{"id":6234,"date":"2023-03-22T16:37:42","date_gmt":"2023-03-22T14:37:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6234"},"modified":"2024-08-18T16:45:54","modified_gmt":"2024-08-18T14:45:54","slug":"dluhopisy-vii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6234","title":{"rendered":"Dluhopisy \u2013 VII."},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 Vypad\u00e1 to doposud, jakoby obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0dluhopisy bylo bezpe\u010dnou proch\u00e1zkou les\u00edkem, sta\u010d\u00ed m\u00edt pouze p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 oble\u010den\u00ed, hezk\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed a dobrou n\u00e1ladu a pocit celkov\u00e9ho \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed m\u011b pot\u00e9 nem\u016f\u017ee minout. Stejn\u011b jako u jin\u00fdch obchodovan\u00fdch t\u0159\u00edd aktiv plat\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fd\u0161e podstupovan\u00e9ho rizika je odm\u011b\u0148ov\u00e1na adekv\u00e1tn\u00ed porc\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9ho profitu, je takto formulovan\u00e1 kombinace riziko\/profit platn\u00e1 tak\u00e9 pro obchody s\u00a0cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry s\u00a0pevn\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem – dluhopisy. N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u011bty v\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku tak budou o mo\u017en\u00fdch rizic\u00edch, kter\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed dluhopis\u016f m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Riziko zm\u011bny \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby\u00a0<\/strong><\/span>(Interest-Rate Risk)<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u201erizikovou polo\u017ekou\u201c p\u0159i dr\u017een\u00ed dluhopis\u016f je jeho cenov\u00e1 reakce na zm\u011bnu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na trz\u00edch. Ka\u017ed\u00fd investor do dluhopis\u016f by si m\u011bl b\u00fdt v\u011bdom t\u00e9to z\u00e1vislosti a po\u010d\u00edtat s n\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na pokud se rozhodne p\u0159istoupit k obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed dluhopis\u016f s n\u011bjak\u00fdm v\u00fdrazn\u011b spekulativn\u00edm z\u00e1m\u011brem. P\u0159esto\u017ee jsem tuto z\u00e1vislost zm\u011bny hodnoty \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby na cen\u011b investice ji\u017e popisoval v \u010dl\u00e1nku Dluhopisy \u2013 II.<\/a><\/span><\/strong>, mohu si pro vysv\u011btlen\u00ed t\u00e9to z\u00e1vislosti vz\u00edt velmi jednoduch\u00fd praktick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad. Nakoupil jsem za 1000 USD p\u011btilet\u00fd korpor\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopis firmy Traktory Inc. s kup\u00f3nem 3% p.a. T\u0159\u00edprocentn\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00ed benefit bude v danou chv\u00edli odpov\u00eddat aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m, budu spokojen, \u017ee m\u00e1 utracen\u00e1 tis\u00edcovka dolar\u016f je vhodn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem zhodnocov\u00e1na. Na trz\u00edch ov\u0161em nastane obrat a dojde ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na 5% p.a.. Spole\u010dnost Traktory Inc. vyd\u00e1v\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed dluhopisy ov\u0161em nyn\u00ed ji\u017e s kup\u00f3nem 5% p.a., mus\u00ed toti\u017e reagovat na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed situaci na trz\u00edch a zejm\u00e9na o\u010dek\u00e1vat, aby byl o tyto nov\u00e9 jej\u00ed dluhopisy z\u00e1jem mezi investi\u010dn\u00ed ve\u0159ejnost\u00ed, tato by ve st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed situaci pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nem\u011bla z\u00e1jem o dluhopisy s kup\u00f3nem ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm o cel\u00e1 dv\u011b procenta. Proto\u017ee dr\u017e\u00edm p\u016fvodn\u00ed dluhopis s kup\u00f3nem 3% p.a., cht\u011bl bych jej prodat a nakoupit si dluhopisy z nov\u00e9 emise s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nem. Kdo si ale ode m\u011b koup\u00ed ty star\u00e9 s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nem, kdy\u017e za n\u011bj budu po\u017eadovat p\u016fvodn\u00ed cenu 1.000 USD? Patrn\u011b nikdo, proto\u017ee na trhu jsou dluhopisy stejn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, ale s daleko vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdnosem, o m\u00e9 dluhopisy za nab\u00edzenou cenu 1.000 USD a 3% v\u00fdnosem nebude zcela jist\u011b z\u00e1jem, budu tedy muset p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9mu kupci m\u00e9ho p\u016fvodn\u00edho dluhopisu kompenzovat rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosu slevou z hodnoty nab\u00edzen\u00e9ho „star\u0161\u00edho“ dluhopisu. Jeho cena tedy mus\u00ed pat\u0159i\u010dn\u011b klesnout<\/strong>, aby odr\u00e1\u017eela aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdnos<\/strong> odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed situaci na trz\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Tato situace zm\u011bny \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na trz\u00edch pak vn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed do dr\u017een\u00ed dluhopis\u016f pr\u00e1v\u011b risk spojen\u00fd s poklesem ceny dr\u017een\u00e9ho dluhopisu pr\u00e1v\u011b d\u00edky fluktuaci \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry. Pokud bych tedy sv\u016fj dluhopis prodal p\u0159ed jeho splatnost\u00ed v situaci r\u016fstu \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry na trz\u00edch, utr\u017e\u00edm ztr\u00e1tu z poklesu jeho hodnoty, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b bych jej prodal za cenu ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e byla jeho po\u0159izovac\u00ed cena.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 V \u010dl\u00e1nku Dluhopisy \u2013 V.<\/a><\/strong><\/span> jsem popisoval zcela konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed n\u00e1kup p\u011btilet\u00e9ho dluhopisu spole\u010dnosti Ford na sv\u016fj obchodn\u00ed \u00fa\u010det. 25.1.2023 jsem po\u0159\u00eddil za 5000 USD dluhopisy s kup\u00f3nem 6.625 % p.a. a za tyto dluhopisy s Face Value 1.000 USD jsem zaplatil 1.048,50 USD za ka\u017ed\u00fd z nich. Tento investi\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroj jsem nakupoval za situace, kdy p\u011btilet\u00fd americk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopis se splatnost\u00ed stejnou jako jsou moje dluhopisy Ford vykazoval v\u00fdnos 3.54% p.a.. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je situace v\u00fdvoje \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby tohoto vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhopisu od doby po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed m\u00e9 investice \u2013 p\u011btilet\u00e9ho dluhopisu Ford do okam\u017eiku, kdy p\u00ed\u0161u tento \u010dl\u00e1nek, \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba nyn\u00ed \u010din\u00ed 3.68% p.a.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P\u011btilet\u00fd americk\u00fd vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopis se stejnou dobou do splatnosti mohu pova\u017eovat za benchmark pro mou investici do m\u00e9ho p\u011btilet\u00e9ho dluhopisu Ford a je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba pro\u0161la od po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed m\u00e9 investice k dne\u0161n\u00edmu dni celkem slu\u0161n\u00fdm v\u00fdvojem. Vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed zm\u011bny dluhopisov\u00e9 sazby se ve sv\u011bt\u011b obchod\u016f s \u00faroky a dluhov\u00fdmi n\u00e1stroji vyjad\u0159uje v tzv. bazick\u00fdch bodech<\/strong> (basis points, bps). Jeden bazick\u00fd bod<\/strong> p\u0159edstavuje setinu procenta<\/strong>, tedy je to jeden cel\u00fd procentn\u00ed bod rozsekan\u00fd na 100 stejn\u00fdch kousk\u016f, a pokud tedy hodnota \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby u p\u011btilet\u00fdch americk\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f vzrostla ze 3.54 % p.a. na 3.68% p.a., do\u0161lo k r\u016fstu \u00farok\u016f o +14 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f (bps). Pohyb z 354 bps (3.54%) na \u00farove\u0148 368 bps (3.68%) tak p\u0159edstavuje n\u00e1r\u016fst o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 +4%. Co s t\u00edmto pohybem (r\u016fstem) \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ud\u011blal v\u00fdnos u m\u00e9ho dluhopisu je patrn\u00e9 na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0 \u00a0Je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00fdnos tohoto dluhopisu se zv\u00fd\u0161il, a to tak, \u017ee odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed zejm\u00e9na n\u00e1r\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na trz\u00edch dluhopis\u016f s obdobnou splatnost\u00ed a obdobnou kvalitou. Je jist\u00e9, \u017ee do v\u00fdnosu dluhopisu se prom\u00edtaj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed rizika spojen\u00e1 s jeho dr\u017een\u00edm, u velmi bonitn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f je ale vliv referen\u010dn\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na jeho v\u00fdnos z\u00e1sadn\u00ed. Pokud tedy u dluhopisu roste jeho v\u00fdnos, mus\u00ed klesat jeho cena. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je tento vliv zn\u00e1zorn\u011bn na cenov\u00e9m grafu m\u00e9ho dluhopisu Ford.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Pokud jsem dluhopis kupoval p\u0159i ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch tr\u017en\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch dne 25.1.2023 za 104,85% jeho Face Value, mohu z grafu vypozorovat, \u017ee jeho aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cena by se m\u011bla pohybovat n\u011bkde nad 100% jeho Face Value, tedy t\u011bsn\u011bji nad hladinou 1.000 USD. Pohledem do m\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed platformy mohu konstatovat dopady tohoto efektu:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cena dluhopisu k\u00a0prodeji (Bid) by p\u0159edstavovala \u010d\u00e1stku 1.009 USD<\/strong> (2)<\/strong><\/span>. Po\u0159izovac\u00ed hodnota na \u00farovni 1048.50 USD (1)<\/span><\/strong> nyn\u00ed zp\u016fsobuje, \u017ee m\u016fj dluhopis tak ztr\u00e1c\u00ed cca -40 USD na ka\u017ed\u00e9m z\u00a0nich, p\u0159i investovan\u00fdch 5.000 USD je tak mo\u017en\u00e9 pozorovat kapit\u00e1lovou ztr\u00e1tu ve v\u00fd\u0161i -204 USD (3)<\/span><\/strong> na t\u00e9to m\u00e9 investici. Pokud bych se tedy rozhodl dluhopis prodat, musel bych po\u010d\u00edtat, \u017ee nebudu schopen obdr\u017eet p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stku vynalo\u017eenou na jeho po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Co si mohu z\u00a0tohoto vlastn\u011b vz\u00edt pro svou obchodn\u00ed praxi? N\u00e1kup dluhopisu s\u00a0odhodl\u00e1n\u00edm dr\u017eet jej do splatnosti nevy\u017eaduje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed \u00favahy o vztahu ceny a v\u00fdnosu, proto\u017ee m\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed je p\u0159i vynalo\u017een\u00fdch n\u00e1kladech na n\u00e1kup dluhopisu obdr\u017eet u splatnosti zp\u011bt Face Value dluhopisu a za dobu trv\u00e1n\u00ed dluhopisu akumulovat vyzna\u010den\u00fd kup\u00f3n. Pokud se takto rozhodnu pro zafixov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9ho slu\u0161n\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu, m\u011bl bych tak u dluhopisu s\u00a0del\u0161\u00ed dobou splatnosti volit takovou situaci na trz\u00edch, kdy jsou aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, l\u00e9pe \u0159e\u010deno, takov\u00e9, kter\u00e9 jsem si pro m\u016fj dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed horizont vyty\u010dil. Pokud nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1m s\u00a0dr\u017een\u00edm dluhopisu do splatnosti, ale budu cht\u00edt s\u00a0dluhopisem nakl\u00e1dat za jeho \u017eivota, m\u016f\u017ee m\u011b pak zasko\u010dit nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e1 situace, kdy p\u0159i dal\u0161\u00edm r\u016fstu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb budu p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eet poklesu ceny m\u00e9ho dluhopisu na m\u00e9m obchodn\u00edm \u00fa\u010dtu. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, v\u00a0opa\u010dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, p\u0159i spekulativn\u00edm po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dluhopisov\u00e9 investice a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9m poklesu \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby mohu realizovat profit na r\u016fstu ceny mnou nakoupen\u00e9ho dluhopisu p\u0159i vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazb\u00e1ch. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Podrobn\u011bji se budu cht\u00edt v\u011bnovat vztahu v\u00fdnosu a ceny dluhopis\u016f a pojmu durace dluhopisu v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku t\u00e9to minis\u00e9rie o dluhopisech. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Kreditn\u00ed riziko (Credit Risk)<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00e1kup korpor\u00e1tn\u00edho nebo municip\u00e1ln\u00edho dluhopisu je spojen s rizikem, \u017ee jeho emitent nedostoj\u00ed sv\u00e9mu z\u00e1vazku vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edho z p\u0159ijat\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky, tedy p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm platit periodick\u00e9 platby vyzna\u010den\u00e9ho \u00faroku nebo splacen\u00ed jmenovit\u00e9 hodnoty dluhopisu u maturity. Toto riziko postr\u00e1daj\u00ed americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopisy nebo dluhopisy n\u011bkter\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch agentur, kde je pln\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1vazk\u016f s vydan\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f garantov\u00e1na americkou vl\u00e1dou nebo p\u0159enesen\u011b p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdmi vl\u00e1dn\u00edmi agenturami. Ka\u017ed\u00fd jin\u00fd dluhopis m\u00e1 pak v sob\u011b ukryto riziko mo\u017en\u00e9ho kreditn\u00edho selh\u00e1n\u00ed. Jak jej odhadnout je pro b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho drobn\u00e9ho investora zna\u010dn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 a vy\u017eadovalo by p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm dokonalou znalost emitenta, zejm\u00e9na pozn\u00e1n\u00ed jeho finan\u010dn\u00ed kondice a schopnost\u00ed jeho managementu sou\u010dasn\u011b s vlastn\u00edm odhadem o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm v\u00fdvoje trh\u016f, na kter\u00fdch se emitent pohybuje. Tyto znalosti a projekce (do kter\u00fdch m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdrazn\u011b zas\u00e1hnout vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed moc, geopolitick\u00e9 okolnosti nebo jin\u00e9 nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti) je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9 s n\u011bjakou vysoce p\u0159ijatelnou m\u00edrou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bt, existence kreditn\u00edho rizika je tak neodd\u011blitelnou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed t\u011bchto dluhopisov\u00fdch obchod\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 \u0158e\u0161en\u00edm, kter\u00e9 nahrazuje anal\u00fdzu emitenta potencion\u00e1ln\u00edm investorem, je vyu\u017eit\u00ed ji\u017e proveden\u00e9ho vyhodnocen\u00ed kreditn\u00edho rizika emitenta zavedenou ratingovou agenturou. Pro\u010d se nam\u00e1hat s vlastn\u00ed anal\u00fdzou finan\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fdkaz\u016f (nemus\u00edm jim nakonec ani rozum\u011bt), posuzov\u00e1n\u00edm obchodn\u00edho modelu spole\u010dnosti nebo z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm informac\u00ed o zodpov\u011bdnosti vedouc\u00edch pracovn\u00edk\u016f firmy, kdy\u017e tyto informace vyhodnocuj\u00ed renomovan\u00e9 ratingov\u00e9 agentury. Proto\u017ee popisuji americk\u00e9 dluhopisov\u00e9 trhy, zam\u011b\u0159\u00edm se americk\u00e9 ratingov\u00e9 agentury<\/strong>. Americk\u00e1 komise pro cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry (SEC) vede seznam ratingov\u00fdch agentur<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, kter\u00e9 jsou registrov\u00e1ny jako NRSROs (Nationaly Recognized Statistical Rating Organization), u kter\u00fdch se lze spolehnout na to, \u017ee p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b dokonale prozkoumaly kondici emitent\u016f a ohodnotily je n\u011bjak\u00fdm stupn\u011bm ratingu. Proto\u017ee zna\u010dnou \u010d\u00e1st tohoto ratingov\u00e9ho byznysu pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed t\u0159i ratingov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, jsou jejich v\u00fdsledky nej\u010dast\u011bji citovan\u00e9 a jsou tak\u00e9 odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem nejpopul\u00e1rn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. S&P Global Ratings<\/strong>, Fitch Ratings, Inc.<\/strong> a Moody\u2019s Investor Service, Inc.<\/strong> jsou l\u00eddry t\u011bchto ratingov\u00fdch agentur a jejich zp\u016fsoby ocen\u011bn\u00ed kredibility emitenta jsou rozlo\u017eeny do \u0161k\u00e1l, kter\u00e9 nab\u00edz\u00ed n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e1 tabulka.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Ka\u017ed\u00e1 kvalitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dluhopisov\u00e1 emise by pak m\u011bla m\u00edt n\u011bkter\u00fd z rating\u016f nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch se ve v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 tabulce a m\u011bla by znamenat n\u00e1zor ratingov\u00e9 agentury na budouc\u00ed osud t\u00e9to dluhopisov\u00e9 emise, tento vze\u0161el pr\u00e1v\u011b a zejm\u00e9na z kreditn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9 n\u011bkterou z t\u011bchto agentur. Za pozornost stoj\u00ed pro prvotn\u00ed sezn\u00e1men\u00ed s tabulkou jej\u00ed rozd\u011blen\u00ed na dv\u011b \u010d\u00e1sti \u010dervenou linkou. Dluhopisy, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed rating vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed<\/strong> ne\u017e Baa3<\/strong> podle Moody\u2019s<\/strong> nebo vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e BBB-<\/strong> podle S&P Global Rating<\/strong> a Fitch<\/strong> jsou ozna\u010dov\u00e1ny za Investment-grade <\/strong>dluhopisy, tedy dluhopisy s\u00a0velmi malou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed defaultu emitenta, tedy jeho neschopnosti spl\u00e1cet povinnost vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0emise dluhopis\u016f. V\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ratingy ozna\u010duj\u00ed dluhopisov\u00e9 emise jako Non-investment grade<\/strong> dluhopisy, High-yield bonds nebo Junk bonds, tedy dluhopisy, u kter\u00fdch mohu \u010dekat, \u017ee jejich emitent m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt s\u00a0pln\u011bn\u00edm z\u00e1vazk\u016f vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch z\u00a0emitov\u00e1n\u00ed dluhopis\u016f probl\u00e9m. Mohu tak nap\u0159\u00edklad vyhodnotit rating m\u00e9ho p\u011btilet\u00e9ho dluhopisu spole\u010dnosti Ford, kter\u00fd m\u00e1m na sv\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu a zjistit, do jak\u00e9 kategorie spad\u00e1:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Agentura Moody\u2019s ud\u011blila t\u00e9to emisi rating Ba2 a agentura S&P Global Rating ud\u011blila rating BB+. Oba tyto ratingy spadaj\u00ed t\u011bsn\u011b pod d\u011bl\u00edc\u00ed \u010d\u00e1ru rozd\u011bluj\u00edc\u00ed spolehliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dluhopisy od rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch, mohu tak o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee automobilka Ford by mohla v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed m\u00edt n\u011bjak\u00e9 probl\u00e9my s platbou povinnost\u00ed vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch z nakoupen\u00e9ho dluhopisu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 V popise ratingu podle v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho obr\u00e1zku mohu vid\u011bt, \u017ee je m\u016fj dluhopis Ford a dluhopisy takto stejn\u00fdch rating\u016f jsou ozna\u010deny jako Non-investment grade a jako spekulativn\u00ed. Proto\u017ee jsem investor s vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed akceptac\u00ed rizika, tento rating takto p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1m a jsem si v\u011bdom jeho p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f, patrn\u011b by se tento dluhopis nestal nosnou investic\u00ed m\u00e9ho dluhopisov\u00e9ho portfolia, ale tvo\u0159il by jeho rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Jak s\u00a0ratingem nalo\u017eit a jak jej interpretovat? V\u00fd\u0161e kreditn\u00edho rizika, tedy rizika defaultu emitenta, se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b prom\u00edt\u00e1 do ceny dluhopisu, resp. do jeho v\u00fdnosu. Nyn\u00ed ji\u017e v\u00edm, \u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos znamen\u00e1 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed cenu dluhopisu a p\u0159i jeho po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nemohu o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee cena dluhopisu bude nem\u011bnn\u00e1, ale bude z\u00e1viset mimo jin\u00e9 na pohybu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na trz\u00edch. Kreditn\u00ed riziko se prom\u00edt\u00e1 do v\u00fdnosu dluhopisu obdobn\u011b, pokud jsem ochoten p\u0159ijmout riziko vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9ho budouc\u00edho zav\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed emitenta, mus\u00edm si toto riziko nechat tak\u00e9 zaplatit. Jak mohu takov\u00e9 \u201epr\u00e9miov\u00e9 body\u201c vyhodnotit a n\u011bjak obecn\u011b kvantifikovat je mo\u017en\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00edm s\u00a0jin\u00fdmi druhy dluhopis\u016f s\u00a0obdobnou splatnost\u00ed. M\u016fj spekulativn\u00ed p\u011btilet\u00fd dluhopis Ford m\u00e1 rating agentury S&P Global Ratings na \u00farovni BB+. Mohu si k\u00a0porovn\u00e1n\u00ed vybrat jin\u00fd korpor\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopis se stejnou dobou splatnosti, ale s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm ratingem, nap\u0159\u00edklad dluhopis PepsiCo Inc.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Dluhopis PepsiCo splatn\u00fd 18.2.2028 m\u00e1 rating agentury S&P Global Ratings na \u00farovni A+, agentura Moody’s jej ohodnotila ozna\u010den\u00edm A1. Pohledem do tabulky se \u0161k\u00e1lou ratingov\u00fdch ozna\u010den\u00ed mohu zjistit, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o Investment-grade dluhopis, tedy vysoce kvalitn\u00ed emisi. Proto\u017ee m\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 identickou dobu splatnosti (18.2.2028), mohu jeho v\u00fdnosov\u00e9 parametry pom\u011b\u0159it s parametry m\u00e9ho dluhopisu Ford se splatnost\u00ed 15.2.2028 a toto cel\u00e9 porovnat s benchmarkov\u00fdm americk\u00fdm vl\u00e1dn\u00edm dluhopisem US-T Notes se splatnost\u00ed tak\u00e9 15.2.2028. V\u00fdsledek je na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee:<\/span><\/p>\n

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Spread<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Definici v\u00fdnosu dluhopisu pak mohu p\u0159i pohledu na tento obr\u00e1zek vyj\u00e1d\u0159it slo\u017eeninou v\u00fdnosu definovanou dluhopisem se stejnou splatnost\u00ed, kter\u00fd nenese \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 kreditn\u00ed riziko (US-T) a v\u00fdnosem, kter\u00fd definuje m\u00edru kreditn\u00edho rizika dluhopisu, kter\u00fd s\u00a0bezrizikov\u00fdm dluhopisem porovn\u00e1v\u00e1m. Tento rozd\u00edl je pojmenov\u00e1n jako \u201ecredit spread\u201c<\/strong> a definuje zejm\u00e9na m\u00edru kreditn\u00edho rizika. Mohu pak v obr\u00e1zku pozorovat, \u017ee bezrizikov\u00fd v\u00fdnos by p\u0159edstavovalo po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed US-T Notes<\/strong> se splatnost\u00ed 15.2.2028<\/strong> s\u00a0v\u00fdnosem (Ask Yield) ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3.590% p.a. (1)<\/span><\/strong>. Kreditn\u00ed riziko po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dluhopisu PepsiCo<\/strong> se splatnost\u00ed 18.2.2028 <\/strong>p\u0159edstavuje pr\u00e9mii vyj\u00e1d\u0159enou hodnotou spreadu (4.335% – 3.590%) ve v\u00fd\u0161i +0.745%, tedy +74.5 bps (2)<\/span><\/strong>. Takto je u t\u00e9to emise dluhopis\u016f PepsiCo odm\u011bn\u011bn investor za podstoupen\u00e9 riziko z\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9ho defaultu emitenta, kter\u00fd byl ratingem ozna\u010den jako A+. Dluhopis Ford<\/strong> se splatnost\u00ed 15.2.2028 <\/strong>s\u00a0ratingem BB+ by pak investorovi p\u0159inesl pr\u00e9mii ze spreadu ve v\u00fd\u0161i (6.316% – 3.590%) zna\u010dn\u00fdch +2.726%, tedy +272.60 bps (3)<\/span><\/strong>, takto je trhem nacen\u011bno riziko platebn\u00edch schopnost\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Ford, kter\u00e9 by investor podstoupil, kdyby nyn\u00ed nakoupil tyto spekulativn\u00ed dluhopisy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 \u0160\u00ed\u0159ka a v\u00fdvoj spreadu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro investory zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtkem zdrav\u00ed spole\u010dnosti, do kter\u00e9 by mohl cht\u00edt investovat, nap\u0159\u00edklad n\u00e1kupem jejich akci\u00ed. Mohu si nyn\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad odmyslet zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed fundament\u00e1ln\u00edch zpr\u00e1v konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti, analyzov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich finan\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fdkaz\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edch ukazatel\u016f a zam\u011b\u0159it se pouze na \u0161\u00ed\u0159ku spreadu na emis\u00edch jejich dluhopis\u016f a jejich historick\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje. Mohu pak vyhodnocovat, jestli dluhopisov\u00ed investo\u0159i v\u00a0\u010dase p\u0159est\u00e1vaj\u00ed spole\u010dnosti d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat, co\u017e se m\u016f\u017ee projevovat dynamick\u00fdm roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00edm spreadu nebo naopak, potvrzov\u00e1n\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed zdrav\u00ed emitenta bude zp\u016fsobovat zu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed nebo nem\u011bnnost \u0161\u00ed\u0159ky spreadu. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je porovn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdvoje v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopisu US-T Notes se splatnost\u00ed 15.2.2028, tedy benchmarku pro dluhopisy se splatnost\u00ed v\u00a0\u00fanoru na p\u011bt let (2028) a dluhopisu spole\u010dnosti PepsiCo se stejnou splatnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Spread mezi ob\u011bma v\u00fdnosy je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 konstantn\u00ed a reprezentuje popisovan\u00e9, \u017ee dluhopisy s\u00a0vysok\u00fdm ratingem budou m\u00edt mal\u00fd a nem\u011bnn\u00fd spread, pokud se se spole\u010dnost\u00ed emitenta nebude d\u00edt n\u011bco v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho. Dluhopis PepsiCo nab\u00edz\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos, ne\u017e by p\u0159inesla investice do vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhopisu, pokles\/r\u016fst tohoto vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhopisu je pak n\u00e1sledov\u00e1n adekv\u00e1tn\u00edm pohybem na kvalitn\u00edm korpor\u00e1tn\u00edm dluhopisu. Na dal\u0161\u00edm obr\u00e1zku je srovn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdnosu stejn\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dn\u00edho p\u011btilet\u00e9ho dluhopisu s\u00a0p\u011btilet\u00fdm dluhopisem spole\u010dnosti RCL<\/strong> (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.), tato spole\u010dnost m\u00e1 rating ud\u011blen\u00fd S&P Global Ratings na \u00farovni B, v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b n\u00e1kup tohoto dluhopisu by se tak jednalo o spekulativn\u00ed rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dluhopisovou investici.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0 Spread v\u00fdnos\u016f v\u00a0ro\u010dn\u00edm srovn\u00e1vac\u00edm grafu nenese ji\u017e prvky t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dokonal\u00e9 korelace s\u00a0benchmarkem pozorovan\u00e9m u dluhopis\u016f s\u00a0vysok\u00fdm ratingem, ale v\u00fdnos odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed n\u00e1zor investor\u016f na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed kvalitu emitenta. Mohu pak vypozorovat, \u017ee za posledn\u00ed rok se spread pohyboval mezi +9% a\u017e +5%, co\u017e je velmi slu\u0161n\u00e9 rozp\u011bt\u00ed. Mohu pak v\u00a0grafu spreadu vyzna\u010dit p\u00edsmeny mezn\u00ed situace a tyto porovnat s\u00a0cenov\u00fdm grafem za pozorovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee r\u016fst v\u00fdnos\u016f nab\u00fdv\u00e1 extr\u00e9mu v\u00a0okam\u017eic\u00edch, kdy se titulu neda\u0159\u00ed a vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed lok\u00e1ln\u00ed dna (modr\u00e1 p\u00edsmena A, B, C a E), r\u016fst ceny akci\u00ed emitenta je pak doprov\u00e1zen poklesy ceny v\u00fdnos\u016f j\u00edm emitovan\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f (zelen\u00e9 p\u00edsmeno D). Souvislost mezi obdob\u00edmi d\u016fv\u011bry a ned\u016fv\u011bry ve spole\u010dnost provozuj\u00edc\u00ed zaoce\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00fdletn\u00ed plavby je tak patrn\u00e1 na prvn\u00ed pohled pr\u00e1v\u011b na obou investi\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u00edch \u2013 akci\u00edch i dluhopisech. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 Margin<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Investice do dluhov\u00e9ho cenn\u00e9ho pap\u00edru p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed z pohledu rizika tak\u00e9 odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed reakci brokera, kter\u00fd kreditn\u00ed riziko zohled\u0148uje v\u00fd\u0161\u00ed blokovan\u00e9ho marginu souvisej\u00edc\u00edho s po\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm dluhopisu. Nebude asi nic podivn\u00e9ho na p\u0159\u00edstupu, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko<\/strong> t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed marginov\u00e9 po\u017eadavky<\/strong>. Bezrizikov\u00e9 americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopisy jsou zat\u00ed\u017eeny minim\u00e1ln\u00edm marginem ve v\u00fd\u0161i jednotek procent z\u00a0tr\u017en\u00ed hodnoty dluhopisu, tento po\u017eadavek je u m\u00e9ho brokera Interactive Brokers strukturov\u00e1n n\u00e1sledovn\u011b:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Dluhopis se splatnost\u00ed do p\u016fl roku je zat\u00ed\u017een marginem ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1% jeho aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed ceny, zat\u00edmco dvacetilet\u00fd dluhopis zablokuje na m\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu 9% jeho skute\u010dn\u00e9 tr\u017en\u00ed ceny. Pro korpor\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy je ale situace jin\u00e1 a odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed riziko spojen\u00e9 s kolapsem platebn\u00edch schopnost\u00ed emitenta. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je patrn\u00e1 velikost po\u017eadavku na margin u kvalitn\u00edho dluhopisu PepsiCo:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Minim\u00e1ln\u00ed investice je ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2 ks dluhopisu s Face Value 2000 USD. Mohu pak pozorovat, \u017ee pro n\u00e1kup dvou dluhopis\u016f s ratingem A+ by p\u0159edstavovalo Maintenance Margin ve v\u00fd\u0161i 339 USD. Mohu pak srovnat tento marginov\u00fd po\u017eadavek s jeho p\u0159\u00edpadnou v\u00fd\u0161\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee bych uva\u017eoval o n\u00e1kupu stejn\u00e9ho objemu dluhopisu s podobnou splatnost\u00ed, ov\u0161em s ratingem B, kter\u00fd n\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad dluhopisu spole\u010dnosti RCL.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Dluhopis s\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm ratingem je zat\u00ed\u017een vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm marginov\u00fdm po\u017eadavkem, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b ve v\u00fd\u0161i 588 USD pro pot\u0159eby Maintenence Margin, musel bych tak po\u010d\u00edtat se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm marginov\u00e9ho po\u017eadavku t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o polovinu ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0dluhopisem PepsiCo s\u00a0ratingem A+.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bankrot emitenta<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Nepln\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1vazk\u016f dlu\u017en\u00edka (emitenta dluhopis\u016f) m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k\u00a0jeho \u00fapadku. Americk\u00fd z\u00e1kon o \u00fapadku (Banruptcy Act) je sestaven z\u00a0n\u011bkolika odd\u00edl\u016f (Chapters), ka\u017ed\u00fd odd\u00edl \u0159e\u0161\u00ed specifick\u00fd typ bankrotu. Nejvyu\u017e\u00edvan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed bankrotu likvidac\u00ed \u00a0(Chapter 7)<\/strong> a reorganizac\u00ed (Chapter 11)<\/strong>. Likvidace (Chapter 7) znamen\u00e1 rozprodej majetku spole\u010dnosti a vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011b\u0159itel\u016f spole\u010dnosti z\u00a0v\u00fdt\u011b\u017eku tohoto rozprodeje, likvidovan\u00e1 spole\u010dnost zanikne. Reorganizace (Chapter 11) znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jej\u00edm proveden\u00edm vznik\u00e1 nov\u00e1 spole\u010dnost, v\u011b\u0159itel\u00e9 pak mohou obdr\u017eet nap\u0159\u00edklad vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch pohled\u00e1vek v\u00a0pen\u011bz\u00edch nebo v\u00a0akci\u00edch n\u00e1stupnick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti nebo v\u00a0kombinaci oboj\u00edho, z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na reorganiza\u010dn\u00edm pl\u00e1nu, kter\u00fd je v\u011b\u0159itel\u016fm p\u0159edlo\u017een. V\u00a0obou p\u0159\u00edpadech je pak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 m\u00edt v\u00a0patrnosti, \u017ee jako investor do dluhopisu spole\u010dnosti v\u00a0\u00fapadku m\u00e1m pohled\u00e1vku v\u016f\u010di tomuto dlu\u017en\u00edkovi a mus\u00edm se o tuto pohled\u00e1vku v\u00a0r\u00e1mci bankrotu tak\u00e9 postarat (do \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed o bankrotu ji n\u00e1le\u017eit\u011b p\u0159ihl\u00e1sit). Je proto d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 v\u011bd\u011bt, jak\u00e9ho je m\u00e1 pohled\u00e1vka vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0dluhopisu druhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Senior secured debt<\/strong> \u2013 pohled\u00e1vka tohoto typu je zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1 n\u011bjak\u00fdm majetkem dlu\u017en\u00edka. Typicky nemovitostmi spole\u010dnost\u00ed, nemovitostmi vlastn\u00edk\u016f spole\u010dnosti, cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry v dr\u017een\u00ed spole\u010dnosti nebo jejich vlastn\u00edk\u016f, stroji a za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm, licencemi, patenty, pohled\u00e1vkami za dlu\u017en\u00edky spole\u010dnosti a dal\u0161\u00edmi v\u0161emo\u017en\u00fdmi aktivy, kter\u00e1 mohou b\u00fdt p\u0159edm\u011btem zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. Plat\u00ed pak, \u017ee pokud je cenn\u00fd pap\u00edr takto zaji\u0161t\u011bn, v\u00fdt\u011b\u017eek z jeho zpen\u011b\u017een\u00ed slou\u017e\u00ed k uspokojen\u00ed pohled\u00e1vek takto zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch v\u011b\u0159itel\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Senior a junior usecured debt<\/strong> \u2013 pohled\u00e1vky, kter\u00e9 nejsou zaji\u0161t\u011bny konkr\u00e9tn\u011b specifikovan\u00fdmi aktivy. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b uspokojov\u00e1n\u00ed pohled\u00e1vek v \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed o bankrotu stoj\u00ed seniorn\u00ed pohled\u00e1vky nad juniorn\u00edmi pohled\u00e1vkami, budou tedy v rozvrhu uspokojeny nejd\u0159\u00edve pohled\u00e1vky p\u0159ipadaj\u00edc\u00ed na Senior unsecured debt a pokud n\u011bco zbyde, bude zbyl\u00fd v\u00fdt\u011b\u017eek rozd\u011blen mezi juniorn\u00ed pohled\u00e1vky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Mohu pak prozkoumat nap\u0159\u00edklad dluhopis spole\u010dnosti PepsiCo, abych v\u00a0informac\u00edch zjistil n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Senior secured note<\/strong> \u2013 ozna\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee se v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bankrotu jedn\u00e1 o seniorn\u00ed nezaji\u0161t\u011bnou pohled\u00e1vku a takto ji budu muset do p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9ho insolven\u010dn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed tak\u00e9 p\u0159ihl\u00e1sit. Nen\u00ed tedy zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdmi v\u011bcmi, kter\u00e9 by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 zpen\u011b\u017eit a obdr\u017eet tak \u010d\u00e1st v\u00fdt\u011b\u017eku zpen\u011b\u017een\u00ed t\u00e9to v\u011bci p\u0159ipadaj\u00edc\u00ed na mou zaji\u0161t\u011bnou pohled\u00e1vku, ale mus\u00edm vy\u010dkat na rozd\u011blen\u00ed cel\u00e9ho v\u00fdt\u011b\u017eku zpen\u011b\u017een\u00ed majetku spole\u010dnosti (v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b likvidace) nebo o\u010dek\u00e1vat pln\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159ipadaj\u00edc\u00ed na seniorn\u00ed nezaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 pohled\u00e1vky podle p\u0159ijat\u00e9ho reorganiza\u010dn\u00edho pl\u00e1nu (v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b reorganizace).\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0 \u00a0Riziko p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise (Call Risk)<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00e1kup dluhopisu s del\u0161\u00ed dobou splatnosti m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161et risk z p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise<\/strong> (nebo jej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti) emitentem (Call), kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdznamn\u011b naru\u0161it p\u0159edstavy dr\u017eitele o v\u00fdnosu, kter\u00fd si s touto investic\u00ed spojil. Ve smyslu tohoto risku je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed v \u00favodu podotknout dv\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 okolnosti. 1\/ Treasuries<\/strong>, tedy americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopisy, \u017e\u00e1dnou \u201evestav\u011bnou mo\u017enost\u201c zp\u011btn\u00e9ho odkupu p\u0159ed splatnost\u00ed nemaj\u00ed<\/strong>, investo\u0159i do t\u011bchto dluhopis\u016f jsou tak chr\u00e1n\u011bni p\u0159ed t\u00edmto rizikem. 2\/ Zp\u011btn\u00fd odkup<\/strong> p\u0159ed splatnost\u00ed je v\u017edy v\u00fdhodn\u00fd pro emitenta<\/strong> dluhopisu a jen za ur\u010dit\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed v\u00fdhodn\u00fd pro dr\u017eitele dluhopisu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00e1kupu dluhopisu by m\u011bla p\u0159edch\u00e1zet alespo\u0148 zevrubn\u00e1 anal\u00fdza jeho vlastnost\u00ed, ke kter\u00e9 by ur\u010dit\u011b m\u011blo pat\u0159it prozkoum\u00e1n\u00ed podm\u00ednek<\/strong> mo\u017enosti zp\u011btn\u00e9ho odkupu<\/strong> (Call Provision, Redemption Provision). Pokud bych mohl prozkoumat dluhopis spole\u010dnosti RCL zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd v\u00fd\u0161e v \u010dl\u00e1nku, pak by mi nem\u011bla v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b uniknou informace o mo\u017enosti zp\u011btn\u00e9ho odkupu emise t\u011bchto dluhopis\u016f emitentem v term\u00ednu p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm term\u00ednu \u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 splatnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Mohu pak vypozorovat, \u017ee pro p\u011btilet\u00fd dluhopis s\u00a0kup\u00f3nem 3.70% p.a. (1)<\/span><\/strong> se splatnost\u00ed 15.3.2028<\/strong> m\u00e1 jeho emitent mo\u017enost p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u011b vykoupit emisi t\u011bchto dluhopis\u016f k 15.12.2027 (2)<\/span><\/strong>, tedy t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce<\/strong> p\u0159ed jeho splatnost\u00ed<\/strong>. Jeho aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodovan\u00e1 cena je 778,10 USD (3)<\/span><\/strong>. \u00a0Pokud by k takov\u00e9mu svol\u00e1n\u00ed do\u0161lo pr\u00e1v\u011b 15.12.2027, mus\u00edm vyhodnotit, co by takov\u00e9 svol\u00e1n\u00ed zp\u016fsobilo. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je vypo\u010dten pomoc\u00ed excelu popsan\u00e9m v \u010dl\u00e1nku Dluhopisy \u2013 V.<\/a><\/strong><\/span> v\u00fdnos do splatnosti tohoto dluhopisu (Yield To Maturity – YTM), tedy situace, kdybych jej dnes nakoupil a dr\u017eel jej cel\u00fdch p\u011bt let a\u017e do 15.3.2028.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Z\u00a0obr\u00e1zku vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee bych za obdob\u00ed do splatnosti m\u011bl z\u00a0dluhopisu celkem deset pen\u011b\u017en\u00edch tok\u016f, p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z\u00a0vyzna\u010den\u00fdch kup\u00f3n\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou splatn\u00e9 pololetn\u011b a u splatnosti 15.3.2028 bych s\u00a0posledn\u00ed kup\u00f3novou spl\u00e1tkou obdr\u017eel Face Value ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1000 USD (1)<\/strong><\/span>. Tyto pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed toky by p\u0159edstavovaly YTM na \u00farovni 9.530 % p.a. (2)<\/span><\/strong>. P\u0159i p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9m svol\u00e1n\u00ed dluhopis\u016f k\u00a0datu 15.12.2027 bych ale p\u0159i\u0161el o posledn\u00ed spl\u00e1tku kup\u00f3nu<\/strong> napl\u00e1novanou na 15.3.2028 a celkov\u00fd v\u00fdnos by tak byl samoz\u0159ejm\u011b o n\u011bco ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. Mohu si pak takovou situaci zapracovat do stejn\u00e9ho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu v\u00fdnosu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Neexistence posledn\u00ed kup\u00f3nov\u00e9 platby by byla nahrazena spl\u00e1tkou Face Value<\/strong> o t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce d\u0159\u00edve (1)<\/span><\/strong> pr\u00e1v\u011b d\u00edky Call operaci emitenta, celkov\u00fd v\u00fdnos by se tak sn\u00ed\u017eil na 9.181% p.a. (2)<\/span><\/strong>. Je tak hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fd YTM, kter\u00fd po\u010d\u00edtal s\u00a0dr\u017een\u00edm dluhopisu do jeho splatnosti. D\u00edky zp\u016fsobu v\u00fdpo\u010dtu tohoto v\u00fdnosu vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho z\u00a0p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise (Call) se takto ur\u010den\u00e9mu v\u00fdnosu \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Yield-To-Call<\/strong> (YTC).<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Konstrukce p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt v\u00edce podob a nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt nutn\u011b v n\u011bjak\u00e9 vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 budoucnosti, pro p\u0159\u00edklad dluhopis Citigroup Inc. se splatnost\u00ed v roce 2031.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Mohu vypozorovat, \u017ee v\u00a0okam\u017eiku, kdy p\u00ed\u0161u tento \u010dl\u00e1nek (b\u0159ezen 2023), je datum nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edho svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise napl\u00e1nov\u00e1no na 30.4.2023, tedy za jeden m\u011bs\u00edc. To v\u0161ak nen\u00ed cel\u00e1 konstrukce Call. V\u00a0prospektu k\u00a0tomuto dluhopisu mohu zjistit n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Dluhopis byl vyd\u00e1n v roce 2019 a z prospektu mohu zjistit, \u017ee od \u0159\u00edjna 2022<\/strong> m\u016f\u017ee emitent za\u010d\u00edt p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u011b svol\u00e1vat emisi t\u011bchto dluhopis\u016f, a to celou a nikoliv jenom jej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st. Call \u201ev\u00fdkupn\u00ed term\u00edny\u201c jsou pak stanoveny na 30. den ka\u017ed\u00e9ho kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edho ledna, dubna, \u010dervence a \u0159\u00edjna po\u010d\u00ednaje \u0159\u00edjnem 2022. Mohu tak pozorovat cel\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec okam\u017eik\u016f v budoucnosti, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9mu splacen\u00ed m\u00e9ho dluhopisu. Jak mohu v\u0161echny tyto v\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00e9 skute\u010dnosti kolem \u201eCall mo\u017enosti\u201c prakticky a zjednodu\u0161en\u011b interpretovat: \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1\/<\/strong> Riziko p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho splacen\u00ed m\u011b m\u016f\u017ee ohrozit<\/strong> p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee nakoup\u00edm dluhopis s\u00a0pr\u00e9miem<\/strong>, tedy za v\u00edce ne\u017e je Face Value. Proto\u017ee p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise znamen\u00e1 vyplacen\u00ed Face Value jeho dr\u017eiteli, mohu utrp\u011bt ztr\u00e1tu z\u00a0rozd\u00edlu po\u0159izovac\u00ed a v\u00fdkupn\u00ed ceny, naopak u dluhopisu nakoupen\u00e9ho s\u00a0diskontem mohu t\u011b\u017eit z\u00a0rozd\u00edlu po\u0159izovac\u00ed ceny a jeho v\u00fdkupn\u00ed ceny, kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st zaj\u00edmav\u00fd kapit\u00e1lov\u00fd v\u00fdnos.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 2\/<\/strong> Pokud jsem dluhopis zakoupil na n\u011bjak\u00e9 \u00farovni o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho YTD, mohou m\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny z o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdnosu b\u00fdt naru\u0161eny pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdm splacen\u00edm mnou dr\u017een\u00e9ho dluhopisu. N\u00e1kup dluhopisu s ur\u010ditou v\u00fd\u0161i kup\u00f3nu a za ur\u010ditou cenu odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed situaci na trhu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v okam\u017eiku po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Emitent v\u011bt\u0161inou p\u0159istoup\u00ed ke p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9mu splacen\u00ed emise v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, kdy \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby klesnou v\u00fdrazn\u011b pod sazbu vyzna\u010denou v kup\u00f3nu, jednodu\u0161e proto, \u017ee se rozhodne nap\u0159\u00edklad v nov\u00e9 emisi zafinancovat sv\u00e9 pot\u0159eby s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm kup\u00f3nem a z\u00edskat tak po\u017eadovan\u00e9 pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed prost\u0159edky podstatn\u011b levn\u011bji. Pokud tedy nakupuji dluhopisy s kup\u00f3nem vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm, ne\u017e jsou aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed sazby na trz\u00edch, zcela jist\u011b je po\u0159\u00edd\u00edm za cenu vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e je Face Value (s pr\u00e9miem), pravd\u011bpodobnost p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho svol\u00e1n\u00ed emise za takov\u00e9 situace je vysok\u00e1 a m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st v\u00fd\u0161e popisovanou ztr\u00e1tu z rozd\u00edlu po\u0159izovac\u00ed ceny dluhopisu a vypo\u0159\u00e1dac\u00ed ceny. Pro dluhopisov\u00e9ho investora to nav\u00edc tak\u00e9 znamen\u00e1, \u017ee pokud bude cht\u00edt sv\u00e9 prost\u0159edky z p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u011b svolan\u00e9 emise op\u011bt um\u00edstit na dluhopisov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, poda\u0159\u00ed se mu to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b za ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fd v\u00fdnos ne\u017e u svolan\u00e9 emise, pokud by se tedy rozhodl pro investici do stejn\u011b kvalitn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. Co je dobr\u00e9 pro emitenta nen\u00ed dobr\u00e9 pro investora, to plat\u00ed v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dokonale.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 3\/<\/strong> Porovn\u00e1n\u00ed Yield-To-Maturity<\/strong> a Yield-To-Call<\/strong>, tedy zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e1 z t\u011bchto hodnot je ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, vede ke stanoven\u00ed hodnoty tzv. Yield-To-Worst<\/strong>. Na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed nemus\u00edm nejd\u0159\u00edve spo\u010d\u00edtat pracn\u011b ob\u011b hodnoty YTM a YTC a z nich odvodit, kter\u00e1 je „hor\u0161\u00ed“, ale mohu hodnotu Yield-To-Worst (hor\u0161\u00ed z obou hodnot YTM a YTC) zji\u0161\u0165ovat p\u0159\u00edmo v aplikac\u00edch a obchodn\u00edch platform\u00e1ch. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je patrn\u00e9, jak nakl\u00e1d\u00e1 s Yield-To-Worst obchodn\u00ed platforma TWS:<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Stejn\u00fd \u00fadaj Yield-To Worst pak mohu odez\u00edrat nap\u0159\u00edklad z obecn\u00e9 specifikace dluhopisu (na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee pro popisovan\u00fd dluhopis Citigroup) na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch FINRA<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0Reinvesti\u010dn\u00ed riziko (Reinvestment Risk)<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 V \u010dl\u00e1nku Dluhopisy \u2013 V.<\/a><\/strong><\/span> popisuj\u00edc\u00edm m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed v\u00fdnosu dluhopisu byl p\u0159i stanoven\u00ed hodnoty v\u00fdnosu do splatnosti (YTM) vysloven z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad v\u00fdpo\u010dtu, tedy to, \u017ee vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fd v\u00fdnos po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s reinvestic\u00ed obdr\u017een\u00fdch kup\u00f3nov\u00fdch plateb s \u00farokovou sazbou rovnaj\u00edc\u00ed se vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 hodnot\u011b YTM. Nemus\u00edm asi nijak zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 zd\u016fraz\u0148ovat, \u017ee tento p\u0159edpoklad je v praxi \u201enedodr\u017eiteln\u00fd\u201c. Neust\u00e1l\u00e1 zm\u011bna \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb nem\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st ke stoprocentn\u00edmu napln\u011bn\u00ed tohoto p\u0159edpokladu, zejm\u00e9na pokud se sna\u017e\u00edm o stanoven\u00ed v\u00fdnosu dluhopis\u016f s dlouhou dobou splatnosti, jednodu\u0161e odhadnout, kam se \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby pohnou v n\u011bjak\u00e9m dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edm horizontu je prakticky nemo\u017en\u00e9. Mus\u00edm tak vz\u00edt na v\u011bdom\u00ed, \u017ee pokud utr\u017een\u00e9 kup\u00f3ny budu reinvestovat<\/strong> za ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbou<\/strong> ne\u017e je vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fd a p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd v\u00fdnos do splatnosti (YTM), moje o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed celkov\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu bude ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed<\/strong>. Naopak reinvestov\u00e1n\u00ed kup\u00f3n\u016f v obdob\u00edch vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb<\/strong> ne\u017e byl vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fd YTM povede k celkov\u00e9mu vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmu v\u00fdnosu<\/strong> z dluhopisu. Co mohu k riziku vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmu z t\u00e9to skute\u010dnosti podotknout:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 1\/<\/strong> Pokud porostou \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, ceny nakoupen\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f v m\u00e9m portfoliu budou klesat. Mohu v\u0161ak obdr\u017een\u00e9 kup\u00f3ny z t\u011bchto dluhopis\u016f investovat za vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, tedy kompenzovat pokles<\/strong> ceny dluhopis\u016f vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi p\u0159\u00edjmy<\/strong> vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z t\u011bchto v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch reinvestic. Je pak jasn\u00e9, \u017ee pokud kup\u00f3ny utrat\u00edm nebo nereinvestuji jejich celou \u010d\u00e1st, je vliv r\u016fstu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb na m\u00e9 dluhopisov\u00e9 portfolio markantn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Cel\u00fd efekt samoz\u0159ejm\u011b p\u016fsob\u00ed tak\u00e9 naopak, v obdob\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb mohu pozorovat r\u016fst ceny m\u00fdch nakoupen\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f, naproti tomu je ov\u0161em v\u00fdnos z reinvestov\u00e1n\u00ed ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 2\/<\/strong> Reinvesti\u010dn\u00edho rizika jsou zcela zbaveny zerobondy<\/strong>, nic k reinvestov\u00e1n\u00ed toti\u017e nenab\u00edzej\u00ed. Pokud jsou dr\u017eeny do splatnosti, je jejich po\u0159izovac\u00ed cena odrazem v\u00fdnosu, kter\u00fd obdr\u017e\u00edm u jejich splatnosti. N\u00e1kup p\u011btilet\u00e9ho US-T zerobondu<\/strong> se splatnost\u00ed 15.11.2028 za cenu 813.24 USD znamen\u00e1 stanoven\u00ed YTD na \u00farovni 3.722% p.a<\/strong>. (v\u00fdpo\u010det podle excelu z \u010dl\u00e1nku Dluhopisy \u2013 V.<\/a><\/strong><\/span>), nemus\u00edm nic reinvestovat, tento v\u00fdnos m\u00e1m zaru\u010den.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Riziko inflace (Inflation Risk)<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 D\u00edky tomu, \u017ee dluhopisov\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje nab\u00edzej\u00ed pevn\u00fd budouc\u00ed v\u00fdnos, jsou tyto v\u00fdnosy zasa\u017eeny vlivem aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed inflace. Dluhopis s\u00a0kup\u00f3nem 3% p.a. p\u0159i aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e inflace 12% nebude patrn\u011b z\u00a0pohledu kupn\u00ed s\u00edly tohoto kup\u00f3nu n\u011bjakou z\u00e1zra\u010dnou ochranou proti takto vysok\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e inflace. Pokud chci po sv\u00e9 dluhopisov\u00e9 investici ochranu proti inflaci, m\u011bl bych takovou investici sm\u011brovat do dluhopis\u016f s\u00a0plovouc\u00ed sazbou<\/strong> (Floating Rates) nebo do dluhopis\u016f s\u00a0v\u00fdnosem<\/strong> nav\u00e1zan\u00fdm na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u00edru inflace<\/strong> (TIPS). Budu se t\u011bmito dluhopisy zab\u00fdvat v\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9m z\u00a0budouc\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f, nebudu se tak nyn\u00ed pou\u0161t\u011bt do hlub\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzy tohoto rizika.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Riziko likvidity (Liquidity Risk)<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Dluhopisy, kter\u00e9 popisuji, jsou ve\u0159ejn\u011b obchodovan\u00e9 cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry a jako takov\u00e9 maj\u00ed svou likviditu, tedy schopnost b\u00fdt nakoupeny nebo prod\u00e1ny za p\u0159ijatelnou cenu. Jako ka\u017ed\u00fd cenn\u00fd pap\u00edr m\u00e1 svou likviditu odvozenou zejm\u00e9na od z\u00e1jmu jej obchodovat, to sam\u00e9 plat\u00ed tak\u00e9 o dluhopisech. Nejatraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopisy s kr\u00e1tkou dobou splatnosti maj\u00ed likviditu obrovskou a prodat nebo nakoupit takov\u00fd dluhopis lze za v\u00fdznamn\u011b \u00fazk\u00fd Ask\/Bid spread. \u010c\u00edm m\u00e9n\u011b obchodovan\u00fd a popt\u00e1van\u00fd cenn\u00fd pap\u00edr, t\u00edm v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed spread mezi Ask a Bid, to si mus\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd dluhopisov\u00fd obchodn\u00edk uv\u011bdomit. Jednoduchou ochranou proti riziku vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edho z likvidity je rozhodnut\u00ed dr\u017eet jej do jeho splatnosti. To je sice dobr\u00e9 doporu\u010den\u00ed, nicm\u00e9n\u011b mohou nastat situace, kdy se budu cht\u00edt dluhopisu zbavit a p\u0159i tomto rozhodnut\u00ed mohu na t\u00e9to transakci v\u00fdznamn\u011b tratit pr\u00e1v\u011b z d\u016fvodu omezen\u00e9 likividity, je proto dobr\u00e9 p\u0159i z\u00e1kladn\u00ed anal\u00fdze dluhopisu prozkoumat, zda je o m\u016fj dluhopis z\u00e1jem a jak\u00e9 objemy obchod\u016f jsou na t\u011bchto dluhopisech prov\u00e1d\u011bny. Toto zji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed jsem popisoval v \u010dl\u00e1nku o z\u00e1kladn\u00ed anal\u00fdze dluhopisu v \u010dl\u00e1nku Dluhopisy \u2013 IV.<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Dluhopis je cenn\u00fd pap\u00edr a investice do n\u011bj nese specifick\u00e1 rizika. Je pak dobr\u00e9 m\u00edt o t\u011bchto rizic\u00edch alespo\u0148 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed pov\u011bdom\u00ed a vyhnout se mo\u017enosti jejich vliv\u016f na mou p\u0159\u00edpadnou dluhopisovou investici. Snad v\u00fd\u0161e napsan\u00e9 \u0159\u00e1dky p\u0159isp\u011bly k jejich obecn\u00e9mu a zjednodu\u0161en\u00e9mu pozn\u00e1n\u00ed a popisu :c)<\/span><\/p>\n

Koment\u00e1\u0159e a p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvky k tomuto \u010dl\u00e1nku pros\u00edm sm\u011brujte do Diskuzn\u00edho f\u00f3ra do tohoto vl\u00e1kna<\/a><\/strong><\/span> :c)<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 Vypad\u00e1 to doposud, jakoby obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0dluhopisy bylo bezpe\u010dnou proch\u00e1zkou les\u00edkem, sta\u010d\u00ed m\u00edt pouze p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 oble\u010den\u00ed, hezk\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed a dobrou n\u00e1ladu a pocit celkov\u00e9ho \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed m\u011b pot\u00e9 nem\u016f\u017ee minout. Stejn\u011b jako u jin\u00fdch obchodovan\u00fdch t\u0159\u00edd aktiv plat\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fd\u0161e podstupovan\u00e9ho rizika je odm\u011b\u0148ov\u00e1na adekv\u00e1tn\u00ed porc\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9ho profitu, je takto formulovan\u00e1 Continue Reading<\/i><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6265,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[60],"tags":[61],"class_list":["post-6234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dluhopisy","tag-dluhopisy"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/main.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8zd8A-1Cy","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6010,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6010","url_meta":{"origin":6234,"position":0},"title":"Dluhopisy \u2013 III.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"14.12.2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0N\u00e1kupem dluhopisu p\u016fj\u010duji pen\u00edze. Nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed definice, kterou by si mohla zaslou\u017eit odpov\u011b\u010f na ot\u00e1zku, co to vlastn\u011b dluhopis je. Emitent dluhopisu \u2013 dlu\u017en\u00edk - vstupuje do pr\u00e1vn\u00edho svazku s v\u011b\u0159itelem (t\u0159eba se mnou), kter\u00fd je zalo\u017een na z\u00e1vazku dlu\u017en\u00edka platit v\u011b\u0159iteli periodick\u00fd \u00farok ve form\u011b kup\u00f3nu a splatit celou p\u016fvodn\u011b\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/main.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/main.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/main.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6340,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6340","url_meta":{"origin":6234,"position":1},"title":"Dluhopisy – IX.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"26.4.2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Obchody s dluhopisy maj\u00ed sv\u016fj smysl a nen\u00ed od v\u011bci porozum\u011bt jejich fungov\u00e1n\u00ed. Pozn\u00e1n\u00ed teorie je skv\u011bl\u00e1 v\u011bc, nicm\u00e9n\u011b nesm\u00edm zapomenout v p\u0159em\u00ed\u0159e teoretizov\u00e1n\u00ed tak\u00e9 na praktickou str\u00e1nku tohoto typu obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed, tedy jak skute\u010dn\u011b dluhopis po\u0159\u00eddit. Dne\u0161n\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek pak bude o dluhopisech v prost\u0159ed\u00ed m\u00e9ho brokera Interactive Brokers, kde\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/SC1.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/SC1.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/SC1.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6833,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6833","url_meta":{"origin":6234,"position":2},"title":"Dluhopisy \u2013 XIV. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"7.12.2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi dluhopisov\u00fdmi deriv\u00e1ty jsou dluhopisov\u00e9 futures. Napodobit dr\u017een\u00ed dluhopis\u016f (v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku americk\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f), ani\u017e bych se jich jen dotknul, mi pom\u016f\u017ee existence tzv. \u201eTreasury Futures\u201c kontrakt\u016f. Nebudu se nyn\u00ed nijak v\u00fdznamn\u011b zdr\u017eovat n\u011bjak\u00fdm kv\u011btnat\u00fdm \u00favodem \u010dl\u00e1nku a bez ot\u00e1len\u00ed se pono\u0159\u00edm p\u0159\u00edmo do pozoruhodn\u00e9ho t\u00e9matu, kter\u00fd\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OI5.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OI5.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OI5.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/OI5.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6561,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6561","url_meta":{"origin":6234,"position":3},"title":"Dluhopisy \u2013 XI.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"26.8.2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0Dluhopisov\u00fd seri\u00e1l pokra\u010duje, p\u00ed\u0161e se jeho dal\u0161\u00ed d\u00edl. Pokud se zd\u00e1, \u017ee se podrobn\u011b a mo\u017en\u00e1 zbyte\u010dn\u011b v\u011bnuji americk\u00fdm vl\u00e1dn\u00edm dluhopis\u016fm, tak tento \u010dl\u00e1nek op\u011bt nebude o ni\u010dem jin\u00e9m, n\u011b\u017e pr\u00e1v\u011b o t\u00e9to kategorii dluhov\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f. Pro\u010d tomu tak je vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z m\u00e9ho praktick\u00e9ho pohledu na v\u011bc. Krom\u011b toho,\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Aukce1.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Aukce1.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Aukce1.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Aukce1.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6742,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6742","url_meta":{"origin":6234,"position":4},"title":"Dluhopisy \u2013 XIII.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"28.10.2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0 Poznat a pochopit dluhopisov\u00fd trh, porozum\u011bt z\u00e1kladn\u00edm princip\u016fm spojen\u00fdch s nakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed s dluhopisy a zjednodu\u0161en\u00fd vhled do mo\u017enost\u00ed, jak je u sv\u00e9ho brokera nakoupit a co to m\u016f\u017ee pro m\u011b znamenat, bylo p\u0159edm\u011btem p\u0159edchoz\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f. Nabyt\u00e9 poznatky pak mohu aplikovat na zapojen\u00ed dluhopis\u016f do sv\u00e9ho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed a nemus\u00ed to\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eDluhopisy\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Dluhopisy","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=60"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/main-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/main-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/main-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/main-1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6439,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=6439","url_meta":{"origin":6234,"position":5},"title":"Dluhopisy – X. \u00a0","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"24.6.2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Z\u00edskat z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159ehled o dluhopisov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, pochopit a popsat z\u00e1kladn\u00ed pojmy spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0dluhov\u00fdmi cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry, zamyslet se nad v\u00fdpo\u010dtem v\u00fdnosu dluhopisu nebo prozkoumat mo\u017enost obchodovat tyto cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry u brokera Interactive Brokers bylo, mimo dal\u0161\u00ed drobnosti, p\u0159edm\u011btem p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch text\u016f dluhopisov\u00e9ho seri\u00e1lu. 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