945,66\/977.30 = 18.36), \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti<\/strong> tohoto dluhopisu (v\u00fdsledek mus\u00edm d\u011blit dv\u011bma \u2013 jedn\u00e1 se o pololetn\u00ed p\u0159ipisov\u00e1n\u00ed kup\u00f3n\u016f) je opravdu (18.36\/2) deklarovan\u00fdch 9.18 let<\/strong>. Z uveden\u00e9ho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu je pak jasn\u011b patrn\u00e9, \u017ee p\u0159i ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nu (diskontovan\u00e9 cash flow bude m\u00edt v jednotliv\u00fdch polo\u017ek\u00e1ch vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnoty) budu pom\u011b\u0159ovat s aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cenou dluhopisu (977.30 USD) vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stku v \u010ditateli v\u00fdpo\u010dtu a celkov\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti se tak bude zvy\u0161ovat. Mohu tak nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159i stejn\u00fdch okolnostech zadat v\u00fdpo\u010det pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 doby do splatnosti dluhopisu pro zadan\u00fd t\u0159in\u00e1ctilet\u00fd dluhopis MET kup\u00f3n pouze ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2% p.a.<\/strong> a pozorovat, jak se prodlou\u017e\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti takto upraven\u00e9m, sn\u00ed\u017een\u00e9m kup\u00f3nu:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed kup\u00f3n<\/strong> znamen\u00e1 men\u0161\u00ed budouc\u00ed cash flow<\/strong> a prodlu\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed se pr\u016fm\u011brnou dobu do splatnosti, mohu pak pozorovat, \u017ee kup\u00f3n ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2% p.a. zp\u016fsobil prodlou\u017een\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 doby do splatnosti na 11.86 let<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee je to logick\u00e9 zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a pokud jsem rozhodnut\u00fd dr\u017eet dluhopis do splatnosti, je mi celkem jedno, jak\u00e1 je pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti. Pro\u010d to tedy vlastn\u011b hraje n\u011bjakou v\u00fdznamnou roli? V\u00fdznam pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 doby splatnosti je sm\u011brodatn\u00e1 hodnota, kter\u00e1 ur\u010duje citlivost dluhopisu na zm\u011bnu \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, a to je hlavn\u00ed podstata nutnosti jej\u00edho vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed. V \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span> Dluhopisy \u2013 VIII.<\/a><\/strong><\/span> jsem ji\u017e popisoval, \u017ee pokud pom\u011b\u0159\u00edm hodnotu<\/strong> Macaulayovy Durace<\/em> (tedy vlastn\u011b pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 doby do splatnosti<\/strong>) s aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm v\u00fdnosem dluhopisu<\/strong>, mohu z\u00edskat tzv. Modifikovanou Duraci<\/strong>, obecn\u011b popisovanou pouze jako \u201eduraci\u201c, tedy kvantifikov\u00e1n\u00ed reakce zm\u011bny ceny<\/strong> dluhopisu na zm\u011bnu jeho v\u00fdnosu<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Pom\u011b\u0159en\u00edm pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 doby do splatnosti<\/strong> dluhopisu, tedy Macaulayovy Durace<\/em>, ve v\u00fd\u0161i<\/span> 9,18 (1)<\/span><\/strong> s\u00a0vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem do splatnosti<\/strong> ve v\u00fd\u0161i <\/span>6.658% p.a.<\/span> (2)<\/span><\/strong> zjist\u00edm duraci<\/strong> m\u00e9ho t\u0159in\u00e1ctilet\u00e9ho dluhopisu (9.18\/1.06658) s\u00a0hodnotou <\/span>8.61%<\/span> (3)<\/span><\/strong>. M\u00e1m tak zji\u0161t\u011bno, \u017ee pokud se zm\u011bn\u00ed v\u00fdnos<\/strong> dluhopisu o +1.00%<\/strong>, potom klesne cena<\/strong> m\u00e9ho dluhopisu o -8.61%<\/strong>. Pochopen\u00ed t\u00e9to souvislosti je jedno z\u00a0nejpodstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch k\u00a0pochopen\u00ed, jak vyb\u00edrat dluhopis v\u00a0souvislost\u00ed s\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1vanou zm\u011bnu v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f. Proto\u017ee citlivost dluhopis\u016f na zm\u011bnu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a pota\u017emo v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f (durace) je d\u00e1na pod\u00edlem pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 doby do splatnosti a v\u00fdnosem dluhopisu, je z\u00a0charakteru pod\u00edlu z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm del\u0161\u00ed<\/strong> bude pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti dluhopisu<\/strong>, t\u00edm bude citlivost<\/strong> na zm\u011bnu v\u00fdnosu (durace) vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed<\/strong>. Na zm\u011bnu v\u00fdnos\u016f (nap\u0159\u00edklad r\u016fst) tak budou reagovat v\u00edce dluhopisy s del\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brnou dobou do splatnosti (jejich cena v\u00edce klesne) ne\u017e bude reakce dluhopis\u016f s krat\u0161\u00ed dobou do splatnosti. Pokud budu m\u00edt na sv\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu po\u0159\u00edzeny dva dluhopisy se stejnou dobou do splatnosti a p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b stejnou po\u0159izovac\u00ed cenou, citliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na zm\u011bnu v\u00fdnos\u016f (vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed duraci) budou m\u00edt dluhopisy s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nem, proto\u017ee ten dluhopis, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 stejn\u00e9 parametry, ale ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed kup\u00f3n, m\u00e1 del\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brnou dobu do splatnosti, tato pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 del\u0161\u00ed doba do splatnosti pak vstupuje do popisovan\u00e9ho vzorce durace, do jeho \u010ditatele, s vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnotou p\u0159i stejn\u00e9m jmenovateli a zp\u016fsobuje tak vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnotu vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1van\u00e9 durace.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Mohu si op\u011bt prov\u00e9st demonstraci s\u00a0t\u0159in\u00e1ctilet\u00fdch dluhopisem MET<\/strong>, kter\u00e9mu p\u0159i stejn\u00fdch parametrech sn\u00ed\u017e\u00edm kup\u00f3n<\/strong> na \u00farove\u0148 2% p.a.<\/strong>,<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed kup\u00f3nov\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu<\/strong> ze 6.4% p.a. na \u00farove\u0148 2% p.a.<\/strong> zp\u016fsobilo n\u00e1r\u016fst durace<\/strong> dluhopisu z 8.61% na 11.60%<\/strong>. Mus\u00edm tak po\u010d\u00edtat, \u017ee jedno procento r\u016fstu v\u00fdnosu dluhopisu sraz\u00ed jeho cenu o -11.60%. Mohu se tak nyn\u00ed pokusit vy\u0159e\u0161it prvn\u00ed dilema, kter\u00fdm by mohlo b\u00fdt v\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed, jakou investici s dluhopisem vlastn\u011b prov\u00e9st. Pokud budu cht\u00edt pojmout dluhopisovou investici jako dlouhodobou z\u00e1le\u017eitost a je mi celkem jedno, jestli se cena dluhopisu bude n\u011bjak pohybovat, potom se mohu p\u0159i investici do dluhopisu dr\u017een\u00e9ho do splatnosti zam\u011b\u0159it na jeho v\u00fdnos a tento si p\u0159ipravit investic\u00ed do dluhopisu za dobrou cenu s odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm kup\u00f3nem. Pokud chci dluhopisovou investici pojmout jako investici do ceny dluhopisu a po\u017eadovat z tohoto obchodu kapit\u00e1lov\u00fd v\u00fdnos spojen\u00fd se zm\u011bnou jeho ceny, m\u011bl bych se zam\u011b\u0159it na dluhopisy s vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed durac\u00ed, toto by m\u011blo, v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pohybu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb s odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed zm\u011bnou v\u00fdnosu dr\u017een\u00e9ho dluhopisu, p\u0159in\u00e9st k\u00fd\u017een\u00fd pohyb ceny samotn\u00e9ho dluhopisu a p\u0159in\u00e9st kapit\u00e1lov\u00fd v\u00fdnos vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z t\u00e9to zm\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Pro ilustraci mohu uk\u00e1zat \u010dty\u0159i t\u0159icetilet\u00e9 americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopisy s polo\u017een\u00edm ot\u00e1zky, kter\u00fd z nich se nejv\u00edce hod\u00ed na dlouhodob\u00e9 dr\u017een\u00ed nebo spekulaci na pohyb jeho ceny:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u010cty\u0159i t\u0159icetilet\u00e9 dluhopisy<\/strong> byly emitov\u00e1ny postupn\u011b v kv\u011btnu 2020, 2021, 2022 a 2023. P\u0159esto\u017ee je splatnost ka\u017ed\u00e9ho z nich v\u017edy o jeden rok del\u0161\u00ed a maj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 identick\u00fd YTM ve v\u00fd\u0161i kolem 5% p.a. (zelen\u00fd r\u00e1me\u010dek), zcela diametr\u00e1ln\u011b se li\u0161\u00ed jejich aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cena. Mohu pozorovat, \u017ee prvn\u00ed dluhopis se splatnost\u00ed v roce 2050 a s kup\u00f3nem pouze 1.25% p.a. se d\u00e1 po\u0159\u00eddit za 44.888% z Face Value, dluhopis s nejstar\u0161\u00ed splatnost\u00ed o t\u0159i roky pozd\u011bji v roce 2053 ji\u017e nese kup\u00f3n 3.625% p.a. a jeho aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cena p\u0159edstavuje 79.246% z Face Value, po\u0159izovac\u00ed ceny jsou uvedeny v \u010derven\u00e9m r\u00e1me\u010dku. Jak vypadaj\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 doby do splatnosti a durace jednotliv\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f po v\u00fdpo\u010dtu v m\u00e9m excelu je patrn\u00e9 n\u00ed\u017ee:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 P\u0159esto\u017ee je rozd\u00edl mezi splatnost\u00ed pouh\u00e9 t\u0159i roky, je rozd\u00edl v durac\u00edch dramatick\u00fd a je zp\u016fsoben v\u00fd\u0161i vypl\u00e1cen\u00e9ho kup\u00f3nu. Zat\u00edmco \u201enejmlad\u0161\u00ed\u201c t\u0159icetilet\u00fd dluhopis s kup\u00f3nem pouh\u00fdch 1.25% p.a. m\u00e1 duraci 19.46%, nejstar\u0161\u00ed dluhopis s trojn\u00e1sobn\u00fdm kup\u00f3nem ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3.625% p.a. m\u00e1 duraci 12.96%, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd p\u00e1d v\u00fdnos\u016f na t\u0159icetilet\u00fdch dluhopisech o -1% p.a. povede k r\u016fstu ceny dluhopisu s nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed durac\u00ed o z\u00e1vratn\u00fdch +19.46%. Na ot\u00e1zku, kter\u00fd z nich bych si vybral pro spekulaci na pohyb jeho ceny, je tak jasn\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f \u2013 dluhopis s nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nem. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b po\u017eadavku na po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed t\u0159icetilet\u00e9ho dluhopisu s c\u00edlem omezit jeho cenov\u00fd pohyb do splatnosti na co nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 by pak patrn\u011b padla volba na dluhopis s nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zerobondy<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Zobecn\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00edch \u0159\u00e1dk\u016f by mohly vyzn\u00edt tak, \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti kup\u00f3nov\u00e9ho dluhopisu<\/strong> je v\u017edy krat\u0161\u00ed<\/strong> ne\u017e doba do splatnosti tohoto dluhopisu<\/strong>. P\u0159ij\u00edman\u00e9 cash flow v\u00a0podob\u011b kup\u00f3nov\u00fdch plateb pak dobu do splatnosti zkracuj\u00ed a toto m\u00e1 vliv na volatilitu dluhopisu zp\u016fsobenou zm\u011bnou \u00farovn\u011b v\u00fdnos\u016f, kterou mohu m\u011b\u0159it durac\u00ed. Zerobondy, jako bezkup\u00f3nov\u00e9 dluhopisy, ale nemaj\u00ed do sv\u00e9 splatnosti \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 cash flow, pouze jedin\u00e9 \u2013 u splatnosti dluhopisu je investorovi splacena Face Value tohoto dluhopisu. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti zerobondu<\/strong> je tak rovna dob\u011b do splatnosti<\/strong> tohoto dluhopisu. P\u011btilet\u00fd zerobond bez kup\u00f3nu m\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011brnou dobu do splatnosti p\u011bt let, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 diskontov\u00e1n\u00ed a sou\u010det v\u00e1\u017een\u00fdch diskont\u016f pom\u011b\u0159en\u00fd s\u00a0cenou dluhopisu, tento v\u00fdpo\u010det odpad\u00e1. Jak se projev\u00ed neexistence pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho cash flow u zerobondu do durace a jeho citlivosti na zm\u011bnu v\u00fdnos\u016f v\u00a0praktick\u00e9 uk\u00e1zce:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 Ze screeneru v aplikaci TWS m\u00e9ho brokera mohu vybrat dva<\/strong> americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopisy<\/strong> se stejnou dobou do splatnosti, a to k\u00a015.5.2030<\/strong>. Tyto zhruba \u0161estilet\u00e9 dluhopisy se li\u0161\u00ed pouze t\u00edm, \u017ee prvn\u00ed dluhopis nese <\/span>kup\u00f3n 6.25% p.a.<\/span> (1)<\/span> <\/strong>a jeho po\u0159izovac\u00ed cena je 1081.29 USD, kde\u017eto druh\u00fd dluhopis je zerobond (2)<\/span><\/strong>, kter\u00fd nenese \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd kup\u00f3n a jeho po\u0159izovac\u00ed cena je 732.73 USD. Pro prozkoum\u00e1n\u00ed kup\u00f3nov\u00e9ho dluhopisu<\/strong> mohu pou\u017e\u00edt n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00fd obr\u00e1zek:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 doba do splatnosti<\/strong> dluhopisu s kup\u00f3nem je 5.85 let<\/strong> a pom\u011b\u0159en\u00edm s\u00a0vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem do splatnosti ve v\u00fd\u0161i 4.449% mohu konstatovat, \u017ee tento dluhopis bude m\u00edt duraci<\/strong> (5.85\/1.04449) ve v\u00fd\u0161i 5.60%<\/strong>. Citlivost na pohyb v\u00fdnosu o jedno procento bude doprov\u00e1zena pohybem ceny dluhopisu o +\/-5.60%. Pomoc\u00ed stejn\u00e9ho excelu na listu \u201eZerobond\u201c mohu vypo\u010d\u00edtat parametry druh\u00e9ho dluhopisu (zerobondu):<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Doba do splatnosti<\/strong> je 6.61 rok\u016f (1)<\/span><\/strong> a p\u0159i vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9m v\u00fdnosu do splatnosti 4.818% p.a. (2)<\/span><\/strong> mohu konstatovat, \u017ee vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e1 durace<\/strong> (6.60\/1.04818) tohoto zerobondu bude 6.32%<\/strong>. Ka\u017ed\u00fd pohyb v\u00fdnosu o jeden procentn\u00ed bod pak bude doprov\u00e1zen zm\u011bnou ceny zerobondu +\/-6.2%. Absence kup\u00f3nov\u00fdch plateb pak zp\u016fsobuje, \u017ee pokud budu cht\u00edt spekulovat na pohyb ceny dluhopisu, bude pro m\u011b zerobond vhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed volbou, jeho vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatilita mi zaru\u010duje lep\u0161\u00ed cenov\u00e9 reakce na zm\u011bnu \u00farovn\u011b v\u00fdnos\u016f. K rozhodnut\u00ed dr\u017eet zerobond do splatnosti d\u00edky \u201ezafixov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c v\u00fdnosu p\u0159i jeho po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed odejmut\u00edm reinvesti\u010dn\u00edho rizika popsan\u00e9ho v minul\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku tak mohu p\u0159ipo\u010d\u00edtat jeho dal\u0161\u00ed vlastnost k vyu\u017eit\u00ed –\u00a0 jeho vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed citlivosti (vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed duraci) na zm\u011bnu v\u00fdnosu ke spekulaci na cenov\u00fd pohyb zerobondu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Accrued Interest a poplatky<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dluhopisu s\u00a0c\u00edlem dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed investice mus\u00edm za\u0159\u00eddit tak, abych na t\u00e9to investici co nejv\u00edce vyd\u011blal. P\u0159esto\u017ee to vypad\u00e1, \u017ee je to nepodstatn\u00e9 zaob\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed se detaily, mus\u00edm do sv\u00fdch kalkulac\u00ed nakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0dluhopisem zahrnout tak\u00e9 skute\u010dnost, \u017ee po\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm dluhopisu v\u00a0obdob\u00ed mezi v\u00fdplatou kup\u00f3n\u016f mus\u00edm \u010d\u00e1st nab\u011bhl\u00fdch \u00farok\u016f z\u00a0kup\u00f3nu odevzdat b\u00fdval\u00e9mu vlastn\u00edkovi dluhopisu a tak\u00e9 mus\u00edm p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnout ke skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee za dluhopis zaplat\u00edm n\u011bjak\u00fd poplatek sv\u00e9mu brokerovi. To, \u017ee se nejedn\u00e1 o zanedbateln\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky, kter\u00e9 se mohou propsat do budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnosti mohu uk\u00e1zat op\u011bt na dluhopisu MET.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00e1kup dluhopisu MET<\/span> (1)<\/strong><\/span> s kup\u00f3nem<\/span> 6.4% p.a.<\/span> (2)<\/span><\/strong> prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm platformy m\u00e9ho brokera za cenu Ask ve v\u00fd\u0161i 961.54 USD (5)<\/span><\/strong> avizuje v\u00fdnos dluhopisu (YTM) ve v\u00fd\u0161i 6.846% p.a. (6)<\/span><\/strong>. P\u0159esto\u017ee do konstrukce a zobrazen\u00ed tohoto v\u00fdnosu v platform\u011b m\u00e9ho brokera vstupuje je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed skute\u010dnost popsan\u00e1 pozd\u011bji v \u010dl\u00e1nku, mohu vypozorovat, \u017ee pokud si nasimuluji sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010det YTM pomoc\u00ed sv\u00e9 excelovsk\u00e9 aplikace, dostanu jin\u00fd v\u00fdsledek:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm mus\u00edm do po\u0159izovac\u00ed ceny, v\u00fddaje na n\u00e1kup dluhopisu, zakomponovat n\u00e1klad na \u010d\u00e1st kup\u00f3nov\u00e9 platby<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 mi nepat\u0159\u00ed<\/strong> a poplatek<\/strong>, kter\u00fd zaplat\u00edm za dluhopisovou transakci<\/span> (1)<\/strong><\/span>. Proto\u017ee kupuji dluhopis 7.10.2023 a dal\u0161\u00ed kup\u00f3nov\u00e1 platby je 15.12.2023, mus\u00edm odevzdat \u010d\u00e1st tohoto prvn\u00edho kup\u00f3nu, kter\u00fd inkasuji, majiteli dluhopisu, od kter\u00e9ho jej po\u0159izuji. V \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span> Dluhopisy \u2013 V.<\/a><\/span><\/strong> je pops\u00e1no, jak v\u00fdpo\u010det takov\u00e9 polo\u017eky vypad\u00e1, v\u00a0m\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b odevzd\u00e1v\u00e1m p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu vlastn\u00edkovi \u010d\u00e1st budouc\u00edho kup\u00f3nu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 32 USD za obdob\u00ed od jeho posledn\u00ed v\u00fdplaty 15.7.2023 do okam\u017eiku, kdy jsem dluhopis po\u0159\u00eddil, tedy k\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00edmu datu 7.10.2023. Z\u00a0obr\u00e1zku mohu vypozorovat, \u017ee tato \u010d\u00e1stka \u010din\u00ed 14.756 USD<\/strong>. Spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0komis\u00ed za proveden\u00fd obchod<\/strong> ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1.00 USD<\/strong> tak nepo\u0159izuji dluhopis za cenu uvedenou v\u00a0m\u00e9 platform\u011b ve v\u00fd\u0161i 961.54 USD, ale celkov\u00e1 po\u0159izovac\u00ed cena je nyn\u00ed (-961.54 USD \u2013 14.756 USD -1.00 USD) ve v\u00fd\u0161i <\/span>-977.30 USD<\/span> (2)<\/span><\/strong>. Pokud do v\u00fdpo\u010dtu v\u00fdnosu zahrnu tyto platby, je celkov\u00fd v\u00fdnos do splatnosti<\/strong> ve v\u00fd\u0161i 6.658% p.a.<\/strong><\/span> (3)<\/span><\/strong> a li\u0161\u00ed se od YTM zobrazovan\u00e9ho v platform\u011b o -0.135%<\/strong>. Mohu pak pro zaj\u00edmavost uk\u00e1zat, nakolik se v\u00fdpo\u010det p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed hodnot\u011b z\u00a0platformy TWS, pokud do sv\u00e9ho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu Accrued Interest<\/strong> a poplatky<\/strong> v\u016fbec nezahrnu<\/strong>:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Nulov\u00fd Accrued Interest<\/strong> a poplatky<\/strong> za obchod<\/span> (1)<\/strong><\/span> zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed, \u017ee do sv\u00e9ho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu zahrnuji opravdu po\u0159izovac\u00ed cenu -961.54 USD, kterou vid\u00edm ve sv\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed platform\u011b<\/span> (2)<\/strong><\/span>, tyto hodnoty pak navy\u0161uj\u00ed v\u00fdnos do splatnosti <\/strong>na hodnotu <\/span>6.841% p.a.<\/span> (3)<\/span><\/strong>, co\u017e je YTM, kter\u00fd mi TWS aktu\u00e1ln\u011b zobrazuje (6.846% p.a.).<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Mus\u00edm si tak uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee n\u00e1kup dluhopisu podle hodnot, kter\u00e9 mi zobrazuje m\u00e1 obchodn\u00ed platforma, je pouze orienta\u010dn\u00ed a skute\u010dn\u00e9 parametry proveden\u00e9ho obchodu se od skute\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 jsem cht\u011bl dos\u00e1hnout mohou m\u00edrn\u011b li\u0161it. Mohu si tak pouze povzdechnout nad telefon\u00e1tem jak\u00e9hosi finan\u010dn\u00edho poradce, kter\u00fd mi nab\u00edzel dluhopisy nejmenovan\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti a za p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b uzav\u0159enou transakci \u201eby si tedy na\u00fa\u010dtoval 4% poplatek z objemu obchodu\u201c\u2026.:c).<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Call a detaily se svol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm emis\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Mo\u017enost svolat emisi dluhopisu (nebo jej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st) sv\u00fdm emitentem p\u0159ed datem splatnosti dluhopisu jsem ji\u017e popisoval v \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span> Dluhopisy \u2013 VII.<\/strong><\/span><\/a> P\u0159esto\u017ee jsem tuto problematiku ji\u017e popsal, cht\u011bl bych se zam\u011b\u0159it na n\u011bkter\u00e9 jej\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed nuance. Z\u00e1kladn\u00edm sd\u011blen\u00edm do za\u010d\u00e1tku tohoto probl\u00e9mu je konstatov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopisy<\/strong> jsou dluhov\u00e9 cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry, kter\u00e9 nejsou \u201eCallable\u201c<\/strong> a jejich po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 dr\u017een\u00ed mi nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ekazit, emitent \u2013 americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da \u2013 nem\u016f\u017ee tyto vydan\u00e9 emise svolat zp\u011bt. Ve sv\u011bt\u011b korpor\u00e1tn\u00edch a municip\u00e1ln\u00edch dluhopis\u016f je ale tato mo\u017enost p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho svol\u00e1n\u00ed natolik v\u00fdznamn\u00fd faktor, \u017ee je nutn\u00e9 s n\u00edm p\u0159i investici do \u201ecallable\u201c dluhopis\u016f po\u010d\u00edtat. Tato \u201einvesti\u010dn\u00ed komplikace\u201c je nav\u00edc investorovi zt\u00ed\u017eena skute\u010dnost\u00ed, \u017ee mus\u00ed p\u0159i zam\u00fd\u0161len\u00e9 investici do dluhopisu s mo\u017enost\u00ed p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise zevrubn\u011b prozkoumat parametry t\u00e9to ud\u00e1losti, zejm\u00e9na to pak znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mus\u00ed prozkoumat prospekt dluhopisov\u00e9 emise, kde by m\u011bly b\u00fdt podm\u00ednky a term\u00edny takov\u00e9ho p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho svol\u00e1n\u00ed podrobn\u011b pops\u00e1ny. S odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na minul\u00e9 \u010dl\u00e1nky p\u0159ipomenu, \u017ee svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise nebo jej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u017edy v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 pro emitenta, proto\u017ee je zalo\u017eeno na p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee se v budoucnosti mohou na trz\u00edch vyskytnout situace, kdy bude pro n\u011bj vhodn\u00e9 emisi \u201enakoupit zp\u011bt\u201c a z\u00edskat nov\u00e9 finance vyd\u00e1n\u00edm nov\u00e9 emise, toto se pak stane v situaci, kdy jsou na trz\u00edch ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy, ne\u017e je kup\u00f3n svol\u00e1van\u00e9 emise, tedy ne\u017e byly p\u0159i jej\u00edm emitov\u00e1n\u00ed. Emitenti tedy mohou vym\u011bnit star\u0161\u00ed emisi s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nem za novou emisi s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nem. Jak\u00fdch „z\u00e1kladn\u00edch tvar\u016f“ mohou nab\u00fdvat tato p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e1 svol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

Svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise v ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku v budoucnosti za danou cenu (Call Date)<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed dluhopisu MET<\/strong> z\u00a0pohledu Call mohu zah\u00e1jit v\u00a0platform\u011b sv\u00e9ho brokera, kde mohu v\u00a0popisu tohoto finan\u010dn\u00edho n\u00e1stroje vypozorovat upozorn\u011bn\u00ed na mo\u017enost svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0P\u0159esto\u017ee by mohlo toto zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed Call data sta\u010dit, bude patrn\u011b vhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prozkoumat tuto okolnost detailn\u011bji v dokumentech t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se t\u00e9to emise. Prozkoum\u00e1n\u00edm <\/span>prospektu dluhopisu MET<\/a><\/strong><\/span> se splatnost\u00ed 15.12.2036 mohu zjistit, \u017ee emitent m\u016f\u017ee prov\u00e9st n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e9 transakce:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Pokud po\u0159\u00edd\u00edm nyn\u00ed dluhopis MET se splatnost\u00ed 15.12.2036, mohu zjistit, \u017ee emitent opravdu m\u016f\u017ee svolat emisi<\/strong> nebo jej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st <\/span>15.12.2031<\/span> (1)<\/span><\/strong>, tedy p\u011bt let p\u0159ed splatnost\u00ed tohoto dluhopisu. V odstavci se d\u00e1le uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159i svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise bude dr\u017eitel\u016fm dluhopis\u016f vyd\u00e1na hotovost v hodnot\u011b \u201epar redemption amount\u201c. Mohu tak\u00e9 zjistit, \u017ee cel\u00e1 emise nebo jej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt svol\u00e1na kdykoliv p\u0159ed 15.12.1931<\/strong> v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee nastane ud\u00e1lost ozna\u010den\u00e1 jako \u201etax event\u201c <\/strong>nebo <\/span>\u201erating agency event\u201c<\/span> (2)<\/span><\/strong>. Mohu tak usoudit, \u017ee 15.12.2031<\/strong> je tzv. First Call Date<\/strong>, pokud nenastanou ve spole\u010dnosti MET Life ud\u00e1losti popisovan\u00e9 jako \u201etax event\u201c a \u201erating agency event\u201c, jejich\u017e definice je d\u00e1le v prospektu p\u0159esn\u011b pops\u00e1na. Bude m\u011b pak zaj\u00edmat, co vlastn\u011b od emitenta obdr\u017e\u00edm, pokud bude emise svol\u00e1na zp\u011bt, kdy\u017e toto pln\u011bn\u00ed se v prospektu ozna\u010duje za \u201epar redemption amount\u201c<\/strong>. V textu prospektu mohu zjistit n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b svol\u00e1n\u00ed obdr\u017e\u00edm opravdu Face Value<\/strong> m\u00e9 investice (principal amount) plus \u00faroky<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 mi ke dni svol\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed (my\u0161leno \u00faroky z n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed kup\u00f3nov\u00e9 v\u00fdplaty, pokud je Call Date v term\u00ednu mezi v\u00fdplatami kup\u00f3n\u016f). Mohlo by m\u011b zaj\u00edmat, jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise zas\u00e1hne do v\u00fdnosu nakoupen\u00e9ho dluhopisu, proto\u017ee jeho po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed bylo spojeno s o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm ur\u010dit\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu a p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed \u017eivota m\u00e9 investice svol\u00e1n\u00edm se na pl\u00e1novan\u00e9m v\u00fdnosu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b projev\u00ed. Pomoc\u00ed m\u00e9ho excelu mohu modelovat tak\u00e9 tuto situaci podle obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Kliknut\u00ed na tla\u010d\u00edtko \u201eYield To Call\u201c<\/strong> mohu iniciovat v\u00fdpo\u010det v\u00fdnosu do data svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise<\/strong> za podm\u00ednky, \u017ee m\u00e1m vypln\u011bny bu\u0148ky <\/span>\u201eCallable?\u201c<\/span> (1)<\/span><\/strong>, \u201eCall Date\u201c<\/span> (2)<\/span><\/strong> a <\/span>\u201eJe p\u0159i Call Date spl\u00e1tka kup\u00f3nu?\u201c<\/span> (3)<\/span><\/strong>, vypln\u011bn\u00ed t\u011bchto bun\u011bk je z rozev\u00edrac\u00edch seznam\u016f. Mohu potom pro dan\u00fd dluhopis nechat skriptem vygenerovat pouze diskontovan\u00e9 kup\u00f3nov\u00e9 platby a spl\u00e1tku Face Value do Call Date a z\u00a0nich stanovit v\u00fdnos pr\u00e1v\u011b k\u00a0tomuto datu \u2013 <\/span>Yield To Call<\/span> (4)<\/span><\/strong>. Mohu pak po v\u00fdpo\u010dtu konstatovat, \u017ee Yield To Call<\/strong> je ve v\u00fd\u0161i 6.755% p.a.<\/strong>, je tedy m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed<\/strong> ne\u017e v\u00fdnos do splatnosti (YTM)<\/strong>, kter\u00fd je vypo\u010dten na \u00farovni <\/span>6.658% p.a.<\/span> (5)<\/span><\/strong>. Yield To Call je v\u017edy m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e YTM, proto\u017ee je v n\u011bm prom\u00edtnuta skute\u010dnost, \u017ee obdr\u017e\u00edm spl\u00e1tku Face Value d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e bych na tuto skute\u010dnost \u010dekal do \u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9ho term\u00ednu splatnosti dluhopisu a tato skute\u010dnost mi umo\u017e\u0148uje tyto d\u0159\u00edve z\u00edskan\u00e9 pen\u00edze d\u00e1le zhodnocovat jin\u00fdmi zp\u016fsoby. P\u0159esto\u017ee je toto pozn\u00e1n\u00ed pro investora p\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9, je toto zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed o vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdnosu m\u00edrn\u011b zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed. Emitent k p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9mu svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise toti\u017e p\u0159ikro\u010d\u00ed v\u017edy pouze v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee to bude pro n\u011bj v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 a to je v situaci, kdy svol\u00e1vanou emisi nahrad\u00ed novou emis\u00ed s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nem. Toto se pak stane za situace, kdy jsou na trz\u00edch n\u00edzk\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy, to ale pro dr\u017eitele dluhopisu znamen\u00e1, \u017ee z\u00edskan\u00e9 prost\u0159edky na trz\u00edch bude d\u00e1le zhodnocovat s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fdnosy. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed s Yield To Call tak trp\u00ed reinvesti\u010dn\u00edm rizikem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise za cenu dle aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed situace na trz\u00edch<\/strong><\/span> (Make-Whole Redemption)<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Stanoven\u00e9 datum First Call Date a jasn\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det ceny, kterou obdr\u017e\u00ed dr\u017eitel dluhopisu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt nahrazena m\u00edrn\u011b slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed konstrukc\u00ed, kter\u00e1 kombinuje v\u00fdpo\u010det \u201ev\u00fdkupn\u00e9ho\u201c p\u0159i svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise z\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed ceny dluhopisu s\u00a0p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed situaci na dluhopisov\u00fdch trz\u00edch. Mohu tuto konstrukci demonstrovat na dluhopisu Walmart Inc. (WMT)<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Spole\u010dnost WMT emitovala dluhopis se splatnost\u00ed 8.7.2029, kter\u00fd nese kup\u00f3n 3.25%m p.a., kup\u00f3nov\u00e9 spl\u00e1tky jsou splatn\u00e9 v\u017edy 8. ledna a 8. \u010dervence ka\u017ed\u00e9ho roku do splatnosti, dluhopis mohu aktu\u00e1ln\u011b po\u0159\u00eddit za 916.67 USD. Pokud si zobraz\u00edm informace o nab\u00edzen\u00e9m dluhopisu v m\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed platform\u011b, mohu vypozorovat n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e9 informace t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se Call Date.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Ze zobrazen\u00e9ho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee Call Date<\/strong> je stanoven na 8.4.2029<\/strong>, tedy t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce p\u0159ed splatnost\u00ed<\/strong> dluhopisu. Pokud ale nahl\u00e9dnu do prospektu dluhopisu WMT<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, je situace s p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdm svol\u00e1n\u00edm jin\u00e1:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 datum<\/strong> spojen\u00e9 se svol\u00e1n\u00edm dluhopisov\u00e9 emise zde nen\u00ed stanoveno<\/strong>. V\u00a0praxi to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee emitent m\u016f\u017ee dluhopisy svolat a vyplatit kdykoliv, kdy to bude pro n\u011bj v\u00fdhodn\u00e9, o tomto sv\u00e9m kroku informuje dr\u017eitele dluhopis\u016f ozn\u00e1men\u00edm v\u00a0m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm p\u0159edstihu. Mohu pak z\u00a0prospektu vy\u010d\u00edst, \u017ee WMT emitoval v\u00a0roce 2019 celkem t\u0159i emise dluhopis\u016f s\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdmi kup\u00f3ny a s\u00a0r\u016fznou dobou do splatnosti (2.850%\/2024, 3.050%\/2026 a 3.25%\/2029), analyzovan\u00fd dluhopis<\/strong> je pak variantou s\u00a0nejdel\u0161\u00ed splatnost\u00ed v\u00a0roce 2029<\/strong> a kup\u00f3nem 3.25% p.a<\/strong>.. Z textu v obr\u00e1zku pak mohu vy\u010d\u00edst, \u017ee WMT m\u016f\u017ee kdykoliv svolat<\/strong> emisi do 8.4.2029<\/strong> za n\u011bjak\u00fdch podm\u00ednek, datum 8.4.2029 z m\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed platformy tak nen\u00ed Call Date, ale den, od kter\u00e9ho u\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 svol\u00e1n\u00ed nehroz\u00ed, co\u017e je celkem v\u00fdznamn\u00fd faktick\u00fd rozd\u00edl.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Z\u00a0textu d\u00e1le vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159i svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise<\/strong> dostane dr\u017eitel dluhopisu pln\u011bn\u00ed<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 je aktu\u00e1ln\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnotou ze dvou<\/strong> nab\u00edzen\u00fdch variant:<\/strong><\/span> (1)<\/strong> <\/span>obdr\u017e\u00ed Face Value<\/strong> a \u00farok<\/strong>, kter\u00fd nab\u011bhne dr\u017eiteli dluhopisu z\u00a0jeho kup\u00f3nu ke dni svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise, den svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise se do v\u00fdpo\u010dtu nezapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1 nebo<\/span> (2)<\/strong><\/span> obdr\u017e\u00ed sou\u010det sou\u010dasn\u00e9 hodnoty<\/strong> v\u0161ech \u201eRemaining Sheduled Payments\u201c<\/strong> a op\u011bt \u00farok<\/strong>, kter\u00fd nab\u011bhne dr\u017eiteli dluhopisu z\u00a0jeho kup\u00f3nu ke dni svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise. P\u0159i zji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong> sou\u010dasn\u00e9 hodnoty \u201eRemaining Sheduled Payments\u201c svolavatel vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 jejich hodnotu diskontov\u00e1n\u00edch<\/strong> t\u011bchto budouc\u00edch plateb<\/strong> pomoc\u00ed aktu\u00e1ln\u011b obchodovan\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu americk\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhopisu<\/strong> se splatnost\u00ed jako je splatnost svol\u00e1van\u00e9ho dluhopisu<\/strong>, ke kter\u00e9 p\u0159i\u010dte spread<\/strong> (v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b svol\u00e1van\u00e9 emise se splatnost\u00ed v\u00a0roce 2029) ve v\u00fd\u0161i +12.5 bazick\u00e9ho bodu<\/strong> (+0.125%). Takto stanoven\u00e9mu v\u00fdpo\u010dtu ceny dluhopisu k v\u00fdplat\u011b p\u0159i svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u201emake-whole call provisions\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0Zp\u016fsob v\u00fdpo\u010dtu prvn\u00ed varianty, tedy v\u00fdplata Face Value a nab\u011bhl\u00e9ho \u00faroku ke dni svol\u00e1n\u00ed je ji\u017e asi jasn\u00e1 a je stejn\u00e1, jako u p\u0159edchoz\u00edho p\u0159\u00edkladu s dluhopisem MET a pevn\u011b stanoven\u00fdm Call Date. Druh\u00e1 varianta je komplikovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, nicm\u00e9n\u011b nen\u00ed slo\u017eit\u00e9 ji porozum\u011bt. Mohu si tak p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee je na dne\u0161n\u00ed den (7.10.2023) ohl\u00e1\u0161eno p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 svol\u00e1n\u00ed dluhopisu WMT se splatnost\u00ed v roce 2029 a s kup\u00f3nem 3.25% p.a. V\u00fdpo\u010det ceny dluhopisu k v\u00fdplat\u011b pak bude sest\u00e1vat z n\u011bkolika krok\u016f podle popisu v prospektu:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a01\/<\/strong> Prvn\u00edm krokem je stanoven\u00ed v\u0161ech budouc\u00edch plateb<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 mi ke dni svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise (k dne\u0161n\u00edmu dni) zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed do splatnosti<\/strong> a kter\u00e9 jsem o\u010dek\u00e1val, \u017ee nastanou. Budou to tedy v\u0161echny pololetn\u00ed kup\u00f3nov\u00e9 platby a z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e1 spl\u00e1tka Face Value ke dni splatnosti, tedy k 8.7.2029. Tyto platby na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Dluhopis p\u0159i kup\u00f3nu 3.25% p.a. vypl\u00e1c\u00ed 16.25 USD v\u00a0pololetn\u00edch term\u00ednech. Remaining Sheduled Payments<\/strong> je tak pr\u00e1v\u011b tato \u0159ada<\/strong> budouc\u00edho cash flow. Nyn\u00ed bude zapot\u0159eb\u00ed, podle prospektu, z\u00edskat jejich sou\u010dasnou hodnotu diskontov\u00e1n\u00edm ka\u017ed\u00e9 t\u00e9to polo\u017eky a prov\u00e9st jejich sou\u010det.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a02\/<\/strong> Prov\u00e9st diskontov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong> jednotliv\u00fdch polo\u017eek t\u00e9to \u0159ady plateb k dne\u0161n\u00edmu dni nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd probl\u00e9m, probl\u00e9mem je nal\u00e9zt v\u00fdnos, podle kter\u00e9ho budeme diskontovat. V prospektu je uvedeno, \u017ee v\u00fdnos, kter\u00fdm budeme diskontovat se bude rovnat aktu\u00e1ln\u00edmu v\u00fdnosu vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhopisu s dobou splatnosti odkupovan\u00e9ho dluhopisu (8.7.2029) a k tomuto v\u00fdnosu bude p\u0159ipo\u010dten spread ve v\u00fd\u0161i 0.125%.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Hled\u00e1n\u00ed odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edho vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhopisu se splatnost\u00ed v \u010dervenci 2029 by mohl odpov\u00eddat dluhopis z obr\u00e1zku v\u00fd\u0161e, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdnos<\/strong> ve v\u00fd\u0161i 4.734% p.a.<\/strong> Pokud by byl vybr\u00e1n k v\u00fdpo\u010dtu tento dluhopis (zp\u016fsob v\u00fdb\u011bru a osoby, kter\u00e1 jej vyb\u00edr\u00e1, je v prospektu pops\u00e1n) musel bych k tomuto v\u00fdnosu p\u0159i\u010d\u00edst definovan\u00fd spread (+0,125%), kone\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdnos pro diskontov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong> by tak \u010dinil (4.734% + 0.125%) kone\u010dn\u00fdch 4.859% p.a.<\/strong> Takto se\u010dten\u00fd v\u00fdnos pak bude pou\u017eit pro sestaven\u00ed sou\u010dtu diskontovan\u00fdch hodnot m\u00fdch budouc\u00edch cash flow, tento v\u00fdpo\u010det pak mohu op\u011bt za\u0159\u00eddit ve sv\u00e9m excelu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Jak\u00fdkoliv v\u00fdpo\u010det v\u00fdnosu do splatnosti jak\u00e9hokoliv dluhopisu je hled\u00e1n\u00ed takov\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu, kter\u00fd v\u0161echny budouc\u00ed pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed toky<\/strong> z\u00a0analyzovan\u00e9ho dluhopisu ve sv\u00e9m sou\u010dtu diskontuje na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cenu tohoto dluhopisu, mus\u00edm tedy tyto toky nejd\u0159\u00edve sestavit<\/span> (1)<\/strong><\/span> a potom mohu hledat, jak\u00fd v\u00fdnos mi tyto budouc\u00ed pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed toky nadiskontuje do aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed ceny. Mohu ale tak\u00e9 tento v\u00fdpo\u010det obr\u00e1tit a hledat pro po\u017eadovan\u00fd v\u00fdnos<\/strong> odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed cenu dluhopisu<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 jej pro danou \u0159adu cash flow reprezentuje. Toto mohu pozorovat v diskontovan\u00fdch cash flow ve sloupci <\/span>\u201eModelov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c<\/span> (2)<\/span><\/strong>, kde jsou v\u0161echny pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed toky diskontov\u00e1ny na sou\u010dasnou hodnotu v\u00fdnosem <\/span>4.859% p.a.<\/span> (3)<\/span><\/strong> (tento p\u0159ed v\u00fdpo\u010dtem mohu do mod\u0159e podbarven\u00e9 bu\u0148ky excelu na \u0159\u00e1dku „Po\u017eadovan\u00fd v\u00fdnos“ zadat), co\u017e reprezentuje aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdnos vybran\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhopisu s p\u0159ir\u00e1\u017ekou stanovenou v prospektu. Mohu pak vypozorovat, \u017ee tento sou\u010det pak d\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010d\u00edslo <\/span>917.12 USD<\/span> (4)<\/span><\/strong>, jako cenu, kterou bych mohl obdr\u017eet podle v\u00fdpo\u010dtu v prospektu (v t\u00e9to cen\u011b pak nen\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1na drobn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1stka p\u0159ipadaj\u00edc\u00ed na \u00farok z kup\u00f3nu od dne\u0161n\u00edho dne do v\u00fdplaty nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed kup\u00f3nov\u00e9 platby). Pokud by tedy emitent p\u0159ikro\u010dil nyn\u00ed ke svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise, musel by dr\u017eitel\u016fm dluhopis\u016f vyplatit vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stku z hodnot a) hodnoty Face Value + \u00faroku, kter\u00fd nab\u011bhne dr\u017eiteli dluhopisu z jeho kup\u00f3nu ke dni svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise \u2013 co\u017e je \u010d\u00e1stka m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 1.000 USD, b) hodnoty 917.12 USD (s malou p\u0159ir\u00e1\u017ekou za \u00farok do splatnosti nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edho kup\u00f3nu). Obdr\u017eel bych tak pln\u011bn\u00ed podle prvn\u00ed mo\u017enosti a pokud by se mi poda\u0159ili po\u0159\u00eddit dluhopis za cenu ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e je Face Value, obdr\u017eel bych na svol\u00e1van\u00e9m dluhopisu zaj\u00edmav\u00fd kapit\u00e1lov\u00fd v\u00fdnos z rozd\u00edlu mezi touto po\u0159izovac\u00ed cenou a jeho v\u00fdkupn\u00ed cenou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sinking Fund<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Vyd\u00e1n\u00ed dluhopisu emitenta zavazuje k pravideln\u00e9 v\u00fdplat\u011b kup\u00f3nu a ke spl\u00e1tce Face Value u data splatnosti. Jedn\u00e1 se tak o \u201emal\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky\u201c za \u017eivota emise (kup\u00f3nov\u00e9 platby) a velk\u00fd v\u00fddaj u splatnosti dluhopisu (platba Face Value). Takov\u00fd postup m\u016f\u017ee emitentovi zp\u016fsobit v budoucnosti (u splatnosti) zna\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1por na jeho hotov\u00e9 pen\u00edze, \u00a0a proto\u017ee budoucnost nelze nijak zodpov\u011bdn\u011b p\u0159edj\u00edmat, nemus\u00ed se s takovou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed nakonec tak\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b vypo\u0159\u00e1dat. Na trh uv\u00e1d\u011bnou emisi tak m\u016f\u017ee emitent doprovodit vytvo\u0159en\u00edm tzv. \u201eSinking Fund\u201c<\/strong>, na kter\u00fd bude pravideln\u011b odkl\u00e1dat prost\u0159edky<\/strong> ze sv\u00e9 \u010dinnosti a z t\u011bchto prost\u0159edk\u016f<\/strong> pak bude v pravideln\u00fdch intervalech skupovat<\/strong> zp\u011bt \u010d\u00e1sti vydan\u00e9 dluhopisov\u00e9 emise<\/strong>. Princip sinking fondu mohu demonstrovat na jednoduch\u00e9m modelov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edkladu:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Spole\u010dnost XYZ vyd\u00e1 desetilet\u00e9 dluhopisy za 100 milion\u016f dolar\u016f. Sou\u010dasn\u011b z\u0159\u00edd\u00ed Sinking Fund, tedy jak\u00fdsi \u201eUmo\u0159ovac\u00ed \u00fa\u010det\u201c, kter\u00fd nech\u00e1 spravovat t\u0159et\u00ed stranou, na kter\u00fd se zav\u00e1\u017ee pos\u00edlat ka\u017ed\u00fd rok trv\u00e1n\u00ed emise prost\u0159edky podle sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch mo\u017enost\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad 10 milion\u016f dolar\u016f. V prospektu pak deklaruje, \u017ee po p\u011bti letech \u017eivota emise bude ka\u017ed\u00fd rok prov\u00e1d\u011bt Call ve v\u00fd\u0161i 20% emise, na kter\u00e9 vyu\u017eije prost\u0159edky se Sinking Fund. Pokud takto bude postupovat zbyl\u00fdch p\u011bt let do splatnosti dluhopisu, zbude mu na Maturity Date k vyplacen\u00ed pouze 20% vydan\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f. Variant na strukturov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvk\u016f do Sinking Fund a mo\u017enost\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed vyu\u017eit\u00ed takto nashrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f je mnoho. Odd\u011blen\u00ed prost\u0159edk\u016f na svol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti emis\u00ed pomoc\u00ed takto z\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho separ\u00e1tn\u00edho \u00fa\u010dtu \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho t\u0159et\u00ed osobou pak d\u00e1v\u00e1 investorovi v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jistotu, \u017ee obdr\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 prost\u0159edky vlo\u017een\u00e9 do dluhopisu zp\u011bt.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Napsat \u010dl\u00e1nek o dluhopisech tak, aby to byla z\u00e1bava, je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9. Investov\u00e1n\u00ed do cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f s pevn\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem nen\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b tak dynamick\u00e9, jak by si \u201eak\u010dn\u011b\u201c zalo\u017een\u00fd investor p\u0159\u00e1l, nicm\u00e9n\u011b m\u016f\u017ee skr\u00fdvat \u00faskal\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nejsou na prvn\u00ed pohled patrn\u00e1. Je tak jasn\u00e9, \u017ee rozhodnut\u00ed vlo\u017eit sv\u00e9 prost\u0159edky do dluhov\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f mus\u00ed p\u0159edch\u00e1zet alespo\u0148 zevrubn\u00e1 anal\u00fdza, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee odhalit p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 \u00faskal\u00ed takov\u00e9 investice. Rozhodovac\u00ed procesy p\u0159i n\u00e1kupu takov\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f by pak m\u011blo doprov\u00e1zet zamy\u0161len\u00ed, jak\u00e9 c\u00edle svou investic\u00ed sleduji, co od n\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m a nakolik je pro m\u011b vhodn\u00e1. Douf\u00e1m, \u017ee v\u00fd\u0161e napsan\u00e9 \u0159\u00e1dky alespo\u0148 m\u00edrn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bly k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch my\u0161lenkov\u00fdch proces\u016f, spojen\u00fdch s dluhopisov\u00fdm investov\u00e1n\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Analytick\u00fd excel popisovan\u00fd v\u00a0tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku je k\u00a0dispozici v\u00a0diskuzn\u00edm f\u00f3ru ve<\/span> vl\u00e1kn\u011b k\u00a0tomuto \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, obsahuje VBA skript, kter\u00fd lze voln\u011b kop\u00edrovat nebo upravovat podle vlastn\u00edch pot\u0159eb<\/span>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 Koment\u00e1\u0159e a p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky k tomuto \u010dl\u00e1nku pros\u00edm sm\u011brujte do Diskuzn\u00edho f\u00f3ra do tohoto vl\u00e1kna<\/strong><\/span><\/a> :c)<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0hrnci dluhopisov\u00fdch trh\u016f to za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 p\u011bkn\u011b bublat. Pry\u010d jsou doby nev\u00fdznamn\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f \u010di dokonce z\u00e1porn\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, investo\u0159i za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0159it zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti a po dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017een\u00fd segment cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f s\u00a0pevn\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 nab\u00edrat na zaslou\u017een\u00e9 pozornosti. N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159\u00e1dky dal\u0161\u00edho d\u00edlu dluhopisov\u00e9ho seri\u00e1lu pak budou o projasn\u011bn\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f Continue Reading<\/i><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6669,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[60],"tags":[61],"class_list":["post-6668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dluhopisy","tag-dluhopisy"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/main.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8zd8A-1Jy","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6010,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6010","url_meta":{"origin":6668,"position":0},"title":"Dluhopisy \u2013 III.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"14.12.2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0N\u00e1kupem dluhopisu p\u016fj\u010duji pen\u00edze. Nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed definice, kterou by si mohla zaslou\u017eit odpov\u011b\u010f na ot\u00e1zku, co to vlastn\u011b dluhopis je. Emitent dluhopisu \u2013 dlu\u017en\u00edk - vstupuje do pr\u00e1vn\u00edho svazku s v\u011b\u0159itelem (t\u0159eba se mnou), kter\u00fd je zalo\u017een na z\u00e1vazku dlu\u017en\u00edka platit v\u011b\u0159iteli periodick\u00fd \u00farok ve form\u011b kup\u00f3nu a splatit celou p\u016fvodn\u011b\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/main.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/main.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/main.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6439,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6439","url_meta":{"origin":6668,"position":1},"title":"Dluhopisy – X. \u00a0","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"24.6.2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Z\u00edskat z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159ehled o dluhopisov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, pochopit a popsat z\u00e1kladn\u00ed pojmy spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0dluhov\u00fdmi cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry, zamyslet se nad v\u00fdpo\u010dtem v\u00fdnosu dluhopisu nebo prozkoumat mo\u017enost obchodovat tyto cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry u brokera Interactive Brokers bylo, mimo dal\u0161\u00ed drobnosti, p\u0159edm\u011btem p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch text\u016f dluhopisov\u00e9ho seri\u00e1lu. Co se aktu\u00e1ln\u011b na dluhopisov\u00fdch trz\u00edch d\u011bje a\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/main.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/main.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/main.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6292,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6292","url_meta":{"origin":6668,"position":2},"title":"Dluhopisy – VIII.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"10.4.2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Lep\u0161\u00ed okam\u017eik pro naps\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku jsem si ani nemohl p\u0159\u00e1t. Lehk\u00e9 n\u00e1znaky bankovn\u00ed krize vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z podivn\u00e9 likvidity speci\u00e1ln\u00edch bankovn\u00edch dom\u016f opep\u0159en\u00e9 koment\u00e1\u0159i jejich v\u00edce \u010di m\u00e9n\u011b schopn\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed na p\u0159elomu m\u011bs\u00edce b\u0159ezna a dubna 2023 skv\u011bl\u00fd r\u00e1mec pro t\u00e9ma tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku. Jakou roli v t\u00e9to \u0161lamastyce\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/F1.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/F1.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/F1.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6234,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6234","url_meta":{"origin":6668,"position":3},"title":"Dluhopisy \u2013 VII.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"22.3.2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Vypad\u00e1 to doposud, jakoby obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0dluhopisy bylo bezpe\u010dnou proch\u00e1zkou les\u00edkem, sta\u010d\u00ed m\u00edt pouze p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 oble\u010den\u00ed, hezk\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed a dobrou n\u00e1ladu a pocit celkov\u00e9ho \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed m\u011b pot\u00e9 nem\u016f\u017ee minout. Stejn\u011b jako u jin\u00fdch obchodovan\u00fdch t\u0159\u00edd aktiv plat\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fd\u0161e podstupovan\u00e9ho rizika je odm\u011b\u0148ov\u00e1na adekv\u00e1tn\u00ed porc\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9ho profitu, je takto formulovan\u00e1\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/F2.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/F2.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/F2.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7042,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=7042","url_meta":{"origin":6668,"position":4},"title":"Dluhopisy \u2013 XVII.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"21.3.2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0 Pocit \u00fanavy ze slo\u017eitosti p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho \u010dl\u00e1nku s popisem derivac\u00ed cenov\u00e9 funkce kup\u00f3nov\u00e9ho dluhopisu a mo\u017en\u00e9 frustrace z nemo\u017enosti aplikovat zji\u0161t\u011bnou dolarovou hodnotu jednoho bazick\u00e9ho bodu na stotis\u00edcov\u00e9 dluhopisov\u00e9 portfolio s hed\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm pomoc\u00ed stotis\u00edcov\u00e9ho dluhopisov\u00e9ho futures, proto\u017ee t\u011bchto sto tis\u00edc dolar\u016f prost\u011b nem\u00e1m, by mohly vykompenzovat n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159\u00e1dky \u010dl\u00e1nku, kter\u00e9\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Y1.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Y1.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Y1.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6047,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6047","url_meta":{"origin":6668,"position":5},"title":"Dluhopisy \u2013 IV.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"24.12.2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0 Kupuji dluhopis. Plat\u00edm za n\u011bj n\u011bjakou cenu a m\u00e1m od n\u011bj n\u011bjak\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na co se t\u00fd\u010de finan\u010dn\u00edho potenci\u00e1lu, kter\u00fd mi m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st. Pokud nejsem \u00fapln\u00fd ignorant a nakupuji akcie n\u011bjak\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, v\u017edy m\u00e1m n\u011bjakou, alespo\u0148 mlhavou p\u0159edstavu nebo d\u016fvod, pro\u010d jsem u\u010dinil rozhodnut\u00ed do takov\u00e9ho obchodu vstoupit. Mohu\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/WMT1.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/WMT1.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/WMT1.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/WMT1.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6668"}],"version-history":[{"count":32,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6668\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7323,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6668\/revisions\/7323"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}