{"id":2654,"date":"2018-12-04T15:52:53","date_gmt":"2018-12-04T13:52:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=2654"},"modified":"2022-09-18T08:36:58","modified_gmt":"2022-09-18T06:36:58","slug":"ratio-spread-iii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=2654","title":{"rendered":"Ratio Spread \u2013 III."},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0minul\u00fdch dvou \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch jsem se zab\u00fdval existenc\u00ed Ratio Spread\u016f s\u00a0po\u0159\u00edzenou Long opc\u00ed za sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dvou Short op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f. Tento nestejn\u00fd po\u010det sou\u010dasn\u011b po\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch opc\u00ed se stejnou expirac\u00ed pak generoval ur\u010dit\u00e9 vlastnosti takov\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace a z\u00a0n\u00ed vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed nutnost jej\u00edmu dokonal\u00e9mu porozum\u011bn\u00ed a ostra\u017eitosti p\u0159i p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9m obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Tyto n\u00e1strahy jsem pak podpo\u0159il praktickou uk\u00e1zkou s\u00a0op\u010dn\u00edmi kontrakty na podkladov\u00e9 aktivum ES (E-mini futures S&P 500) spolu s\u00a0kroky, kter\u00e9 by mohly v\u00e9st k\u00a0dostate\u010dn\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00e9mu obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed takov\u00e9 strategie.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Ratio Spread 1:2 (jedna Long opce a dv\u011b Short opce) jsem p\u0159irovnal k \u201einvalidn\u00edmu mot\u00fdlovi\u201c proto\u017ee na rozd\u00edl od kombinace Butterfly chyb\u00ed p\u0159i po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed Ratio Spreadu 1:2 jedna Long opce. Absence t\u00e9to Long opce pak vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed diametr\u00e1ln\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed profil zisku a ztr\u00e1ty ne\u017e kombinace Butterfly, kde je risk omezen pouze n\u00e1klady na jeho po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kde\u017eto u Ratio Spread\u016f<\/strong> hroz\u00ed mo\u017enost neomezen\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty d\u00edky existenci nekryt\u00e9 Short opce<\/strong>. Pro\u010d jsem se v\u016fbec obchodov\u00e1n\u00edm takov\u00e9 nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 pozice v\u016fbec zab\u00fdval? Proto\u017ee se d\u00e1 p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b \u0159\u00eddit a p\u0159i spr\u00e1vn\u00e9m vstupu a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9m zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed mohu vstupovat do takov\u00e9ho Ratio Spreadu s\u00a0velmi mal\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady (dokonce s\u00a0kreditem) a p\u0159i o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9m v\u00fdvoji tak vytv\u00e1\u0159et velmi dobr\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky na dobr\u00fd profit. Obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed Ratio Spread\u016f nab\u00edz\u00ed \u0159adu p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f a variant, v\u00a0tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku se pokus\u00edm popsat n\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00a0nich.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Kredit<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Sestaven\u00ed Ratio Spreadu 1:2 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt doprov\u00e1zeno r\u016fzn\u00fdmi po\u017eadavky na vstup a tyto po\u017eadavky pak mohu n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem kvantifikovat a rozd\u011blit. Nyn\u00ed se ji\u017e nebudu zab\u00fdvat my\u0161lenkou vhodnosti vstupu do pozice v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadech, \u017ee je aktu\u00e1ln\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed Implied Volatilita a podkladov\u00e9 aktivum ne\u010del\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed ud\u00e1losti, s\u00a0t\u00edmto jsem se vypo\u0159\u00e1dal v\u00a0minul\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch. Pokud bych se rozhodoval pro vstup do jednoduch\u00e9ho Ratio Spreadu 1:2 na jak\u00fdkoliv podklad, mohla by b\u00fdt m\u00fdm z\u00e1kladn\u00edm krit\u00e9riem<\/strong> v\u00fd\u0161e \u00favodn\u00ed investice<\/strong>. Ratio Spread 1:2 je pro m\u011b investic\u00ed do op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou ve stejn\u00e9 expiraci na nestejn\u00fdch strike. Pokud bych uva\u017eoval o Call Ratio Spreadu 1:2, pak by byl sestaven z\u00a0Long Call opce a dvou Short opc\u00edch na vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm strike a proto\u017ee opce na vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm strike maj\u00ed v\u017edy m\u00e9n\u011b Pr\u00e9mia ne\u017e opce na ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm strike, mohu svou investici konstruovat tak, \u017ee se budu \u0159\u00eddit celkovou sumou n\u00e1klad\u016f na po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed cel\u00e9 kombinace a odhl\u00e9dnu od ostatn\u00edch parametr\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je zobrazen op\u010dn\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzec n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch t\u0159\u00ed expirac\u00ed op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f na akcii GS. Vyzna\u010dil jsem v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch expirac\u00edch takov\u00e9 kontrakty pro zam\u00fd\u0161len\u00e9 Ratio Spready 1:2<\/strong> na obou stran\u00e1ch op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce tak, aby Long opce m\u011bly v\u017edy stejn\u00fd strike a oba Ratio Spready (Call i Put) mohly reagovat na jak\u00fdkoliv pohyb ve kter\u00e9mkoliv ze sm\u011br\u016f. Jedin\u00fdm parametrem pak je snaha vytvo\u0159it takovou kombinaci tak, aby v\u017edy byl dosa\u017een kredit<\/strong>, tedy aby v\u00fddaje na Long opci byly zcela pokryty v\u00fdpisem dvou Short op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f \u201emimo pen\u00edze\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Snaha vstupovat za kredit jednodu\u0161e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd z Ratio Spread\u016f<\/strong> (Call i Put) m\u00e1 pouze jeden BreakEven bod<\/strong>, kter\u00fd le\u017e\u00ed v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Call Ratio Spreadu<\/strong> 1:2 nad strike<\/strong> vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vypsan\u00e9 opce a v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Put Ratio Spreadu<\/strong> 1:2 pod strike<\/strong> vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vypsan\u00e9 opce. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee p\u0159i expiraci cena bude pod strike Long Call nebo nad strike Long Put (av\u0161ak nebude zasa\u017een Short strike bl\u00ed\u017ee vypsan\u00e9 opce), z\u016fstane mi v\u017edy nejm\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159ijat\u00e9 Pr\u00e9mium a je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjak\u00fd bonus obsa\u017een\u00fd v\u00a0cen\u011b Long opce, kter\u00e1 bude \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c. Z\u00a0obr\u00e1zku vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee nejh\u016f\u0159e z\u00a0pohledu bl\u00edzkosti BreakEven bod\u016f je na tom nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed expirace, kde jsou men\u0161\u00ed Pr\u00e9mia, proto\u017ee ji\u017e nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 opc\u00edm mnoho \u010dasu do expirace. S\u00a0nar\u016fstaj\u00edc\u00edm \u010dasem pak doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke vzdalov\u00e1n\u00ed BreakEven bod\u016f<\/strong> od sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ceny, kter\u00e9 je zp\u016fsobeno jednak v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi Pr\u00e9mii<\/strong> na vypsan\u00fdch Short op\u010dn\u00edch kontraktech, kter\u00e9 pom\u00e1haj\u00ed umo\u0159ovat n\u00e1klady na Long op\u010dn\u00ed kontrakty a tak\u00e9 mo\u017enost\u00ed vypsan\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed kontrakty posouvat do v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vzd\u00e1lenosti<\/strong> a vytv\u00e1\u0159et v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1l profitu na Vertik\u00e1ln\u00edch Debetn\u00edch Spreadech tvo\u0159\u00edc\u00ed jednotliv\u00e9 Ratio Spready. Toto je z\u00a0obr\u00e1zku patrn\u00e9 na Put stran\u011b pro variantu \u201eB\u201c a \u201eC\u201c, kde tyto Put Bear Spready maj\u00ed potenci\u00e1l +500 USD, zat\u00edmco v\u0161echny zbyl\u00e9 Vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed Debetn\u00ed Spready v\u00a0jin\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech maj\u00ed potenci\u00e1l pouze +250 USD. Je pak ot\u00e1zkou, jestli pom\u011br vzd\u00e1lenosti BreakEven bod\u016f a doby do expirace je dostate\u010dn\u011b kompenzov\u00e1n, proto\u017ee z\u00a0jednoduch\u00e9 logiky vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm je doba do expirace vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, t\u00edm je pravd\u011bpodobnost neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho pohybu vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9 srovnat, jak by dopadla konstrukce takov\u00fdch Ratio Spread\u016f s\u00a0op\u010dn\u00edmi kontrakty s\u00a0dobou do expirace za 50 kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edch dn\u016f, <\/strong>tedy ve dvojn\u00e1sobn\u011b vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b, ne\u017e je na obr\u00e1zku v\u00fd\u0161e.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Proto\u017ee jsou jednotliv\u00e9 strike Long opce a bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed Short opce mezi sebou vzd\u00e1leny o p\u011bt bod\u016f (nikoliv o 2.5 bodu jako v\u00a0bli\u017e\u0161\u00edch expirac\u00edch), pokus o sestaven\u00ed kreditn\u00edch Ratio Spread\u016f 1:2 na obou stran\u00e1ch op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce by p\u0159edstavoval rozsah BreakEven bod\u016f v cenov\u00e9m p\u00e1smu 169.90 USD a\u017e 210.10 USD. P\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9 cen\u011b akcie GS na \u00farovni 193.75 USD to p\u0159edstavuje pokles o -12.30 % nebo n\u00e1r\u016fst o +8.43%. Pokud bych si hodnoty tohoto p\u00e1sma srovnal s\u00a0rozsahem p\u00e1sma vytvo\u0159en\u00e9m BreakEven body pro opce s\u00a0expirac\u00ed za 22 dn\u016f z\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00edho obr\u00e1zku (181.28 USD a\u017e 206.22 USD), tak bych mohl konstatovat, \u017ee dvojn\u00e1sobn\u011b del\u0161\u00ed dr\u017een\u00ed Ratio Spread\u016f mi d\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed prostor pohybu na Call stran\u011b o +1.9% a na Put stran\u011b o -6.20%.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed pravidla pro vstup do Ratio Spread\u016f pouze za podm\u00ednky, \u017ee dostanu za takovou pozici zaplaceno, vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dosti zna\u010dn\u00e9 asymetrie a podle m\u00e9ho nen\u00ed zalo\u017eeno na n\u011bjak\u00e9 smyslupln\u00e9 logice. Je sice pravdou, \u017ee za vypsan\u00e9 Short opce ve vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed expiraci dostanu v\u00edce zaplaceno, na druhou stranu v\u0161ak v\u00edce utrat\u00edm za n\u00e1kup Long op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f, tato disproporce pak nekompenzuje riziko vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0mo\u017enosti neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho pohybu s\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0d\u00e9lky dr\u017een\u00ed op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f vzhledem k\u00a0datu jejich expirace. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0Debit, ale jak?<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Z\u00edskat kredit za sestaven\u00ed pozice je velmi jednoduch\u00e9 pravidlo, proto\u017ee vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed omezen\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed v\u00fdb\u011bru op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f, aby bylo spln\u011bno. Pokud bych opustil my\u0161lenku dr\u017eet se t\u00e9to jednoduch\u00e9 z\u00e1sady a rozhodl se, \u017ee budu do t\u011bchto pozic Ratio Spread\u016f vstupovat s\u00a0n\u011bjakou investic\u00ed, otev\u00edraj\u00ed se mi p\u0159i takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edstupu dal\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enosti, jak tento obchodn\u00ed probl\u00e9m prakticky \u0159e\u0161it. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed z\u00e1sadou p\u0159i pokusu obchodovat Ratio Spread je spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 vypo\u010dten\u00ed jeho BreakEven bod\u016f, jako mezn\u00edch hranic profitability, z\u00e1kladn\u00ed snahou by pak m\u011blo b\u00fdt vytvo\u0159en\u00ed co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho prostoru pro mo\u017en\u00fd budouc\u00ed pohyb podklad\u016f, kter\u00fd by vytv\u00e1\u0159el dostate\u010dn\u00fd profit a sou\u010dasn\u011b neohro\u017eoval hranice stanoven\u00e9 profitability podle vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdch BreakEven bod\u016f. Jak\u00e9 bych si tedy mohl vybrat pom\u016fcky, kter\u00e9 by mi stanovily zp\u016fsob, jak sv\u016fj obchod sestavit a m\u00edt dobrou pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee jsem sv\u00e9 BreakEven body um\u00edstil v n\u011bjak\u00e9 rozumn\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti? V\u00fdb\u011br takov\u00fdch pom\u016fcek by m\u011bl b\u00fdt efektivn\u00ed a p\u0159ehledn\u00fd, proto\u017ee vytvo\u0159it a prozkoumat obchod v\u00a0klidu na historick\u00fdch datech p\u0159i jejich anal\u00fdze je jedna v\u011bc, ale rychle se orientovat p\u0159i vstupu do obchodu na \u017eiv\u00fdch datech proud\u00edc\u00edch do obchodn\u00ed platformy v\u00a0otev\u0159en\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed seanci je v\u011bc druh\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Delta jako pravd\u011bpodobnost<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Zobrazen\u00ed \u0159eck\u00e9ho p\u00edsmene Delta v\u00a0op\u010dn\u00edm \u0159et\u011bzci m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt prvn\u00edm u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem. Podstatu tohoto op\u010dn\u00edho parametru jsem popisoval v\u00a0tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/a><\/strong><\/span>. P\u0159ipomenu, \u017ee v\u00fdpo\u010det Delta je odvozen z\u00a0Black-Scholesova oce\u0148ovac\u00edho modelu, kter\u00fd p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee pohyb cen podkladu je n\u00e1hodn\u00fd a je tak zcela stejn\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee cena podkladu (nap\u0159\u00edklad akcie) poklesne nebo vzroste. Pokud je tato pravd\u011bpodobnost takto v\u00a0modelu zachycena, bude to nap\u0159\u00edklad znamenat, \u017ee p\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9 cen\u011b 195 USD za akcii GS bude s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 50% jist\u00e9, \u017ee cena bude stoupat, stejn\u011b tak bude se stejnou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 50% jist\u00e9, \u017ee cena bude klesat. Takto p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobnosti pak budou odr\u00e1\u017eet tak\u00e9 \u00farove\u0148 jednotliv\u00fdch o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch pohyb\u016f k\u00a0ur\u010dit\u00fdm \u00farovn\u00edm vzd\u00e1len\u00fdch od moment\u00e1ln\u00ed ceny. P\u0159i v\u00fdpo\u010dtu Delta se pak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee hodnoty pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch pohyb\u016f od t\u00e9to hodnoty 195 USD (moment\u00e1ln\u00ed st\u0159edn\u00ed hodnota) maj\u00ed Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed rozd\u011blen\u00ed a tyto hodnoty pak maj\u00ed v\u00a0grafick\u00e9m zobrazen\u00ed tvar hustoty pravd\u011bpodobnosti zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho zvonovit\u00e9ho tvaru, tedy k\u0159ivky s hodnotami soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00fdmi kolem st\u0159edn\u00ed hodnoty (Gaussova k\u0159ivka). Hodnoty Delta pak na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u201en\u011bjak\u00e9ho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu\u201c charakterizuj\u00ed polohu bodu jednotliv\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobnosti odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9 cen\u011b podkladov\u00e9ho aktiva. V\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku o Delta<\/a><\/strong><\/span> \u00a0jsem pak popisoval jednu z\u00a0mo\u017en\u00fdch interpretac\u00ed Delta<\/strong> jako pravd\u011bpodobnosti, \u017ee opce expiruj\u00ed \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c<\/strong>, pokud si jej\u00ed hodnotu p\u0159edstav\u00edm jako v\u00fdraz v\u00a0procentech. \u00a0Op\u010dn\u00ed kontrakt na strike 205 s\u00a0Delta 32% pak jednodu\u0161e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee pokud by m\u011bly pravd\u011bpodobnosti pohyb\u016f cen akcie tohoto op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed rozd\u011blen\u00ed, potom je s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 32% jist\u00e9, \u017ee opce se strike 205 bude p\u0159i expiraci \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c. Proto\u017ee hodnotu Delta zobrazuj\u00ed v\u0161echny op\u010dn\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzce v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9 slu\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00ed platform\u011b, mohu pak jednodu\u0161e z\u00a0hodnoty Delta<\/strong> usuzovat, jak\u00e1 bude pravd\u011bpodobnost<\/strong>, \u017ee opce na ur\u010dit\u00e9m strike skon\u010d\u00ed u expirace „v\u00a0pen\u011bz\u00edch“<\/strong> a toto tak\u00e9 pom\u011b\u0159ovat s\u00a0polohou BreakEven bodu m\u00fdch zam\u00fd\u0161len\u00fdch Ratio Spread\u016f. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je op\u010dn\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzec titulu GS s\u00a0nazna\u010denou mo\u017enou konstrukc\u00ed Ratio Spread\u016f 1:2<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Call Ratio Spread +195\/-200\/-202.50<\/strong> bych po\u0159\u00eddil za debet -112 USD<\/strong> a Put Ratio Spread +195\/-190\/-185<\/strong> bych po\u0159\u00eddil za -111 USD<\/strong>, celkov\u011b bych investoval -223 USD<\/strong>. Opce maj\u00ed expiraci za deset kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edch dn\u016f a ka\u017ed\u00fd z\u00a0Ratio Spread\u016f je sestaven z\u00a0Vertik\u00e1ln\u00edho Spreadu<\/strong> s\u00a0potenci\u00e1lem +500 USD (dolarov\u00fd rozsah strike Long opce a bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed vypsan\u00e9 opce) a nekryt\u00e9 Short opce<\/strong>. Maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed potenci\u00e1l profitu je tak definov\u00e1n maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm potenci\u00e1lem t\u011bchto spread\u016f +500 USD m\u00ednus n\u00e1klady na jejich po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed -223 USD, tedy \u010d\u00e1stkou +277 USD. Cel\u00e1 kombinace m\u00e1 \u010dty\u0159i BreakEven body<\/strong>. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b\u00a0dva \u201evnit\u0159n\u00ed\u201c BreakEven body<\/strong> vymezuj\u00edc\u00ed situaci, \u017ee by nedo\u0161lo k\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu pohybu a j\u00e1 bych p\u0159i\u0161el pouze o p\u016fvodn\u00ed investici (expirace p\u0159esn\u011b na strike 195) nebo jej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st, kter\u00e1 je vyzna\u010dena p\u00e1smem strike Long opc\u00ed 195 +\/- n\u00e1klady 223 USD, tedy v\u00a0p\u00e1smu 192.77 USD \u2013 197.23 USD<\/strong>. D\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jsou ale dva\u00a0\u201evn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed“ BreakEven body<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 jsou definov\u00e1ny \u010d\u00e1stkou maxim\u00e1ln\u00edho profitu (+277 USD), kter\u00fd budu muset vynalo\u017eit v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se cena utrhne a bude z\u00e1vratn\u011b klesat nebo dramaticky r\u016fst a j\u00e1 budu muset \u0159e\u0161it vypsan\u00e9 Short opce na ka\u017ed\u00e9 ze stran. K\u00a0tomuto \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed pak budu m\u00edt k\u00a0dispozici pr\u00e1v\u011b +277 USD, tak\u017ee BreakEven body budou ur\u010deny hodnotou strike vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Short Call 202.50 + 277 USD = 205.27 USD<\/strong> a \u00a0hodnotou strike vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Short Put 185 – 277 USD = 182.33 USD<\/strong>. P\u00e1smo 182.33 USD \u2013 205.27<\/strong> USD<\/strong> je pak \u00fazem\u00edm, kdy mohu z\u00edskat +277 USD nebo ztratit pouze celou svou investici -223 USD. Abych mohl vyu\u017e\u00edt Delta k\u00a0posouzen\u00ed, s\u00a0jakou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed dojde mo\u017en\u00e9mu dosa\u017een\u00ed BreakEven bod\u016f 182.33 nebo 205.27 USD pak toto mohu jednodu\u0161e tak, \u017ee vyhodnot\u00edm Delta<\/strong> na nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edm ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm strike Call<\/strong> (205) a Delta<\/strong> na nejbl\u00ed\u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm strike Put<\/strong> (182.50) podle t\u011bchto p\u0159esn\u011b vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdch BreakEven bod\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0obr\u00e1zku jsem tyto hodnoty vyzna\u010dil hn\u011bd\u00fdmi obd\u00e9ln\u00edky a mohu pak vypozorovat, \u017ee m\u016fj BreakEven bod 205.27 USD na Call stran\u011b reprezentovan\u00fd strike 205 m\u00e1 hodnotu Delta 11.30%<\/strong> a m\u016fj BreakEven bod 182.33 USD na Put stran\u011b reprezentovan\u00fd strike 182.50 m\u00e1 hodnotu Delta 14.70%<\/strong>. Toto jsou pravd\u011bpodobnosti, \u017ee p\u0159i expiraci za deset dn\u016f budou zasa\u017eeny strike, kter\u00e9 se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed ve velmi t\u011bsn\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti BreakEven bod\u016f. Je pak velmi jednoduch\u00e9 vypozorovat, \u017ee p\u0159esto\u017ee je vzd\u00e1lenost do sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ceny akcie GS na \u00farovni 194.17 USD v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sm\u011brem ke strike 182.50 na Put stran\u011b, ne\u017e ke strike 205 na Call stran\u011b, tak pravd\u011bpodobnost prora\u017een\u00ed na stran\u011b poklesu je vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed (14.70%) ne\u017e prora\u017een\u00ed na stran\u011b r\u016fstu ceny podkladu (11.30%). Mohl bych tak, ve smyslu t\u00e9to logiky, sestavit Put Ratio Spread 1:2 tak, abych odd\u00e1lil BreakEven bod na t\u00e9to Put stran\u011b (v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed debet) a sou\u010dasn\u011b \u201ep\u0159it\u00e1hl\u201c BreakEven bod na Call stran\u011b (men\u0161\u00ed debet). Obecn\u011b pak mohu podle hodnoty Delta<\/strong> op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f na jednotliv\u00fdch strike vyhodnocovat teoretickou pravd\u011bpodobnost<\/strong>, s\u00a0jakou by mohl b\u00fdt tento strike (bl\u00edzk\u00fd BreakEven bodu) prora\u017een a zp\u016fsobit ztr\u00e1tu pro m\u016fj obchod.<\/span><\/p>\n

Delta Neutralita<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Zab\u00fdvat se principem Delta-Neutrality<\/strong> m\u00fdch potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch Ratio Spread\u016f souvis\u00ed s\u00a0jinou interpretac\u00ed hodnoty Delta, jak jsem ji popisoval v\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku o Delta<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u00a0a tou je schopnost vyj\u00e1d\u0159it pomoc\u00ed hodnoty Delta nakolik komplexn\u00ed op\u010dn\u00ed pozice<\/strong>, slo\u017een\u00e1 s\u00a0n\u011bkolika kontrakt\u016f, napodobuje pohyb samotn\u00e9ho podkladu<\/strong>. Ve zjednodu\u0161en\u00e9 p\u0159edstav\u011b pak celkov\u00e1 Delta, jako sou\u010det Delta jednotliv\u00fdch op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f ve slo\u017een\u00e9 pozici, ud\u00e1v\u00e1 svou hodnotou nejenom o kolik se n\u00e1m zm\u011bn\u00ed hodnota cel\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed pozice p\u0159i ur\u010dit\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b ceny podkladu, tedy jestli p\u0159i r\u016fstu ceny akcie n\u00e1m hodnota cel\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed pozice roste nebo naopak jej\u00ed hodnota kles\u00e1, ale tak\u00e9 jakou si mohu prov\u00e9st simulaci dr\u017een\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed slo\u017eeniny pomoc\u00ed podkladu<\/strong>. Pomoc\u00ed celkov\u00e9 Delta pak z\u00a0t\u011bchto princip\u016f m\u016f\u017eu m\u011b\u0159it aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed risk cel\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed pozice vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0pohybu podkladu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je stejn\u00e1 pozice Ratio Spread\u016f na obou stran\u00e1ch op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce s\u00a0vyzna\u010den\u00fdmi hodnotami Delta jednotliv\u00fdch opc\u00ed v\u00a0obd\u00e9ln\u00edc\u00edch, kdy\u017e \u010derven\u00fd obd\u00e9ln\u00edk<\/strong> znamen\u00e1, \u017ee zobrazen\u00e1 hodnota Delta je z\u00e1porn\u00e1<\/strong> a zelen\u00e9 obd\u00e9ln\u00edky<\/strong> maj\u00ed hodnotu Delta kladnou<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Mohu pak zjistit, po vyn\u00e1soben\u00ed zn\u00e1zorn\u011bn\u00e9 Delta u ka\u017ed\u00e9ho op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu v\u00a0obr\u00e1zku hodnotou 100 a p\u0159id\u011blen\u00edm pat\u0159i\u010dn\u00e9ho znam\u00e9nka, \u017ee si jednotliv\u00fdmi Delta (takto upraven\u011b vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fdmi) mohu vyplnit jednoduchou tabulku a zjistit jej\u00ed celkov\u00fd sou\u010det.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Z\u00a0p\u0159ehledu vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee m\u00e1 pozice dvou Ratio Spread\u016f<\/strong>, Call Ratio Spread +195\/-200\/-202.50 a Put Ratio Spread +195\/-190\/-185 m\u00e1 celkovou Delta<\/strong> ve v\u00fd\u0161i +2,4<\/strong>. Znamen\u00e1 to, p\u0159esto\u017ee to nen\u00ed na prvn\u00ed pohled nijak patrn\u00e9, \u017ee se takto sestrojen\u00e1 op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace se \u0161esti\u00a0r\u016fzn\u00fdch opc\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch typ\u016f na nestejn\u00fdch strike ve stejn\u00e9 expiraci na podkladov\u00e9 aktivum akcie GS, bude v\u00a0danou chv\u00edli chovat zcela identicky<\/strong>, jako bych m\u011bl nakoupeny dv\u011b Long akcie GS <\/strong>(zbyl\u00e9 0.4 akcie nakoupit nelze). P\u0159edstavu o risku si mohu podle celkov\u00e9 Delta takto jednodu\u0161e interpretovat. Nen\u00ed to v\u016fbec \u0161patn\u00e1 v\u00fdchoz\u00ed situace, proto\u017ee celkov\u00e1 Delta je \u201et\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nula\u201c a jednodu\u0161e to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jsem pozici v\u00a0danou chv\u00edli odebral t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dokonale risk vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0pohybu podkladu. Pokles ceny akcie GS o jeden dolar pak bude znamenat stejnou ztr\u00e1tu, jako bych v\u00a0danou chv\u00edli dr\u017eel 2.4 akcie GS, tedy pokles o -2.4 USD.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Vstupovat do slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed op\u010dn\u00ed pozice ve stavu p\u0159edstavuj\u00edc\u00ed Delta-Neutralitu by mohlo b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 dobr\u00fdm parametrem, kter\u00fd by mohl ur\u010dovat umis\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed investice do jednotliv\u00fdch strike, sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed risku vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edho z\u00a0pohybu podkladu by bylo v\u00a0danou chv\u00edli vy\u0159e\u0161eno bez ohledu na to, jestli dostanu za sestaven\u00ed Ratio Spread\u016f zaplaceno nebo budu muset n\u011bjak\u00e9 pen\u00edze vydat, pokud by takov\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed risku bylo pro obchodn\u00edka prioritou. Principy Delta-Neutral obchod\u016f se budu v\u00a0budoucnosti zab\u00fdvat, tak\u017ee bych d\u00e1le nyn\u00ed tento poznatek o celkov\u00e9 Delta d\u00e1le nerozv\u00edjel a ponechal bych jej u t\u00e9to velmi praktick\u00e9 interpretace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Standardn\u00ed odchylka (SD)<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0V\u00fd\u0161e v\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku popsanou pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee pohyb podkladu zp\u016fsob\u00ed, \u017ee bude prora\u017een ur\u010dit\u00fd op\u010dn\u00ed strike pomoc\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed interpretace Delta, mohu v\u00a0obchodn\u00ed platform\u011b TWS m\u00e9ho brokera Interactive Brokers zjistit tak\u00e9 jin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem. Na n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e9m obr\u00e1zku je zobrazen op\u010dn\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzec akcie STZ s\u00a0expirac\u00ed za 12 kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edch dn\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Pokud si ozna\u010d\u00edm ukazatelem my\u0161i ur\u010dit\u00fd strike v\u00a0tomto op\u010dn\u00edm \u0159et\u011bzci, mohu ze zobrazen\u00e9ho okna aplikace TWS odez\u00edrat hodnotu sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky (<\/strong>d\u00e1le jen SD)<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 indikuje pravd\u011bpodobnost mo\u017en\u00e9ho pohybu<\/strong> podkladov\u00e9ho aktiva sm\u011brem k\u00a0ozna\u010den\u00e9mu strike<\/strong> s\u00a0ohledem k\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cen\u011b. Mohu tak jedn\u00edm pohledem, stejn\u011b jako jednoduch\u00fdm pohledem na Delta sledovan\u00e9ho strike, odez\u00edrat hodnotu pravd\u011bpodobnosti, s\u00a0jakou bude p\u0159i expiraci dosa\u017eeno ur\u010dit\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b. Z\u00e1kladn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem takov\u00e9ho zji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed je ale skute\u010dnost, \u017ee nev\u00edm, jak se do platformy TWS dostala vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e1 hodnota SD a tak\u00e9 mus\u00edm pochopit jej\u00ed interpretaci pro m\u00e9 praktick\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Podstatou v\u00fdpo\u010dtu SD (nap\u0159\u00edklad pomoc\u00ed\u00a0Excelu) je v\u00fdb\u011br nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch dat, ze kter\u00fdch mohu tuto hodnotu vypo\u010d\u00edtat, v\u00a0m\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se jednalo nap\u0159\u00edklad o \u010dasovou \u0159adu historick\u00fdch Close cen v\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m \u00faseku. Pomoc\u00ed jednoduch\u00e9ho vzorce a v\u00fdpo\u010dtu, kter\u00fd jsem popisoval nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku Volatilita a cenov\u00fd pohyb \u2013 II.<\/a><\/strong><\/span> nebo v\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku Je opce levn\u00e1 nebo drah\u00e1?<\/strong><\/span><\/a>, mohu pro v\u00fdb\u011br k\u00a0v\u00fdpo\u010dtu SD pou\u017e\u00edt libovoln\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 periody (nap\u0159\u00edklad t\u0159icetidenn\u00ed, desetidenn\u00ed, ro\u010dn\u00ed apod.) Poka\u017ed\u00e9 zjist\u00edm jinou hodnotu sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky v\u00fdb\u011bru a poka\u017ed\u00e9 bude m\u00edt jej\u00ed hodnota zcela jist\u011b jinou vypov\u00eddac\u00ed hodnotu. Podstata v\u00fdb\u011bru a zp\u016fsob v\u00fdpo\u010dtu v\u00a0platform\u011b TWS mi nen\u00ed zn\u00e1m, budu tedy spol\u00e9hat, \u017ee jde o \u201en\u011bjak\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det\u201c s \u201en\u011bjak\u00fdmi\u201c v\u00fdstupn\u00edmi hodnotami. Nem\u00e1m na ur\u010den\u00ed hodnoty SD v\u00a0m\u00e9 platform\u011b TWS jak\u00fdkoliv vliv (abych si ji upravil nebo p\u0159izp\u016fsobil), tak\u017ee se mus\u00edm alespo\u0148 zam\u011b\u0159it na jej\u00ed interpretaci a mo\u017en\u00e9m vyu\u017eit\u00ed v\u00a0obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je zobrazen op\u010dn\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzec akcie GS s\u00a0expirac\u00ed za deset kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edch dn\u016f, u kter\u00e9ho jsem \u017elut\u00fdmi \u010d\u00edsly vyzna\u010dil hodnoty SD, jak se mi nab\u00edzely v\u00a0platform\u011b TWS pro jednotliv\u00e9 strike.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Jak si mohu \u00fadaje o zobrazovan\u00e9 standardn\u00ed odchylce vlastn\u011b prakticky vylo\u017eit? Podle \u201epravidla t\u0159\u00ed sigma<\/strong>\u201c za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 hodnoty, ze kter\u00fdch vych\u00e1z\u00edm maj\u00ed Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed Rozd\u011blen\u00ed, mohu p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee budouc\u00ed ceny se budou nach\u00e1zet rozpt\u00fdleny kolem st\u0159edn\u00ed hodnoty (sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ceny akcie GS podle obr\u00e1zku na \u00farovni 194.17 USD) s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 68,20 %<\/strong>\u00a0mezi sou\u010dasnou cenou akcie GS a hodnotou\u00a0prvn\u00ed standardn\u00ed odchylky<\/strong>, s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 95,40 %<\/strong>\u00a0mezi sou\u010dasnou cenou akcie GS a hodnotou\u00a0druh\u00e9 standardn\u00ed odchylky<\/strong>\u00a0a s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 99,80 %<\/strong>\u00a0mezi sou\u010dasnou cenou akcie GS a hodnotou\u00a0t\u0159et\u00ed standardn\u00ed odchylky. <\/strong>To je zn\u00e1m\u00e1 v\u011bc, vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0matematick\u00e9 statistiky, ale j\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9m obr\u00e1zku vid\u00edm jin\u00e9 hodnoty, ne\u017e je p\u0159esn\u011b hodnota 1.SD nebo 2.SD, abych je mohl takto jednodu\u0161e interpretovat, proto\u017ee nap\u0159\u00edklad na strike 180 mohu pozorovat pravd\u011bpodobnost pohybu o rozsahu 1.4 SD a je tak ot\u00e1zkou, jak\u00fd (nap\u0159\u00edklad procentn\u00ed) pohyb si mohu pod t\u00edmto \u00fadajem p\u0159edstavovat. K\u00a0ur\u010den\u00ed p\u0159esn\u00e9 hodnoty mi pak m\u016f\u017ee velmi jednodu\u0161e funkce v\u00a0Excelu =NORM.DIST<\/strong>, kde k\u00a0dosazen\u00ed vyu\u017eiji hodnoty z\u00a0obr\u00e1zku v\u00fd\u0161e.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0 \u00a0Do vzorce =NORM.DIST <\/strong>dosazuji za argumenty jednotliv\u00e9 parametry podle obr\u00e1zku v\u00fd\u0161e =NORM.DIST(<\/strong>Hledanou pravd\u011bpodobnost pohybu ke strike 180<\/span><\/em>;<\/strong> sou\u010dasnou cenou akcie GS<\/span><\/em>;<\/strong>vypo\u010d\u00edtanou hodnotu SD<\/span><\/em>;<\/strong>\u010d\u00edslo 1<\/span><\/em>)<\/strong>, v\u00fdsledek si nech\u00e1m zobrazit v\u00a0procentn\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed, abych zjistil, \u017ee pravd\u011bpodobnost pohybu na strike 180<\/strong> je 8.08%<\/strong>. Z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1m tak dal\u0161\u00ed rychlou p\u0159edstavu, jak\u00e9 jsou m\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky pro strukturu budouc\u00edho obchodu, kter\u00e9 mohu \u010derpat p\u0159\u00edmo z\u00a0platformy TWS. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 by pak bylo srovn\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong> t\u011bchto pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed podle hodnot odchylek s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnostmi<\/strong> vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fdmi podle Delta<\/strong>. Pokud bych si v\u00fdpo\u010det pravd\u011bpodobnosti podle SD v\u00a0Excelu provedl pro ka\u017ed\u00fd strike, kter\u00fd m\u00e1m v\u00a0obr\u00e1zku s konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm op\u010dn\u00edm \u0159et\u011bzcem na akcii GS a vynesl jej do spole\u010dn\u00e9ho grafu spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nou Delta pro ka\u017ed\u00fd strike, mohl by se mi naskytnout n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00fd pohled.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee se k\u0159ivky grafu v\u00a0podstat\u011b shoduj\u00ed<\/strong> a pravd\u011bpodobnosti vykresluj\u00ed stejn\u00fd tvar. Jsou m\u00edrn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e9 v\u00a0odlehl\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch strike a v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed odchylky jsou na stran\u011b Put, tedy v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pravd\u011bpodobnosti poklesu. Nap\u0159\u00edklad u m\u00e9ho modelov\u00e9ho strike 180 je pravd\u011bpodobnost pohybu podle Delta 10.6%, kde\u017eto podle hodnoty SD je to pravd\u011bpodobnost 8.08%. Mohu si tak vybrat, kter\u00e9 hodnoty nakonec pou\u017eiji nebo kter\u00e9 ze zobrazovan\u00fdch hodnot mi v\u00edce vyhovuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0Pokud bych nem\u011bl k dispozici pro sv\u00e9 obchody obchodn\u00ed platformu TWS od Interactive Brokers, stejnou mo\u017enost porovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fdch pohyb\u016f podle Delta a vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0Norm\u00e1ln\u00edho rozd\u011blen\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti mohu vysledovat nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00a0analytick\u00e9 platform\u011b TOS, kde mohu zvolit pohled na op\u010dn\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzec volbou \u201eLayout<\/strong>\u201c a vybrat zobrazen\u00ed z\u00a0definovanou \u201eProbability OTM<\/strong>\u201c, jako na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Mohu pozorovat, \u017ee akcie FB m\u00e1 p\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9 cen\u011b 140.61 USD stanovenou pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee bude zasa\u017een strike 145 p\u0159i expiraci za 19 kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edch dn\u016f s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 34%<\/strong> (100% – 66%), toto \u010d\u00edslo patrn\u011b bylo vypo\u010dteno p\u0159ibli\u017en\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem jako u platformy TWS, podle Delta je pak tato pravd\u011bpodobnost 37%<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 Nechci slo\u017eit\u011b zobec\u0148ovat a dokazovat na mnoha op\u010dn\u00edch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch patrn\u011b viditelnou skute\u010dnost (zejm\u00e9na z\u00a0grafu srovn\u00e1n\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161e), \u017ee hodnoty pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed dosa\u017een\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9 hodnoty (strike) jsou podle Delta m\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e podle SD, proto bude pohled na tuto pravd\u011bpodobnost optikou Delta \u201ep\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c. Je ale jist\u00e9, \u017ee ob\u011b vypozorovan\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobnosti maj\u00ed velmi p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b stejnou vypov\u00eddac\u00ed schopnost.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Variabilita Ratio<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 V p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch o Ratio Spreadech a v\u00a0dosavadn\u00edm textu tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku se st\u00e1le zab\u00fdv\u00e1m \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm princip\u016f Ratio Spread\u016f 1:2<\/strong> na obou stran\u00e1ch op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce a hled\u00e1n\u00edm zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak o\u0161et\u0159it nekrytou Short opci vzniklou jeho konstrukc\u00ed a zejm\u00e9na hled\u00e1n\u00edm BreakEven bod\u016f se snahou o co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed oddalov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich vzd\u00e1lenosti od sou\u010dasn\u00e9 obchodovan\u00e9 ceny, abych zaji\u0161til co nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed profitabilitu. Rigidn\u00ed setrv\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed na pom\u011bru Ratio Spreadu ve form\u00e1tu 1:2 by pak mohlo b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1no za ur\u010ditou ztuhlost, p\u0159esto\u017ee jde o nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed a nejn\u00e1zorn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed formu Ratio Spreadu. Mohu tuto variantu 1:2 velmi lehce opustit a p\u0159edstavit si snadno r\u016fzn\u00e9 jin\u00e9 pom\u011bry nakoupen\u00fdch a vypsan\u00fdch opc\u00ed a tyto d\u00e1le prozkoum\u00e1vat. Omez\u00edm se v t\u00e9to mo\u017en\u00e9 volb\u011b r\u016fzn\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed ale pouze na jednu z variant, kter\u00e1 by mohla vych\u00e1zet z\u00a0\u00favahy, \u017ee mi nebude vadit po\u0159\u00eddit Ratio Spread<\/strong> s\u00a0vynalo\u017eenou investic\u00ed<\/strong>, nebudu cht\u00edt<\/strong> m\u00edt v\u00edce ne\u017e jednu nekrytou Short opci<\/strong> stejn\u011b, jako u Ratio Spreadu 1:2, budu cht\u00edt dos\u00e1hnou co nejvzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00edho BreakEven bodu<\/strong>. V\u0161echny tyto parametry spl\u0148uje jedna z dal\u0161\u00edch nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00edch mo\u017en\u00fdch variant, a to Ratio Spread 2:3<\/strong>. Ve sv\u00e9 \u00favaze se tedy budu zab\u00fdvat my\u0161lenkou, \u017ee nakoup\u00edm dv\u011b Long opce<\/strong> a sou\u010dasn\u011b prod\u00e1m t\u0159i Short opce<\/strong>. Rozd\u00edly budou patrn\u011b nejl\u00e9pe pozorovateln\u00e9 na p\u0159\u00edkladu s\u00a0akci\u00ed FB a s\u00a0op\u010dn\u00edmi kontrakty s\u00a0expirac\u00ed za 19 dn\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 P\u0159i cen\u011b akcie FB na \u00farovni 140.61 USD, jsem si pro Call Ratio Spread 2:3<\/strong> vybral strike 141<\/strong> a 147<\/strong>. Long Call 141 lze nakoupit na cen\u011b -440 USD a Short Call na strike 147 lze vypsat za +193 USD.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Pokud bych cht\u011bl po\u0159\u00eddit jednoduch\u00fd Call Ratio Spread 1:2<\/strong> +141\/-147\/-147, po\u0159\u00eddil bych jej za investici ve v\u00fd\u0161i -57 USD<\/strong>. Call Bull Spread +141\/-147 m\u00e1 potenci\u00e1l maxim\u00e1ln\u00edho profitu +600 USD, s\u00a0vynalo\u017een\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady ve v\u00fd\u0161i -57 USD je tak tento maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed profit na hodnot\u011b +546 USD<\/strong>. Pokud za\u010dne akcie FB r\u016fst, bude nutno \u0159e\u0161it Short Call 147, kter\u00e1 je nekryt\u00e1 a na toto \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed m\u00e1m +546 USD. M\u016fj „horn\u00ed“ BreakEven bod<\/strong> je (147 (strike Short Call) + 5.46) na hodnot\u011b 152.46 USD<\/strong>. M\u016fj „spodn\u00ed“ BreakEven bod<\/strong> je na \u00farovni, kter\u00e1 mi pokryje alespo\u0148 p\u016fvodn\u00ed investici, tedy Long Call 141 mus\u00ed m\u00edt alespo\u0148 hodnotu (141 (strike Long Call) +0.57), tedy 141.57 USD<\/strong>. Mezi hodnotou obou BreakEven bod\u016f 141.75 USD a\u017e 152.46 USD m\u011b \u010dek\u00e1 jist\u00e1 porce profitu, tento pak m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnotu +546 USD.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Konstrukce Call Ratio Spreadu 2:3<\/strong>\u00a0+141\/+141\/-147\/-147-147 s nakoupen\u00fdmi a vypsan\u00fdmi opcemi ka\u017ed\u00e9 na stejn\u00fdch strike pak vy\u017eaduje op\u011bt vynalo\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f na tuto pozici, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b -301 USD<\/strong>. M\u016fj „spodn\u00ed“ BreakEven bod je na \u00farovni, kter\u00e1 mi pokryje alespo\u0148 p\u016fvodn\u00ed investici, tedy Long Call 141 mus\u00ed m\u00edt alespo\u0148 hodnotu, kter\u00e1 bude pokr\u00fdvat \u010d\u00e1stku -301 USD, m\u00e1m ale tyto Long Call dv\u011b<\/strong>, tak\u017ee „spodn\u00ed“ BreakEven<\/strong> bod<\/strong> bude reprezentov\u00e1n hodnotou strike Long Call 141 a p\u0159i\u010dten\u00edm poloviny vynalo\u017een\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f (301 USD\/2 = 150.50 USD, potom \u010din\u00ed jeho hodnota (141 (strike Long Call) +1.51), tedy 142.51 USD<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Call Ratio Spread 2:3<\/strong> disponuje oproti pom\u011bru 1:2 dv\u011bma Call Bull Spready<\/strong>, ka\u017ed\u00fd s\u00a0maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm mo\u017en\u00fdm profitem +600 USD, tedy celkov\u011b +1.200 USD<\/strong> s\u00a0vynalo\u017een\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady ve v\u00fd\u0161i -301 USD je tak tento maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed profit<\/strong> na hodnot\u011b +899 USD<\/strong>. Pokud za\u010dne akcie FB op\u011bt r\u016fst, bude nutno \u0159e\u0161it, stejn\u011b jako u kombinace 1:2, Short Call 147, kter\u00e1 je nekryt\u00e1 a na toto \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed m\u00e1m +899 USD. M\u016fj „horn\u00ed“ BreakEven bod<\/strong> je (147 (strike Short Call) + 8.99) na hodnot\u011b 155.99 USD<\/strong>. Mezi hodnotou obou BreakEven bod\u016f 142.51 USD a\u017e 155.99 USD m\u011b \u010dek\u00e1 jist\u00e1 porce profitu, tento pak m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnotu +899 USD.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Porovn\u00e1n\u00edm obou p\u00e1sem profit\u016f podle BreakEven bod\u016f pak mohu tuto kombinaci 2:3 jednodu\u0161e vyhodnotit. Spodn\u00ed BreakEven bod je posunut v\u00fd\u0161e z\u00a0hodnoty 141.75 USD na hodnotu 142.51 USD a tento nutn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst tvo\u0159\u00ed pouh\u00fdch +0.5%<\/strong>, abych mohl m\u00edt alespo\u0148 sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze zp\u011bt oproti jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed variant\u011b 1:2. Horn\u00ed BreakEven bod je ale z\u00a0hodnoty 152.46 USD pro nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed Ratio\u00a0 Spread 1:2 posunut a\u017e na hodnotu 155.99 USD, a toto je n\u00e1r\u016fst o velmi slu\u0161n\u00fdch +2.3%<\/strong> k okam\u017eiku, abych za\u010dal prod\u011bl\u00e1vat.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Mohu pak na pozici Call Ratio Spread 2:3 na strike 141 a 147 pohl\u00ed\u017eet tak\u00e9 jako na Call Bull Spread +141\/-147<\/strong> a sou\u010dasn\u011b dr\u017een\u00e9ho \u201emot\u00fdl\u00edho invalidu\u201c Butterfly +141\/-147\/-147\/+153<\/span><\/strong>. kter\u00e9mu zat\u00edm Long Call +153 chyb\u00ed. Proto\u017ee tedy br\u00e1n\u00edm ve sv\u00e9 pozici op\u011bt pouze jednu vypsanou opci a m\u00e1m \u201enedokon\u010den\u00e9ho\u201c Butterfly, jsou m\u00e9 pravidla pro \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed risku tohoto obchodu stejn\u00e1, jako u Ratio Spreadu 1:2, pouze m\u00e1m diametr\u00e1ln\u011b jinde horn\u00ed BreakEven bod.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Koment\u00e1\u0159 re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho obchodu<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Nejplasti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed demonstrac\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed obchodu Ratio Spreadu 2:3 uk\u00e1\u017eu na \u017eiv\u00e9m obchodu, kter\u00fd jsem otev\u0159el na sv\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu minul\u00fd t\u00fdden, abych uk\u00e1zal op\u011bt v\u0161echny mo\u017en\u00e9 nuance, kter\u00e9 mi m\u016f\u017ee realita nab\u00eddnout. P\u0159esto\u017ee je v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdm hazardem obchodovat s technologick\u00fdmi tituly, vybral jsem si pro sv\u016fj obchod akcie AAPL, kter\u00e9 jsou nyn\u00ed na \u201e\u010dern\u00e9 listin\u011b\u201c. V\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bych si je jako svou investici nyn\u00ed nevybral, proto\u017ee ztratily na sv\u00e9 hodnot\u011b za posledn\u00ed dva m\u011bs\u00edce neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch \u0161edes\u00e1t dolar\u016f a budoucnost cenov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje je opravdu nejist\u00e1. Mohu p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee se cena d\u00e1le propadne nebo naopak investo\u0159i vyc\u00edt\u00ed na v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 cen\u011b dobrou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k\u00a0n\u00e1kupu a jej\u00ed cena se m\u016f\u017ee raketov\u011b vy\u0161plhat na b\u00fdval\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b. Je to tedy titul, kter\u00fd by za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch okolnost\u00ed nebyl vhodn\u00fdm kandid\u00e1tem pro m\u016fj obchod, p\u0159esto jsem se rozhodl takto u\u010dinit, abych uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee p\u0159esto\u017ee je vstup do Ratio Spreadu ze za\u010d\u00e1tku investic\u00ed s\u00a0neomezen\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem ztr\u00e1ty na nekryt\u00e9 Short opci a p\u0159esto\u017ee je akcie siln\u011b volatiln\u00ed a nyn\u00ed nevyzpytateln\u00e1, d\u00e1 se obchod velmi dob\u0159e \u0159\u00eddit. Op\u011bt mus\u00edm konstatovat, \u017ee do budoucnosti v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nevid\u00edm a o dal\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvoji ceny akcie se neodva\u017euji v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b spekulovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Den prvn\u00ed \u2013 pond\u011bln\u00ed vstup<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0 Minul\u00e9 pond\u011bl\u00ed (vzhledem k\u00a0dob\u011b, kdy p\u00ed\u0161u tento \u010dl\u00e1nek) jsem se rozhodl vstoupit do Ratio Spreadu 2:3 na akcii AAPL, a to s\u00a0op\u010dn\u00edmi kontrakty na obou stran\u00e1ch op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce s\u00a0expirac\u00ed v\u00a0p\u00e1tek, tedy na weeklys opc\u00edch, kter\u00fdm zb\u00fdvaly do expirace \u010dty\u0159i kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed dny. Na n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e9m obr\u00e1zku je m\u00e1 pozice.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 P\u0159i aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cen\u011b akcie AAPL na \u00farovni 173.71 USD jsem v\u0161echny \u010dty\u0159i<\/strong> Long opce<\/strong> (2x Call a 2x Put) um\u00edstil na stejn\u00fd strike 172.50,<\/strong> abych zachytil jak\u00fdkoliv cenov\u00fd pohyb. Sou\u010dasn\u011b jsem vypsal 2x Short Call<\/strong> a 2x Short Put<\/strong> ve vzd\u00e1lenosti 2.5 bodu<\/strong> \u201emimo pen\u00edze\u201c od nakoupen\u00fdch Long opc\u00ed a t\u0159et\u00ed<\/strong> opce Short Call<\/strong> a Short Put<\/strong> jsem um\u00edstil ve vzd\u00e1lenosti dal\u0161\u00edch 2.5 bodu<\/strong> od bl\u00ed\u017ee vypsan\u00fdch Short opc\u00ed. Celkov\u011b jsem na oba tyto Ratio Spready 2:3 vynalo\u017eil -197.80 USD<\/strong><\/span>. Do pozice jsem tak vstoupil s investic\u00ed, na kterou mi mus\u00ed op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace minim\u00e1ln\u011b vyd\u011blat. Proto\u017ee m\u00e1m na ka\u017ed\u00e9 stran\u011b jednu nekrytou Short opci, mus\u00edm sv\u016fj obchod \u0159\u00eddit tak, abych si nep\u0159ivodil mo\u017enost neomezen\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je TradeLog zachycuj\u00edc\u00ed vstupn\u00ed po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch opc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0 \u00a0N\u00ed\u017ee obr\u00e1zek s\u00a0po\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdmi pozicemi tak, jak je mo\u017en\u00e9 jej vid\u011bt ve v\u00fdpise m\u00e9ho obchodn\u00edho \u00fa\u010dtu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 Vnit\u0159n\u00ed BreakEven body<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 M\u00e1m v\u0161echny Long opce (po dvou na ka\u017ed\u00e9 stran\u011b Call i Put) na stejn\u00e9m strike 172.50. Tyto opce mus\u00ed vyd\u011blat +197.80 USD<\/strong>, abych neutrp\u011bl \u017e\u00e1dnou ztr\u00e1tu a vy\u0161el z\u00a0obchodu bez profitu. Bude tedy sta\u010dit, aby cena ka\u017ed\u00e9 ze dvou Long opc\u00ed m\u011bly hodnotu alespo\u0148 +197.80 USD\/2 = 98.90 USD. Toto se stane v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0A\/<\/strong> cena akcie AAPL bude p\u0159i expiraci na hodnot\u011b strike Long Call 172.50 + 98.90 USD<\/strong>, tedy na cen\u011b 172.50 +0.989 = 173.489 USD<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0B\/<\/strong> cena akcie AAPL bude p\u0159i expiraci na hodnot\u011b strike Long Put 172.50 – 98.90 USD<\/strong>, tedy na cen\u011b 172.50 -0.989 = 171.511 USD<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Hodnoty 171.51<\/strong> USD a 173.49 USD<\/strong> jsou vnit\u0159n\u00edmi BreakEven<\/strong> body<\/strong> m\u00e9 slo\u017een\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed pozice. Pokud se cena bude p\u0159i expiraci nach\u00e1zet uvnit\u0159 tohoto p\u00e1sma, v\u017edy na investici prod\u011bl\u00e1m, proto\u017ee se mi nepoda\u0159\u00ed z\u00edskat zp\u011bt v\u0161echny vynalo\u017een\u00e9 vstupn\u00ed n\u00e1klady, pokud cena z\u016fstane p\u0159esn\u011b na strike Long opc\u00ed (172.50 USD) p\u0159ijdu o celou investici ve v\u00fd\u0161i -197.80 USD. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed BreakEven body<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 M\u00e1m na ka\u017ed\u00e9 stran\u011b op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce v\u017edy dva Vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed Spready<\/strong>, ka\u017ed\u00fd z\u00a0nich m\u00e1 potenci\u00e1l profitu +250 USD, celkem tedy +500 USD<\/strong>. Na Call stran\u011b m\u00e1m 2x Call Bull Spread +172.50\/-175<\/strong> a na Put stran\u011b m\u00e1m 2x Put Bear Spread +172.50\/-170<\/strong>. Na ka\u017ed\u00e9 stran\u011b mohu vyd\u011blat maxim\u00e1ln\u011b (+500 USD m\u00ednus vstupn\u00ed investice 197.80 USD) +302.20 USD<\/strong> v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00fd ze spread\u016f skon\u010d\u00ed cel\u00fd \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c, a toto se stane v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee bude cena nad strike bl\u00ed\u017ee vypsan\u00fdch Short Call 175 nebo v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee cena bude pod strike bl\u00ed\u017ee vypsan\u00fdch Short Put 170. Nic nerealistick\u00e9ho. Radost mi ale kaz\u00ed existence naked (nekryt\u00e9) Short opce na ka\u017ed\u00e9 ze stran op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce, Short Call 177.50 a Short Put 167.50. Pokud bude tedy cena r\u016fst nebo klesat tak, \u017ee zas\u00e1hne n\u011bkter\u00fd z\u00a0t\u011bchto strike nekryt\u00fdch opc\u00ed, budu je muset likvidovat nebo n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem \u0159e\u0161it. K\u00a0tomuto \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed ale budu m\u00edt k\u00a0dispozici vygenerovan\u00fd profit na Vertik\u00e1ln\u00edch Spreadech, kter\u00fd jsem vypo\u010d\u00edtal na hodnotu +302.20. S p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k\u00a0tomuto \u201ebonusu\u201c pak mohu konstatovat, \u017ee pokud:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 A\/<\/strong> cena akcie APPL zas\u00e1hne cenu vypo\u010dtenou jako strike v\u00fd\u0161e vypsan\u00e9 Short Call 177.50 +302.20 USD<\/strong> profitu, bude tato cena vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm BreakEven bodem<\/strong> a bude m\u00edt hodnotu (177.50 +3.02 USD) 180.52 USD<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 B\/<\/strong> cena akcie APPL zas\u00e1hne cenu vypo\u010dtenou jako strike n\u00ed\u017ee vypsan\u00e9 Short Put 167.50 -302.20 USD<\/strong> profitu, bude tato cena vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm BreakEven bodem<\/strong> a bude m\u00edt hodnotu (167.50 -3.02 USD) 164.48 USD.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Proto\u017ee p\u00e1smo 171.51 USD \u2013 173.49 USD vymezen\u00e9 \u201evnit\u0159n\u00edmi\u201c BreakEven body p\u0159edstavuje riziko, \u017ee p\u0159ijdu pouze o \u010d\u00e1st vlo\u017een\u00e9 investice, tedy omezen\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, nebudu se v\u016f\u010di takov\u00e9mu riziku zaji\u0161\u0165ovat. Cenov\u00e9 pohyby pod 164.48 USD a nad 180.52 USD, p\u0159edstavuj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u016fraz BreakEven bod\u016f, budou ale p\u0159edstavovat ohro\u017een\u00ed m\u00e9 pozice ve form\u011b mo\u017enosti neomezen\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, zam\u011b\u0159\u00edm svou pozornost jednozna\u010dn\u011b na ochranu t\u011bchto mezn\u00edch bod\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pravd\u011bpodobnosti<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 S\u00a0odkazem na \u0159\u00e1dky v\u00fd\u0161e jsem pro vypo\u010dten\u00e9 vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed BreakEven body na \u00farovn\u00edch 164.48 USD a 180.52 USD vyzna\u010dil v\u00a0obr\u00e1zku se vstupn\u00ed konstelac\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161e hn\u011bd\u00fdmi obd\u00e9ln\u00edky hodnotu Delta<\/strong> a hodnotou SD<\/strong>. Jedn\u00e1 se o nejbl\u00ed\u017ee ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed strike Call 180 (BreakEven bod v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b r\u016fstu le\u017e\u00ed nad n\u00edm) a nejbl\u00ed\u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed strike Put 165 (BreakEven bod v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b poklesu le\u017e\u00ed pod n\u00edm). Mohu pak konstatovat, \u017ee v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b poklesu je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 podle Delta<\/strong>, \u017ee s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 13.70%<\/strong>\u00a0nastane takov\u00fd pokles, kter\u00fd by prorazil strike 165 a naopak, \u017ee v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b r\u016fstu je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 podle Delta<\/strong>, \u017ee s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 18.60%<\/strong>\u00a0nastane takov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst, kter\u00fd by prorazil strike 180. Pravd\u011bpodobnost r\u016fstu a ohro\u017een\u00ed pozice je na Call stran\u011b podle Delta vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Pokud bych pou\u017eil \u00fadaje o SD, kter\u00e9 mi nab\u00edz\u00ed platforma TWS, tak u strike 180 bych mohl ode\u010d\u00edst hodnotu pravd\u011bpodobnosti pohybu vyj\u00e1d\u0159enou 0.9 SD<\/strong> a u strike 165 pravd\u011bpodobnosti pohybu vyj\u00e1d\u0159enou 1.2 SD<\/strong>. P\u0159evedeno do procentn\u00edho vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed by pak mohlo vypadat, jako na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0 Hodnota pravd\u011bpodobnosti podle SD<\/strong> mi pak \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 18.41%<\/strong>\u00a0nastane takov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst, kter\u00fd by prorazil strike 180 a s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 11.51%<\/strong>\u00a0nastane takov\u00fd pokles, kter\u00fd by prorazil strike 165. Pravd\u011bpodobnost r\u016fstu je tak podle interpretace pomoc\u00ed SD vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Existence vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch BreakEven bod\u016f a poznan\u00e1 struktura m\u00e9 pozice (Vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed Spread a \u201eMot\u00fdl\u00ed invalida\u201c) p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 stejn\u00fd postup p\u0159i zaji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed pozice jako v\u00a0minul\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/a><\/span><\/strong>, kdy jsem popisoval konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed obchod Ratio Spreadu 1:2 na podkladu\u00a0ES futures. Existence Short op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f na ka\u017ed\u00e9 stran\u011b op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce (Short Call 177.50 a Short Put 167.50) pak bude op\u011bt \u0159e\u0161ena snahou dotvo\u0159en\u00ed do Butterflies (Call nebo Put), pokud budou pro toto vhodn\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky nebo p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm po\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm podkladu jako alternativou v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se cena zna\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed ke strike nekryt\u00fdch opc\u00ed a kdy po\u0159\u00eddit vhodn\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed kontrakty za vhodnou cenu do Butterfly ji\u017e nebude mo\u017en\u00e9. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je cel\u00e1 pozice vyobrazena na samostatn\u00e9 z\u00e1lo\u017ece obchodn\u00ed platformy TWS.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0\u00a0 1\/<\/strong> V\u00a0\u0159\u00e1dku s\u00a0akciemi AAPL jsem vytvo\u0159il dva podm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edkazy MARKET stejn\u011b jako v\u00a0minul\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku, kter\u00fdmi chci po\u0159\u00eddit 100 akci\u00ed<\/strong> v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee bude dosa\u017eeno ur\u010dit\u00e9 ceny. Horn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1dek reprezentuje GTC (dokud jej nezru\u0161\u00edm nebo nebude vypln\u011bn) podm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkaz na n\u00e1kup 100x Long akci\u00ed AAPL v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee cena proraz\u00ed hodnotu 180 USD a proto\u017ee je m\u016fj horn\u00ed vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed BreakEven bod na hodnot\u011b 180.52 USD, bude to znamenat rezervu +52 USD, pokud ji\u017e nebudu d\u011blat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed kroky a nyn\u00ed ji\u017e kryt\u00e1 Short Call 177.50<\/strong> spolu s\u00a0nakoupen\u00fdmi 100x Long akciemi<\/strong> skon\u010d\u00ed \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c<\/strong>. Spodn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1dek reprezentuje GTC (dokud jej nezru\u0161\u00edm nebo nebude vypln\u011bn) podm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkaz na prodej 100x Short akci\u00ed AAPL v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee cena proraz\u00ed hodnotu 165 USD a proto\u017ee je m\u016fj doln\u00ed vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed BreakEven bod na hodnot\u011b 164.48 USD, bude to znamenat op\u011bt rezervu +52 USD, pokud ji\u017e nebudu d\u011blat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed kroky a nyn\u00ed ji\u017e kryt\u00e1 Short Put 167.50<\/strong> spolu s\u00a0po\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdmi 100x Short akciemi<\/strong> skon\u010d\u00ed \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 2\/<\/strong> Zad\u00e1n\u00edm GTC (dokud jej nezru\u0161\u00edm nebo nebude vypln\u011bn) p\u0159\u00edkazu na n\u00e1kup Long Put<\/strong> op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu na strike 165 za 10 USD se sna\u017e\u00edm, v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pohybu ceny akcie AAPL do strany, vytvo\u0159it na Put stran\u011b Put Butterfly +172.50\/-170\/-167.50\/+165<\/strong>, potom bych ji\u017e byl v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jak\u00e9hokoliv poklesu na t\u00e9to Put stran\u011b pln\u011b chr\u00e1n\u011bn.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 3\/<\/strong> Zad\u00e1n\u00edm GTC (dokud jej nezru\u0161\u00edm nebo nebude vypln\u011bn) p\u0159\u00edkazu na n\u00e1kup Long Call<\/strong> op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu na strike 180 za 10 USD se sna\u017e\u00edm, v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pohybu ceny akcie AAPL do strany, vytvo\u0159it na Call stran\u011b Call Butterfly +172.50\/-175\/-177.50\/+180<\/strong>, potom bych ji\u017e byl v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jak\u00e9hokoliv n\u00e1r\u016fstu tak\u00e9 na t\u00e9to Call stran\u011b pln\u011b chr\u00e1n\u011bn.<\/span><\/p>\n

Den druh\u00fd \u2013 nic se ned\u011bje<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Po pond\u011bln\u00edm po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed op\u010dn\u00ed pozice Call a Put Ratio Spread\u016f 2:3 s\u00a0vytvo\u0159en\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkaz\u016f z\u00a0n\u00e1kupu zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nep\u0159ineslo \u00fater\u00fd \u017e\u00e1dnou obchodn\u00ed ud\u00e1lost na m\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu, kter\u00e1 by znamenala \u00fapravu nebo transformaci m\u00e9 pozice. Cena akcie APL se n\u011bjak dramaticky nevyv\u00edjela a nezp\u016fsobila p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed se k\u00a0BreakEven bod\u016fm, ani p\u016fsoben\u00ed \u010dasu nezp\u016fsobovalo slevu na vzd\u00e1len\u00fdch op\u010dn\u00edch kontraktech, kter\u00e9 jsem m\u011bl v\u00a0\u00famyslu nakoupit a dotvo\u0159it tak Butterfly alespo\u0148 na n\u011bkter\u00e9 ze stran m\u00e9 pozice<\/span><\/p>\n

Den t\u0159et\u00ed \u2013 n\u00e1kup Long Put a Long akci\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 St\u0159eda znamenala pro mou op\u010dn\u00ed kombinaci velmi aktivn\u00ed den. Cena akcie AAPL za\u010dala\u00a0 posilovat ji\u017e v\u00a0premarketu a ihned po Open trh\u016f jsem mohl pozorovat, \u017ee cena Long Put 165 ji\u017e vydatn\u011b ztratila na sv\u00e9 hodnot\u011b a vyhovovala parametr\u016fm m\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edkazu na n\u00e1kup<\/strong> t\u00e9to Long Put 165<\/strong> opce. Tuto jsem na sv\u016fj \u00fa\u010det po\u0159\u00eddil za po\u017eadovan\u00fdch 10 USD + komise. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je vid\u011bt tato pozice<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0 Touto transakc\u00ed jsem se zcela zajistil na Put stran\u011b. M\u00e1m nyn\u00ed Put Bear Spread +172.50\/-175<\/strong> a Put Butterfly -172.50\/-170\/-167.50\/+165<\/strong>. Ob\u011b strategie mohou ztratit pouze n\u00e1klady, kter\u00e9 jsem na n\u011b vynalo\u017eil a tyto nyn\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stku p\u016fvodn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f -197.80 USD a n\u00e1klad\u016f na n\u00e1kup Long Put 165 ve v\u00fd\u0161i 10.79 USD, tedy n\u00e1klady<\/strong> \u010din\u00ed celkov\u011b –208.59 USD<\/strong><\/span>. Proto\u017ee se realizoval p\u0159\u00edkaz na n\u00e1kup Long Put 165, zru\u0161il jsem<\/strong> tak\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edkaz na n\u00e1kup 100x Short akci\u00ed AAPL<\/strong>, proto\u017ee by ji\u017e postr\u00e1dal jak\u00fdkoliv smysl. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee obr\u00e1zek ze zbyl\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edkazy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Pod \u010d\u00edsly (1)<\/strong> a (2)<\/strong> jsou ji\u017e jen zbyl\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edkazy, kter\u00e9 chr\u00e1n\u00ed Call stranu, tedy n\u00e1kup 100x Long akci\u00ed (1) nebo Long Call 180 opce do Call Butterfly (2).<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee obr\u00e1zek TradeLog z\u00a0platformy TWS o t\u00e9to op\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1kupn\u00ed ud\u00e1losti<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Stejnou ud\u00e1lost samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zachytil tak\u00e9 m\u016fj obchodn\u00ed \u00fa\u010det<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 To ale nebylo ve st\u0159edu v\u0161e, proto\u017ee cena akcie celkem svi\u017en\u011b rostla, aby v\u00a0odpoledn\u00ed f\u00e1zi americk\u00e9ho \u010dasu zas\u00e1hla cenu 180 USD<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 aktivovala podm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkaz<\/strong> na n\u00e1kup 100x Long akci\u00ed AAPL<\/strong>. Akcie byly po\u0159\u00edzeny okam\u017eit\u011b na m\u016fj \u00fa\u010det a tato skute\u010dnost je viditeln\u00e1 v\u00a0platform\u011b TWS. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Na Call stran\u011b jsem tak nepo\u0159\u00eddil Call Butterfly, ale svou nekrytou Short Call 177.50<\/strong> jsem zajistil n\u00e1kupem 100x Long akci\u00ed AAPL<\/strong> za cenu 180 USD\/kus. M\u00e1m tak na Call stran\u011b 2x Call Bull Spread +172.50\/-175<\/strong> s\u00a0maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm potenci\u00e1lem profitu +250 USD ka\u017ed\u00fd, tedy +500 USD<\/strong>\u00a0a Covered Call<\/strong> (Short Call 177.50 + 100x Long akcie AAPL). Po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed podkladu nam\u00edsto opce dotv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00edc\u00ed Butterfly je v\u017edy ta hor\u0161\u00ed varianta, proto\u017ee ji ohro\u017euje n\u00e1sledn\u011b mo\u017en\u00fd obrat cenov\u00e9ho trendu. Nyn\u00ed tak mohu po\u010d\u00edtat pouze s\u00a0m\u00edrn\u00fdmi profity nebo m\u00edrnou ztr\u00e1tou. Pravd\u011bpodobnosti ur\u010den\u00e9 p\u0159i vstupu do pozice pomoc\u00ed Delta a SD se tak naplnily, p\u0159esto\u017ee pravd\u011bpodobnost nebyla vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 20% a tak\u00e9 se potvrdila v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost r\u016fstu na Call stran\u011b. Tuto situaci ale nemohu v\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ovlivnit, a proto se mus\u00edm soust\u0159edit pouze na jedin\u00e9, co ovlivnit mohu, a t\u00edm je celkov\u00fd risk m\u00e9 pozice. TradeLog zobrazuj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1kup 100x Long akcii AAPL na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0 Stejn\u00e1 transakce pak byla zaznamen\u00e1na tak\u00e9 na m\u00e9m obchodn\u00edm \u00fa\u010dtu<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00e1kup 100x Long akci\u00ed pak znamen\u00e1 zru\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edkazu<\/strong> na n\u00e1kup Long Call 180<\/strong>, kterou bych dotvo\u0159il Call Butterfly, m\u00e1m ji\u017e ale nyn\u00ed tuto pozici krytou akciemi, tak\u017ee jsem tento p\u0159\u00edkaz zru\u0161il. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je tak vid\u011bt sum\u00e1\u0159 v\u0161eho, co se mi u podkladu AAPL vytvo\u0159ilo, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edkazy ji\u017e zad\u00e1ny nem\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Oba Call Bull Spready mohu nyn\u00ed pustit z\u00a0hlavy a m\u00e1 pozornost<\/strong> by se m\u011bla up\u0159\u00edt na Covered Call<\/strong>, tedy Short Call 177.50 + 100x Long akcie AAPL. Tento Covered Call nen\u00ed bez rizika a jeliko\u017e jsem vyzbrojen znalostmi o Syntetick\u00fdch op\u010dn\u00edch pozic\u00edch<\/a><\/strong><\/span>, tak v\u00edm, \u017ee Covered Call<\/strong> je to sam\u00e9<\/strong> jako Short Put<\/strong>, a to tak\u00e9 znamen\u00e1 neomezenou mo\u017enost ztr\u00e1ty v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee cena podkladu bude prudce klesat. S\u00a0touto my\u0161lenkou jsem se p\u0159esunul do posledn\u00edch dvou obchodn\u00edch dn\u016f. Pouze pro z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dnou finan\u010dn\u00ed rekapitulaci tohoto dne konstatuji, \u017ee jsem k\u00a0n\u00e1klad\u016fm ve v\u00fd\u0161i -208.59 USD p\u0159idal n\u00e1klady na n\u00e1kup 100x Long akci\u00ed za 180 USD\/kus + 0.68 USD poplatek, moje celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady<\/strong> pak nyn\u00ed \u010din\u00ed -18.209.27 USD<\/strong><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Den \u010dtvrt\u00fd \u2013 nic se ned\u011bje<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 \u010ctvrtek nep\u0159inesl \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed ud\u00e1losti na akcii AAPL, kter\u00e1 setrv\u00e1vala v\u00a0m\u00edrn\u00e9m uptrendu a zanech\u00e1vala tak mou op\u010dn\u00ed pozici, kterou prozat\u00edm zat\u011b\u017euji n\u00e1klady ve v\u00fd\u0161i -18.209.27 USD,<\/strong> bez v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zm\u011bn, \u010dtvrte\u010dn\u00ed Last bylo na hodnot\u011b 179.55 USD. Mohu si tak v\u00a0tento \u201eoddechov\u00fd den\u201c dop\u0159\u00e1t m\u00edrn\u00e9 rekapitulace sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu. Put stranu m\u00e1m o\u0161et\u0159enu a osud Put opc\u00ed m\u011b te\u010f p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nezaj\u00edm\u00e1. P\u0159i cen\u011b akcie AAPL p\u0159i uzav\u0159en\u00ed obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0tento den na \u00farovni 179.55 USD mohu p\u0159i existenci 2x Call Bull Spreadu +172.50\/-175 po\u010d\u00edtat z +500 USD<\/strong> profitu, kter\u00fd by mi m\u011bly p\u0159in\u00e9st, pokud p\u0159i z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed p\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed expiraci z\u016fstanou, stejn\u011b jako dnes, \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c. T\u00edmto bych zredukoval m\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na (-18.209.27 USD +500 USD) na \u010d\u00e1stku –17.709.27 USD<\/strong><\/span>. M\u00e1 Short Call 177.50 a 100x Long akci\u00ed AAPL nyn\u00ed p\u0159i aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed uzav\u00edrac\u00ed cen\u011b 179.55 USD znamen\u00e1, \u017ee tato Short opce je siln\u011b \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c a pokud se takto stane tak\u00e9 u z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed expirace, bude „p\u0159\u00edjemn\u011b“ Assigned (p\u0159i\u0159azena) a j\u00e1 budu muset (miler\u00e1d) dodat dr\u017eiteli t\u00e9to opce 100x Long akci\u00ed za cenu strike 177.50 USD\/kus. Pokud se tento dobr\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 napln\u00ed, obdr\u017e\u00edm za takto dodan\u00e9 akcie, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1m na sv\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu, \u010d\u00e1stku +17.750 USD. Pokud tyto pen\u00edze p\u0159id\u00e1m ke sv\u00fdm dosavadn\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm, bude m\u00e1 celkov\u00e1 bilance (-17.709.27 USD + 17.750 USD) znamenat +40.73 USD profit. M\u00e1 jedin\u00e1 starost pro n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed expira\u010dn\u00ed p\u00e1tek je pak ta, abych se opravdu zbavil sv\u00fdch 100x Long akci\u00ed<\/strong>\u00a0procedurou p\u0159i\u0159azen\u00ed Short Call 177.50<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Den p\u00e1t\u00fd \u2013 expirace<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 P\u00e1tek, jako posledn\u00ed den dr\u017een\u00ed m\u00e9 pozice Ratio Spread\u016f 2:3 na obou stran\u00e1ch op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce, p\u0159inesl velmi volatiln\u00ed pohyby, kter\u00e9 si nesnesly odkladu jejich \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. P\u0159esto\u017ee akcie AAPL ve \u010dtvrtek uzav\u0159ela na velmi slu\u0161n\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 cen\u011b ve vztahu k\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9mu p\u0159i\u0159azen\u00ed na Short Call 177.50, ihned po Open jej\u00ed cena za\u010dala padat a p\u0159ibli\u017eovat se ke strike m\u00e9 Short Call 177.50 a ohro\u017eovat tak \u201eo\u010dek\u00e1vanou ud\u00e1lost\u201c jej\u00edho p\u0159i\u0159azen\u00ed. Proto\u017ee nem\u00e1m takovou nejistotu r\u00e1d a rad\u011bji p\u0159ijmu jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed<\/strong> za cenu mal\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty<\/strong>, zadal jsem do sv\u00e9 platformy p\u0159\u00edkaz na n\u00e1kup Long Put<\/strong> na strike 177.50<\/strong> v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se cena akcie AAPL p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed na vzd\u00e1lenost 25 cent\u016f<\/strong> od tohoto strike, tedy na cenu 177.75 USD. Tento okam\u017eik nastal ve chv\u00edli, kter\u00e1 je vyzna\u010dena v\u00a0grafu n\u00ed\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 N\u00e1kup Long Put 177.50\u00a0<\/strong>mi zajistil, \u017ee jsem vytvo\u0159il spole\u010dn\u011b se\u00a0Short Call 177.50<\/strong> a 100x Long akciemi<\/strong>\u00a0op\u010dn\u00ed kombinaci Conversion<\/strong> a zajistil jsem si, \u017ee se p\u0159i dne\u0161n\u00ed expiraci zbav\u00edm akci\u00ed za cenu 177.50 USD\/kus. Bu\u010f bude Short Call 177.50 p\u0159i\u0159azena nebo Long Put 177.50 uplatn\u011bna, v\u017edy budu prod\u00e1vat sv\u00e9 akcie za cenu strike 177.50 USD\/kus a v\u017edy obdr\u017e\u00edm +17.750 USD tak, jak jsem tuto situaci v\u00fd\u0161e rekapituloval. Z\u00a0obr\u00e1zku grafu p\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edho cenov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje v\u00fd\u0161e vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159esto\u017ee se cena akcie AAPL po vytvo\u0159en\u00ed Conversion zotavila, tak tak\u00e9 dvakr\u00e1t padla zp\u011bt pod strike 177.50, tak\u017ee vytvo\u0159en\u00ed Conversion bylo velice obez\u0159etn\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je obr\u00e1zek takto vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 Conversion z platformy TWS.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\" \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Je tak zejm\u00e9na patrn\u00e9, \u017ee jsem Long Put 177.50 po\u0159\u00eddil za -61.09 USD<\/strong>. Tyto n\u00e1klady pak mus\u00edm p\u0159ipo\u010d\u00edtat k\u00a0m\u00fdm dosavadn\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm p\u0159ed expirac\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i -17.709.27 USD, abych tyto celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady nov\u011b vy\u010d\u00edslil na (-17.709.27 USD -61.09 USD) \u010d\u00e1stku -17.770.36 USD<\/strong><\/span>. Obr\u00e1zek z TradeLog s\u00a0n\u00e1kupem Long Put 177.50 do Conversion n\u00ed\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0 Stejn\u00e1 transakce je pak zachycena tak\u00e9 na m\u00e9m obchodn\u00edm \u00fa\u010dtu u m\u00e9ho brokera.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Proto\u017ee z\u00a0grafu o pr\u016fb\u011bhu v\u00fdvoje ceny akcie AAPL v\u00a0expira\u010dn\u00ed p\u00e1tek vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee se nic dramatick\u00e9ho nestalo, mohl jsem klidn\u011b p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eet bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se expiraci. Proveden\u00edm poexpira\u010dn\u00edch transakc\u00ed do\u0161lo k\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdm ud\u00e1lostem vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed a j\u00e1 mohl cel\u00fd obchod rekapitulovat. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je TradeLog zachycuj\u00edc\u00ed vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1vac\u00ed transakce na m\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu po p\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed expiraci.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Z\u00a0obr\u00e1zku je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee v\u0161echny Put opce vypr\u0161ely jako bezcenn\u00e9 a v\u0161echny Call opce byly \u201ev pen\u011bz\u00edch\u201c. \u010c\u00edslem (1) <\/strong>je ozna\u010deno automatick\u00e9 Exercise<\/strong> dvou Long Call 172.50, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ivodilo n\u00e1kup 200 Long akci\u00ed<\/strong> za cenu strike 172.50 USD\/kus. \u010c\u00edslem (2)<\/strong> je zobrazeno automatick\u00e9 Assigned<\/strong> dvou Short Call 175, kter\u00e9 zp\u016fsobilo prodej 200 Long akci<\/strong> za cenu strike 175 USD\/kus. Tyto dv\u011b transakce pak znamenaj\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161e popisovan\u00e9 zbaven\u00ed se 2x Call Bull Spreadu +172.50\/-175 za maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd profit +500 USD, tyto transakce jsou toho d\u016fkazem.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 \u010c\u00edslem (3)<\/strong> je zobrazeno automatick\u00e9 Assigned<\/strong> Short Call 177.50, kter\u00e9 zp\u016fsobilo prodej 100x Long akci\u00ed<\/strong> za cenu strike 177.50 USD\/kus, a to je pr\u00e1v\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 zbaven\u00ed se d\u0159\u00edve nakoupen\u00fdch 100x Long akci\u00ed nakoupen\u00fdch jako hedge m\u00e9ho Call Ratio Spreadu 2:3, tedy akci\u00ed, kter\u00e9 byly n\u00e1sledn\u011b sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Conversion. Za tuto posledn\u00ed transakci jsem obdr\u017eel<\/strong> k\u00fd\u017een\u00fdch +17.750 USD<\/strong>. Proto\u017ee jsou m\u00e9 kone\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady -17.770.36 USD<\/strong><\/span>, mohu po celkov\u00e9 rekapitulaci po expiraci k\u00a0t\u011bmto n\u00e1klad\u016fm p\u0159ipo\u010d\u00edtat tr\u017ebu za p\u0159i\u0159azen\u00edm prodan\u00e9 akcie, abych mohl konstatovat, \u017ee jsem celkov\u011b (-17.770.36 USD + 17.750 USD) utr\u017eil ztr\u00e1tu -20.36 USD<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0Tyto transakce v zachycen\u00ed na m\u00e9m obchodn\u00edm \u00fa\u010dtu, nejd\u0159\u00edve pro op\u010dn\u00ed kontrakty, kter\u00e9 v\u0161echny p\u0159i expiraci zmizely<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0Na obchodn\u00edm \u00fa\u010dtu byly tak\u00e9 zachyceny operace s p\u0159i\u0159azen\u00fdmi a uplatn\u011bn\u00fdmi akciemi.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0V \u010derven\u00e9m obd\u00e9ln\u00edku je vyzna\u010dena existence 100x Short akci\u00ed po procesech Exercise a Assignment, tyto Short akcie pak pln\u011b kompenzuj\u00ed ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve nakoupen\u00e9 100x Long akcie, kter\u00e9 byly sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Conversion.<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0 \u00a0Co na to \u0159\u00edct? P\u0159esto\u017ee jsem vstupoval do pozice s\u00a0investic\u00ed -197.80 USD na podkladov\u00e9 akcii, kde jsem mohl rozumn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1vat v\u00fdrazn\u00fd pohyb, kter\u00fd se nakonec potvrdil a zp\u016fsobil pr\u016fraz BreakEven bodu, p\u0159esto\u017ee cena akcie za dr\u017een\u00ed op\u010dn\u00edho obchodu ud\u011blala n\u011bkolik cenov\u00fdch obrat\u016f, p\u0159esto\u017ee jsem investoval do obrany pozice vynalo\u017een\u00edm dal\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f, p\u0159esto jsem utrp\u011bl pouze dvacetidolarovou ztr\u00e1tu, a to je skv\u011bl\u00fd v\u00fdsledek.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0Uk\u00e1zka takto \u201enepoveden\u00e9ho\u201c obchodu m\u00e1 do sebe v\u00edce, ne\u017e uk\u00e1zka p\u0159edpisov\u00e9ho obchodu s\u00a0impozantn\u00edm profitem. To bylo smyslem t\u00e9to demonstrace. Rozumn\u00fd obchodn\u00edk toti\u017e pochop\u00ed, \u017ee nevyveden\u00fd obchod s\u00a0dvacetidolarovou ztr\u00e1tou bude patrn\u011b vykompenzov\u00e1n obchody, kter\u00e9 se povedou a vyk\u00e1\u017eou mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed profit, ne\u017e je tato mal\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta, proto\u017ee tyto typy obchod\u016f jednodu\u0161e takov\u00fd potenci\u00e1l maj\u00ed. Tento m\u016fj m\u011bl potenci\u00e1l profitu +302.20 USD. Pokud se budu dr\u017eet racion\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1sad ochrany pozice p\u0159ed mo\u017enou ztr\u00e1tou a vypozoruji v\u0161emo\u017en\u00e9 nuance podobn\u011b sestaven\u00fdch obchod\u016f, mohu si vytvo\u0159it slu\u0161n\u00fd obchodn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l s\u00a0p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm pom\u011brem riziko\/zisk :c)<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0minul\u00fdch dvou \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch jsem se zab\u00fdval existenc\u00ed Ratio Spread\u016f s\u00a0po\u0159\u00edzenou Long opc\u00ed za sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dvou Short op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f. Tento nestejn\u00fd po\u010det sou\u010dasn\u011b po\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch opc\u00ed se stejnou expirac\u00ed pak generoval ur\u010dit\u00e9 vlastnosti takov\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace a z\u00a0n\u00ed vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed nutnost jej\u00edmu dokonal\u00e9mu porozum\u011bn\u00ed a ostra\u017eitosti p\u0159i p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9m obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Tyto n\u00e1strahy Continue Reading<\/i><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2696,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4],"tags":[49,13,50],"class_list":["post-2654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opcni-kombinace","tag-butterfly","tag-call-bull-spread","tag-ratio-spread"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/main-1.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8zd8A-GO","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2741,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=2741","url_meta":{"origin":2654,"position":0},"title":"Back Spread – I.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"29.12.2018","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Kamar\u00e1dstv\u00ed s\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm pot\u00ed\u017eistou ze t\u0159\u00eddy je z\u00e1rukou neobvykl\u00fdch z\u00e1\u017eitk\u016f a vy\u017eaduje vyskytovat se v\u017edy tam, kde by mohly b\u00fdt k dispozici vypjat\u00e9 situace a kdy \u201eo n\u011bco p\u016fjde\u201c. Pokud pot\u0159ebuji ke sv\u00e9mu \u017eivotu akci a jsem p\u0159\u00edznivcem vyplavov\u00e1n\u00ed adrenalinu do krevn\u00edho \u0159e\u010di\u0161t\u011b, nem\u011bla by m\u011b nechat op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace Back\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed kombinace\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=4"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/main-3.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/main-3.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/main-3.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/main-3.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2590,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=2590","url_meta":{"origin":2654,"position":1},"title":"Ratio Spread \u2013 II.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"17.11.2018","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 V\u00a0minul\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku\u00a0jsem se pokou\u0161el objasnit z\u00e1klady op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace s\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem vypsan\u00fdch opc\u00ed ne\u017e opc\u00ed nakoupen\u00fdch, pro tento jin\u00fd pom\u011br se pak tato op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace naz\u00fdv\u00e1 Ratio Spread. Sou\u010dasn\u011b jsem upozornil, \u017ee je to strategie s\u00a0neomezen\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem ztr\u00e1ty, tak\u017ee krom\u011b dokonal\u00e9ho pochopen\u00ed princip\u016f chov\u00e1n\u00ed cel\u00fdch kombinac\u00ed je nutn\u00e9 tak\u00e9 v\u011bd\u011bt,\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed kombinace\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=4"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/main.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/main.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/main.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/main.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2563,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=2563","url_meta":{"origin":2654,"position":2},"title":"Ratio Spread – I.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"2.11.2018","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Pozn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdhod a nev\u00fdhod op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace Butterfly a jej\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed podle minul\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f m\u016f\u017ee leckomu p\u0159ij\u00edt nez\u00e1bavn\u00e9 a m\u00e1lo ak\u010dn\u00ed, p\u0159esto\u017ee je doprov\u00e1zeno mo\u017enost\u00ed m\u00edt p\u0159edem jasn\u011b definovanou mo\u017enost ztr\u00e1ty k\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9mu maxim\u00e1ln\u00edmu profitu. Stejn\u00fd pocit pak m\u016f\u017ee nastat p\u0159i obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed Call Bull Spread\u016f nebo Put Bear Spread\u016f, kter\u00e9\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed kombinace\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=4"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/maim.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/maim.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/maim.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/maim.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2515,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=2515","url_meta":{"origin":2654,"position":3},"title":"Butterfly – I.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"17.10.2018","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0 Pochopen\u00ed principu Call Bull Spreadu, kde maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1tou je vlo\u017een\u00e1 investice s\u00a0maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm potenci\u00e1lem profitu ve v\u00fd\u0161i dolarov\u00e9ho vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed rozsahu strike a sou\u010dasn\u011b porozum\u011bn\u00ed logice Call Bear Spreadu, kde maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1tou je dolarov\u00e9 vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed rozsahu strike a maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm profitem v\u00fdsledek vstupn\u00ed investice \u2013 p\u0159ijat\u00fd kredit, je z\u00e1kladem k\u00a0pochopen\u00ed slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed op\u010dn\u00ed\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed kombinace\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=4"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/main-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/main-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/main-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/main-1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":81,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=81","url_meta":{"origin":2654,"position":4},"title":"Call Bull Spread","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"31.3.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0 Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace. Pokud bych \u010derpal z\u00a0ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch diskuz\u00ed trader\u016f nebo odvozoval ze sv\u00fdch tradingov\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed s\u00a0jin\u00fdmi obchodn\u00edky, je opravdu s\u00a0podivem, jak je takov\u00e1 oby\u010dejn\u00e1 a nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eena. Podstatou takov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed strategie je po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed opc\u00ed Long Call na ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm strike a Short Call na vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm strike \u00a0\u00a0 Na\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed kombinace\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=4"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Bull-WP-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Bull-WP-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Bull-WP-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Bull-WP-1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Bull-WP-1.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/Bull-WP-1.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2534,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=2534","url_meta":{"origin":2654,"position":5},"title":"Butterfly – II.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"21.10.2018","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Pokud by se m\u011b v\u0161echny z\u00e1kladn\u00ed a nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed op\u010dn\u00ed strategie zeptaly \u201eKter\u00e1 z\u00a0n\u00e1s je nejkr\u00e1sn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed?\u201c, odpov\u011bd\u011bl bych bez mrknut\u00ed oka \u201eButterfly\u201c. Proto\u017ee ale obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed nen\u00ed poh\u00e1dka o Sn\u011bhurce, musel jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed o poutavosti t\u00e9to op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b n\u011bkde z\u00edskat. Kr\u00e1sa a u\u017eite\u010dnost toti\u017e nemus\u00ed j\u00edt ruku v\u00a0ruce, ba naopak,\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed kombinace\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed kombinace","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=4"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/main-2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/main-2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/main-2.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/main-2.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2654"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2654\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5905,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2654\/revisions\/5905"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2696"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}