{"id":2109,"date":"2018-06-17T14:52:15","date_gmt":"2018-06-17T12:52:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=2109"},"modified":"2021-10-05T07:31:40","modified_gmt":"2021-10-05T05:31:40","slug":"volatilita-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=2109","title":{"rendered":"Volatilita a Cenov\u00fd pohyb &#8211; I."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 \u00a0Na\u010derpan\u00e9 poznatky z\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku <a href=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=245\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>Cena opce<\/strong><\/span><\/a>\u00a0mi sd\u011bluj\u00ed, \u017ee ji\u017e v\u00edm, z\u00a0\u010deho je slo\u017een v\u00fdpo\u010det ceny op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu, respektive, kter\u00e9 hodnoty do tohoto v\u00fdpo\u010dtu vstupuj\u00ed. Tak ji\u017e v\u00edm, \u017ee <strong>Hodnota Strike<\/strong>, <strong>D\u00e9lka \u017eivota op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu<\/strong>, vypl\u00e1cen\u00e1 <strong>Dividenda<\/strong> a moment\u00e1ln\u00ed <strong>\u00darokov\u00e1 m\u00edra<\/strong> jsou hodnoty, kter\u00e9 mohu p\u0159esn\u011b kvantifikovat a kter\u00e9 tvo\u0159\u00ed \u201epoznatelnou\u201c \u010d\u00e1st v\u00fdpo\u010dtu konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed op\u010dn\u00ed ceny, toto plat\u00ed tak\u00e9 pro modelov\u00e1n\u00ed op\u010dn\u00ed ceny do budoucnosti. Jednodu\u0161e jsem schopen pro ka\u017ed\u00fd budouc\u00ed moment p\u0159esn\u011b stanovit, pro ka\u017edou z\u00a0t\u011bchto uveden\u00fdch komponent jej\u00ed p\u0159esnou hodnotu. Tato p\u0159esn\u00e1 matematick\u00e1 predikce se v\u0161ak net\u00fdk\u00e1 budouc\u00ed <strong>Ceny podkladu<\/strong> a <strong>Implied Volatility<\/strong>, zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch dvou cenotvorn\u00fdch slo\u017eek vstupuj\u00edc\u00edch do v\u00fdpo\u010dtu op\u010dn\u00ed ceny v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m jednotliv\u00e9m okam\u017eiku. Takto poznan\u00fd probl\u00e9m by pak mohl formulovat samotnou podstatu op\u010dn\u00edho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed, tedy \u017ee op\u010dn\u00ed trading je zalo\u017een p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na pozn\u00e1n\u00ed interakci ceny opce na pohybu <strong>Ceny podkladu<\/strong> a v\u00fdvoji <strong>Implied Volatility<\/strong>. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Ned\u011bl\u00e1m si pra\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ambice vytv\u00e1\u0159et predikce budouc\u00edho pohybu ani jedn\u00e9 ze dvou t\u011bchto cenotvorn\u00fdch slo\u017eek &#8211; <strong>Ceny podkladu<\/strong> nebo <strong>Implied Volatility<\/strong>. Po l\u00e9tech str\u00e1ven\u00fdch tradingem jsem musel vyhodnotit, \u017ee m\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed jak\u00fdchkoliv p\u0159esn\u00fdch progn\u00f3z v\u00a0tomto sm\u011bru je nejen nemo\u017en\u00e9, ale hlavn\u011b zcela zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed a zejm\u00e9na znamen\u00e1 pl\u00fdtv\u00e1n\u00ed drahocenn\u00fdm \u010dasem. Jednodu\u0161e jsem vyhodnotil, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed sv\u011bt okolo m\u011b se nepohybuje tak, jak bych si p\u0159\u00e1l a jak jsem mu ve sv\u00e9 hlav\u011b p\u0159edur\u010dil, ale \u017ee funguje zcela nez\u00e1visle na m\u00e9m v\u011bdom\u00ed, byt\u00ed a obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed. V\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b to ale neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee jsem \u00favahy na toto t\u00e9ma ze sv\u00e9ho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed zcela vypustil, ba naopak, stala se p\u0159edm\u011btem dosti bedliv\u00e9ho zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed a vyhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed a zcela z\u00e1sadn\u00ed a nepostradatelnou nezbytnost\u00ed, pouze se nec\u00edt\u00edm b\u00fdt povol\u00e1n k\u00a0tomu, abych n\u011bkomu drze tvrdil, \u017ee cena akcie Tesla Inc. bude p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden v\u00a0p\u00e1tek na hodnot\u011b 321.40 USD a \u017ee Implied Volatilita opc\u00ed na ATM strike akcie Facebook bude p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed st\u0159edu pro op\u010dn\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzec expiruj\u00edc\u00ed za m\u011bs\u00edc na \u00farovni 31%. Budouc\u00ed cenov\u00fd pohyb na podkladu a Implied Volatilita jsou spojit\u00e9 n\u00e1doby a jsou navz\u00e1jem logicky, prakticky i matematicky propojeny, ale jejich p\u0159esnou predikci bych si pro svou komplexnost a neur\u010ditost nedovolil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 K\u00a0vytvo\u0159en\u00ed nejjednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edstavy o mo\u017en\u00fdch budouc\u00edch pohybech podkladov\u00e9ho aktiva (budu m\u00edt v\u00a0cel\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku na mysli akcie, pro jin\u00e9 podklady to pak samoz\u0159ejm\u011b plat\u00ed obdobn\u011b) mi nezbude nic jin\u00e9ho, ne\u017e usuzovat z\u00a0pohybu minul\u00fdch. Nemohu se spol\u00e9hat, \u017ee budouc\u00ed poznan\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady mo\u017en\u00e9ho cenov\u00e9ho pohybu \u2013 v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 politick\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost, \u0161patn\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed, vojensk\u00fd konflikt, vyhla\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f, v\u00fdplata Dividendy, odvol\u00e1n\u00ed spr\u00e1vn\u00ed rady, schv\u00e1len\u00ed v\u00fdroby l\u00e9ku, vynesen\u00ed rozsudku v\u00a0neprosp\u011bch spole\u010dnosti a podobn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy, budou m\u00edt m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fd vliv na cenu mnou dr\u017een\u00fdch akci\u00ed, trhy jsou nevyzpytateln\u00e9 a souhrnnou psychologii \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f trh\u016f nelze prost\u011b odhadnout. Nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 nap\u0159\u00edklad dop\u0159edu rozpoznat a p\u0159edur\u010dit, jestli vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b skv\u011bl\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky za uplynul\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed nakonec nebudou znamenat k\u00fd\u017een\u00fd dvouprocentn\u00ed r\u016fst ceny akcie, proto\u017ee je docela mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee tento r\u016fst byl trhem o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n a prom\u00edtnut do ceny ji\u017e p\u0159ed touto fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed zpr\u00e1vou, takov\u00e9 vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed dobr\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsel pak m\u016f\u017ee naopak zp\u016fsobit \u00falevn\u00e9 potvrzen\u00ed spr\u00e1vn\u00e9ho p\u0159edpokladu analytik\u016f, a to m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a0kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku v\u00e9st dokonce k\u00a0poklesu ceny. Ka\u017ed\u00fd si ur\u010dit\u011b takovou nevyzpytatelnou reakci trh\u016f zcela jist\u011b ji\u017e pro\u017eil.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Jak tedy nalo\u017eit s\u00a0historick\u00fdmi daty k\u00a0vyhodnocen\u00ed budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje za sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee nejsem vlastn\u011b schopen nic do budoucnosti p\u0159esn\u011b kvantifikovat? Jako op\u010dn\u00ed obchodn\u00edk m\u00e1m komfortn\u00ed mo\u017enost si dovolit nep\u0159esn\u011b p\u0159edpov\u00eddat sm\u011br budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje a je\u0161t\u011b na takov\u00fdch nep\u0159esnostech vyd\u011bl\u00e1vat. To je velmi elegantn\u00ed pozice oproti akciov\u00fdm obchodn\u00edk\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed pro sv\u016fj v\u00fdd\u011blek nutn\u011b pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edze\u0148 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho trendu, v opa\u010dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je \u010dek\u00e1 prod\u011blek. Mus\u00ed m\u011b proto nutn\u011b zaj\u00edmat, jak\u00e9 bylo <strong>rozlo\u017een\u00ed pohyb\u016f<\/strong> podklad\u016f <strong>v\u00a0minulosti<\/strong> a z\u00a0t\u00e9to premisy pak extrapolovat sv\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edn\u00e1n\u00ed do<strong> budoucnosti<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Nen\u00ed nic slo\u017eit\u00e9ho z\u00edskat ucelenou \u0159adu historick\u00fdch Close cen b\u011b\u017en\u011b obchodovan\u00e9ho akciov\u00e9ho titulu. Pro sv\u016fj p\u0159\u00edklad pou\u017eiji cenov\u00e9 \u00fadaje akcie JPM. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00favahou o budouc\u00edm pohybu akci\u00ed JPM tedy bude zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem byly jednotliv\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 pohyby <strong>rozlo\u017eeny v\u00a0minulosti<\/strong> a jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem by mohly b\u00fdt <strong>rozlo\u017eeny v\u00a0budoucnosti<\/strong>. K\u00a0rozpozn\u00e1n\u00ed, zobrazen\u00ed a interpretaci minul\u00fdch pohyb\u016f mohu jednodu\u0161e vych\u00e1zet z\u00a0mezidenn\u00edch pohyb\u016f cen t\u00e9to akcie. Mus\u00edm m\u00edt ale na pam\u011bti, \u017ee vytvo\u0159en\u00ed prost\u00e9ho rozd\u00edlu v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed ceny a dne\u0161n\u00ed ceny nem\u00e1 valnou vypov\u00eddac\u00ed schopnost pro anal\u00fdzy del\u0161\u00edch \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad. Pokud stoj\u00ed nyn\u00ed akcie JPM zhruba 100 USD, potom absolutn\u00ed mezidenn\u00ed pohyb ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3 USD znamen\u00e1 t\u0159\u00edprocentn\u00ed fluktuaci. Stejn\u00fd t\u0159\u00eddolarov\u00fd pohyb p\u0159ed p\u011bti lety, kdy se cena akcie JPM pohybovala kolem 50 USD by ale znamenal 6% cenov\u00fd pohyb. V\u00a0analyzov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto absolutn\u00edch cenov\u00fdch mezidenn\u00edch rozd\u00edl\u016f by tak vznikala z\u00e1kladn\u00ed logick\u00e1 chyba. Je proto vhodn\u00e9 k\u00a0zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed takov\u00e9ho mezidenn\u00edho pohybu vyu\u017e\u00edt pod\u00edl t\u011bchto sousedn\u00edch cen a z\u00edskat tak historickou \u0159adu mezidenn\u00edch rozd\u00edl\u016f na procentn\u00ed b\u00e1zi. Je pak jedno, jestli akcie stoj\u00ed p\u011btset dolar\u016f nebo pades\u00e1t, t\u0159\u00edprocentn\u00ed r\u016fst je po\u0159\u00e1d t\u0159\u00edprocentn\u00ed r\u016fst, i kdy\u017e v\u00a0absolutn\u00edch dolarov\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stk\u00e1ch jde o diametr\u00e1ln\u011b jin\u00e9 sumy. Sou\u010dasn\u011b se tak\u00e9 mus\u00edm vypo\u0159\u00e1dat s\u00a0probl\u00e9mem r\u016fstu a poklesu ceny a spr\u00e1vn\u00e9m zachycen\u00ed t\u011bchto rozd\u00edl\u016f, pokud akcie s\u00a0cenou 100 USD vystoup\u00e1 za jeden den o t\u0159i procenta, jej\u00ed cena bude 103 USD, pokud ale vz\u00e1p\u011bt\u00ed jej\u00ed cena poklesne o t\u0159i procenta, bude jej\u00ed kone\u010dn\u00e1 cena 99.91 USD, nikoliv p\u016fvodn\u00edch 100 USD. Vyu\u017eiji tedy p\u0159i v\u00fdpo\u010dtu mezidenn\u00edch rozd\u00edl\u016f p\u0159irozen\u00e9ho logaritmu pod\u00edlu Close cen pro sledovanou akcii, abych tento rozd\u00edl eliminoval, pokud tedy dnes ukon\u010dila akcie JPM na hodnot\u011b 111.11 USD a v\u010dera ukon\u010dila na hodnot\u011b 110.80 USD, bude pak rozd\u00edl vypo\u010dten jako ln(111.11\/110.80) = +0.28%, co\u017e pak p\u0159edstavuje hodnotu mezidenn\u00edho r\u016fstu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2110\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2110\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/excelprocenta.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"424,170\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"excelprocenta\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/excelprocenta.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2110 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/excelprocenta.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"424\" height=\"170\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/excelprocenta.jpg 424w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/excelprocenta-150x60.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/excelprocenta-300x120.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 424px) 100vw, 424px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je pro akcii JPM vyobrazeno rozlo\u017een\u00ed jednodenn\u00edch cenov\u00fdch pohyb\u016f vypo\u010dten\u00fdch podle v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 metody, p\u0159irozen\u00e9ho logaritmu pod\u00edlu Close sousedn\u00edch cen v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch dnech.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2111\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2111\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"792,533\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"JPM2000Gauss\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2111 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"792\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss.jpg 792w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss-150x101.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss-300x202.jpg 300w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss-768x517.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 792px) 100vw, 792px\" \/><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Distribuce cenov\u00fdch rozd\u00edl\u016f je vytvo\u0159ena z\u00a02000 obchodn\u00edch dn\u016f, tedy zhruba za obdob\u00ed posledn\u00edch <strong>osmi let<\/strong>. Jednotliv\u00e9 vypo\u010dten\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 rozd\u00edly jsou pak rozd\u011bleny do skupin podle pohyb\u016f li\u0161\u00edc\u00edch se o desetinu procenta. Je zcela jasn\u011b a z\u0159eteln\u011b vid\u011bt, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdskyt je nahromad\u011bn okolo pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hodnoty -0.50% do +0.50 %, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cenov\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy ve sledovan\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch jsou pak vz\u00e1cn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vzhledem k\u00a0t\u011bmto pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdm hodnot\u00e1m, s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm je cenov\u00fd v\u00fdkyv vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, t\u00edm je jeho poloha vzd\u00e1len\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ke st\u0159edu vyobrazen\u00e9mu grafu. M\u00e1m tak mo\u017enost pozorovat klasick\u00e9 rozlo\u017een\u00ed hodnot nazvan\u00e9 <strong>Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed Rozd\u011blen\u00ed<\/strong>, pospojovan\u00e9 vrcholy \u00fase\u010dek histogramu by pak vyformovaly velmi povedenou <strong>Gaussovu k\u0159ivku<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Stejn\u00fd obr\u00e1zek bych mohl pozorovat, pokud bych po\u010det v\u00fdskyt\u016f (mezidenn\u00edch rozd\u00edl\u016f) zredukoval na obdob\u00ed <strong>jednoho roku<\/strong>. Nem\u011bl bych tak \u201eplynul\u00e9\u201c vyobrazen\u00ed Norm\u00e1ln\u00edho Rozd\u011blen\u00ed, ale v\u0161echny pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 atributy by byly patrn\u00e9 i z takto mal\u00e9ho vzorku vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdch dat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2112\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2112\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM252Gauss.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"786,530\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"JPM252Gauss\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM252Gauss.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2112 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM252Gauss.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"786\" height=\"530\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM252Gauss.jpg 786w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM252Gauss-150x101.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM252Gauss-300x202.jpg 300w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM252Gauss-768x518.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 786px) 100vw, 786px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Pokud bych cht\u011bl takto interpretovat nap\u0159\u00edklad pohyb akcie <strong>v\u00a0p\u011btidenn\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m \u00faseku<\/strong> a neomezovat se tak jen na mezidenn\u00ed pohyby, mohl bych se stejn\u00fdm v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00edm postupem zjistit p\u011btidenn\u00ed cenov\u00e9 rozd\u00edly, a tyto si potom interpretovat pomoc\u00ed stejn\u00e9ho grafu rozlo\u017een\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdch hodnot.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2113\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2113\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss-petidenni.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"777,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"JPM2000Gauss petidenni\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss-petidenni.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2113 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss-petidenni.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"777\" height=\"526\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss-petidenni.jpg 777w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss-petidenni-150x102.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss-petidenni-300x203.jpg 300w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM2000Gauss-petidenni-768x520.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 777px) 100vw, 777px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Pozorovateln\u00e9 efekty rozlo\u017een\u00ed vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdch hodnot popisovan\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161e jsou pak patrn\u00e9 i na datech rozd\u00edl\u016f jin\u00fdch ne\u017e jen jednodenn\u00ed cenov\u00fd rozd\u00edl.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 \u00a0V\u00fdchoz\u00edm bodem m\u00e9 \u00favahy o budouc\u00edch cen\u00e1ch akci\u00ed JPM by mohlo b\u00fdt <strong>zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed,<\/strong> \u017ee historick\u00e9 rozlo\u017een\u00ed cenov\u00fdch rozd\u00edl\u016f m\u00e1 <strong>Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed Rozd\u011blen\u00ed<\/strong>, mohl bych se tedy pokusit o \u00favahu, jak\u00e9 rozd\u011blen\u00ed budou m\u00edt ceny v\u00a0budoucnosti. Je p\u0159irozen\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee pokud m\u011bly zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 historick\u00e9 hodnoty cenov\u00fdch rozd\u00edl\u016f (mezidenn\u00edch, p\u011btidenn\u00edch\u2026) rozlo\u017een\u00ed odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed Norm\u00e1ln\u00edmu Rozd\u011blen\u00ed, potom bude asi slu\u0161n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee tuto distribuci cenov\u00fdch rozd\u00edl\u016f budou m\u00edt tak\u00e9 budouc\u00ed cenov\u00e9 rozd\u00edly. Ponech\u00e1m nyn\u00ed stranou matematick\u00e9 d\u016fkazy tohoto tvrzen\u00ed (toto bych cht\u011bl uk\u00e1zat v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku), pouze se spokoj\u00edm s\u00a0tvrzen\u00edm, \u017ee pokud jsou cenov\u00e9 rozd\u00edly zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 v\u00a0minulosti \u201enorm\u00e1ln\u011b rozlo\u017een\u00e9\u201c, budou takto rozlo\u017een\u00e9 i v\u00a0budoucnosti. Pokud bych takov\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed vzal jako z\u00e1klad pohledu do budoucnosti, pak bych, z\u00a0podstaty a vlastnost\u00ed Norm\u00e1ln\u00edho Rozd\u011blen\u00ed, mohl p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee budouc\u00ed ceny se budou nach\u00e1zet rozpt\u00fdleny kolem st\u0159edn\u00ed hodnoty (pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ceny nam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9ho pohybu) <strong>s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 68,20 %<\/strong> mezi touto st\u0159edn\u00ed hodnotou a hodnotou <strong>prvn\u00ed standardn\u00ed odchylky<\/strong>, s <strong>pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 95,40 %<\/strong> mezi touto st\u0159edn\u00ed hodnotou a hodnotou <strong>druh\u00e9 standardn\u00ed odchylky<\/strong> a s\u00a0<strong>pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 99,80 %<\/strong> mezi touto st\u0159edn\u00ed hodnotou a hodnotou <strong>t\u0159et\u00ed standardn\u00ed odchylky<\/strong>. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je tento budouc\u00ed v\u00fdskyt demonstrov\u00e1n na grafu, kter\u00fd se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed statistick\u00e9 u\u010debnici.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2114\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2114\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/norm.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"494,209\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"norm\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/norm.jpg\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2114\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/norm.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"494\" height=\"209\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/norm.jpg 494w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/norm-150x63.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/norm-300x127.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Toto je sice p\u011bkn\u00e1 teoretick\u00e1 \u00favaha, je ale nutno ji p\u0159ev\u00e9st do pou\u017eiteln\u00e9ho tvaru pro p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed a tak\u00e9 ji n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem prakticky zobrazit a interpretovat. Pokud jsem tedy zjistil, \u017ee cenu op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu tvo\u0159\u00ed <strong>Hodnota Strike<\/strong>, <strong>D\u00e9lka \u017eivota op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu<\/strong>, vypl\u00e1cen\u00e1 <strong>Dividenda,<\/strong> moment\u00e1ln\u00ed <strong>\u00darokov\u00e1 m\u00edra, <\/strong>aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed<strong> Cena podkladu<\/strong> a hodnota <strong>Implied Volatility, <\/strong>tak se mohu v\u00a0tomto okam\u017eiku zamyslet nad t\u00edm, jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem jsou ur\u010deny ceny jednotliv\u00fdch op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f, kter\u00e9 vid\u00edm ve sv\u00e9 op\u010dn\u00ed platform\u011b. P\u0159esn\u011b nyn\u00ed v\u00edm, jak\u00e1 je \u017ee Hodnota Strike, D\u00e9lka \u017eivota op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu, vypl\u00e1cen\u00e1 Dividenda, moment\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00darokov\u00e1 m\u00edra, aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed Cena podkladu a s jakou Implied Volatilitou je v\u00a0t\u00e9to cen\u011b po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1no. Na n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e9m obr\u00e1zku jsou tyto hodnoty vyzna\u010deny<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2137\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2137\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM-cena-1.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"626,505\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"JPM cena\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM-cena-1.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2137 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM-cena-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"626\" height=\"505\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM-cena-1.jpg 626w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM-cena-1-150x121.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/JPM-cena-1-300x242.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 626px) 100vw, 626px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Z\u00a0obr\u00e1zku (ozna\u010deno jednotliv\u00fdmi \u010d\u00edsly) vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee cena vyzna\u010den\u00e9ho op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu Long Call 108 pro akcii JPM by m\u011bla b\u00fdt tvo\u0159ena:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>(1) Hodnota Strike<\/strong> je 108<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>(2) D\u00e9lka \u017eivota op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu<\/strong> je 6 dn\u016f<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>(3) Dividenda<\/strong> se v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u0161esti dnech nevypl\u00e1c\u00ed (jej\u00ed cena nevstupuje do v\u00fdpo\u010dtu ceny)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>(4) \u00darokov\u00e1 m\u00edra<\/strong> se v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u0161esti dnech nezm\u011bn\u00ed a je pevn\u011b stanovena modelov\u011b na 1.75% p.a.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>(5) Cena podkladu<\/strong> je 107.90 USD<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>(6) Implied Volatilita<\/strong> je stanovena na 20.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Pokud bych cht\u011bl p\u0159edpov\u00eddat v\u00fdvoj ceny op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu do budoucnosti, m\u016f\u017eu konstatovat, \u017ee v\u00a0bodech <strong>(1) \u2013 (4)<\/strong> mohu <strong>p\u0159esn\u011b stanovit<\/strong> v\u00a0jak\u00e9mkoliv bod\u011b v\u00a0budoucnosti jeho <strong>p\u0159esn\u00e9 hodnoty<\/strong>. Nap\u0159\u00edklad pro okam\u017eik dva dny p\u0159ed expirac\u00ed bude Hodnota strike po\u0159\u00e1d na hodnot\u011b 108, D\u00e9lka \u017eivota op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu bude na hodnot\u011b 2 dn\u016f, Dividenda a \u00darokov\u00e1 m\u00edra z\u016fstanou nezm\u011bn\u011bny. U <strong>Ceny podkladu<\/strong> a <strong>Implied Volatility<\/strong> v\u0161ak <strong>nebudu v\u011bd\u011bt, jak\u00e9 hodnoty bych m\u011bl pou\u017e\u00edt<\/strong>. Proto\u017ee neum\u00edm \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem p\u0159edpov\u00eddat budouc\u00ed cenu a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 smyslupln\u00e9 vod\u00edtko se mi k\u00a0takov\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi nenab\u00edz\u00ed, nez\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 mi nic jin\u00e9ho, ne\u017e vych\u00e1zet z\u00a0vyzna\u010den\u00e9 hodnoty <strong>Implied Volatility<\/strong> a tento \u00fadaj vyu\u017e\u00edt k\u00a0budouc\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi \u2013 n\u011bkdo jej toti\u017e musel vytvo\u0159it a do op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce vyzna\u010dit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Za pou\u017eit\u00ed m\u00e9ho p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee ceny v\u00a0budoucnosti budou m\u00edt <strong>Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed rozd\u011blen\u00ed<\/strong>, je Volatilita (pro pot\u0159eby v\u00fdpo\u010dtu ceny op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu) obecn\u011b definovan\u00e1 jako <strong>cenov\u00fd pohyb<\/strong> o velikosti <strong>prvn\u00ed Standardn\u00ed Odchylky<\/strong> v\u00a0\u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu <strong>jeden rok<\/strong>. Je vyj\u00e1d\u0159ena v\u00a0procentn\u00edm tvaru jako <strong>procento z\u00a0ceny podkladov\u00e9ho aktiva<\/strong>. Jak si tedy mohu vysv\u011btlit \u00fadaj 20% Implied Volatility u m\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edkladu s\u00a0akci\u00ed JPM. Nab\u00edz\u00ed se dv\u011b jednoduch\u00e9 interpretace<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>1\/<\/strong> Pokud akcie JPM dnes stoj\u00ed 107.90 USD, tak za jeden rok by se <strong>s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 68.20%<\/strong> mohla pohybovat <strong>do 20%<\/strong> sv\u00e9 hodnoty <strong>nad sou\u010dasnou cenou<\/strong> a <strong>do 20%<\/strong> sv\u00e9 hodnoty <strong>pod sou\u010dasnou cenou<\/strong>. Cenov\u00e9 p\u00e1smo by pak bylo 86.32 USD \u2013 129.48 USD<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>2\/<\/strong> Pokud akcie JPM dnes stoj\u00ed 107.90 USD, tak v\u00a0roce, kter\u00fd bude n\u00e1sledovat, by <strong>v 68,20% tohoto budouc\u00edho \u010dasu<\/strong> mohla setrv\u00e1vat v\u00a0rozp\u011bt\u00ed <strong>86.32 USD \u2013 129.48 USD<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Ob\u011b vysv\u011btlen\u00ed pak vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti pohybu dan\u00e9m definic\u00ed Norm\u00e1ln\u00edho Rozd\u011blen\u00ed a z\u00a0n\u011bj odvozen\u00fdch pravidel pro prvn\u00ed Standardn\u00ed odchylku. Proto\u017ee je ale ro\u010dn\u00ed predikce prakticky vyu\u017eiteln\u00e1 jen m\u00e1lo a slou\u017eila by nap\u0159\u00edklad pro dr\u017een\u00ed podkladov\u00e9ho aktiva v\u00a0horizontu p\u0159esn\u011b jeden rok, je nutn\u00e9 si takovou Implied Volatilitu um\u011bt vylo\u017eit pro jin\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed. Vyu\u017eiji proto jednoduch\u00fd vzorec pro v\u00fdpo\u010det Volatility n\u00ed\u017ee<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2117\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2117\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v1-1.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"150,52\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"v1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v1-1.jpg\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2117\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v1-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"52\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Ve vzorci je symbolem <strong>sigma<\/strong> ozna\u010den\u00e1 hodnota <strong>ro\u010dn\u00ed Implied Volatility<\/strong> (tu kterou vid\u00edm v\u00a0op\u010dn\u00edm \u0159et\u011bzci) a pod odmocninou je <strong>hodnota \u010dasu<\/strong>, pro kterou budu cht\u00edt Volatilitu vypo\u010d\u00edtat. Je pak patrn\u00e9, \u017ee t\u00edmto v\u00fdpo\u010dtem mohu prov\u00e1d\u011bt ur\u010dit\u00fd stupe\u0148 \u201eodannualizace\u201c na po\u017eadovan\u00fd jin\u00fd \u010dasov\u00fd \u00fasek popisovan\u00fd v\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku <strong><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=267\">Je opce levn\u00e1 nebo drah\u00e1?<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Proto\u017ee Volatilita, vyobrazen\u00e1 v\u00a0op\u010dn\u00edm \u0159et\u011bzci p\u0159edstavuje ro\u010dn\u00ed Implied Volatilitu, mohu nap\u0159\u00edklad cht\u00edt zjistit, jak se bude pohybovat cena podkladu nap\u0159\u00edklad <strong>na jednodenn\u00ed b\u00e1zi<\/strong>, k\u00a0tomuto v\u00fdpo\u010dtu bych pak pou\u017eil \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2118\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2118\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v2.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"396,46\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"v2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v2.jpg\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2118\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"396\" height=\"46\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v2.jpg 396w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v2-150x17.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v2-300x35.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 396px) 100vw, 396px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00fdraz <strong>20%<\/strong> je <strong>Implied Volatilita<\/strong> vysledovan\u00e1 z op\u010dn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce a pod odmocninou je hodnota 252 \u2013 <strong>pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd po\u010det obchodn\u00edch dn\u016f v\u00a0roce<\/strong>. Vypo\u010dtenou jednodenn\u00ed Implied Volatilitu pak pou\u017eiji pro mou konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed akcii JPM, abych zjistil rozsah jednodenn\u00edho pohybu<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2119\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2119\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v3.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"536,27\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"v3\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v3.jpg\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2119\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"536\" height=\"27\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v3.jpg 536w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v3-150x8.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/v3-300x15.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 536px) 100vw, 536px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Z\u00a0v\u00fdpo\u010dtu pak mohu odvodit, \u017ee <strong>v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm obchodn\u00edm dnu<\/strong> se s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed <strong>68.20%<\/strong> (prvn\u00ed Stadardn\u00ed odchylka) bude cena akcie JPM pohybovat do <strong>+\/-1.35 USD<\/strong> okolo sv\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ceny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Mohlo by se zd\u00e1t, \u017ee vypozorov\u00e1n\u00ed jednodenn\u00edho pohybu by nemuselo b\u00fdt praktick\u00e9 pro m\u00e9 obchody, proto\u017ee nap\u0159\u00edklad budu cht\u00edt pozorovat pravd\u011bpodobnost pohyb\u016f v\u00a0del\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu ne\u017e je jeden den, ale krat\u0161\u00edm ne\u017e jeden rok. K\u00a0takov\u00e9mu odhadu pak dob\u0159e poslou\u017e\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b vypo\u010dten\u00e1 jednodenn\u00ed hodnota Volatility z p\u0159edchoz\u00edho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu. Pokud budu cht\u00edt zjistit pravd\u011bpodobnost <strong>m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edho pohybu<\/strong> akcie JPM za p\u0159edpokladu Norm\u00e1ln\u00edho Rozd\u011blen\u00ed, potom takov\u00e1 jednom\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed progn\u00f3za vych\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00a0hodnoty jednodenn\u00ed Volatility n\u00e1soben\u00e9 druhou odmocninou hledan\u00e9ho \u010dasov\u00e9ho \u00faseku, v\u00a0m\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jsem pod odmocninu pou\u017eil hodnotu 21 \u2013 po\u010det obchodn\u00edch dn\u016f v\u00a0kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edci. Za denn\u00ed Implied Volatilitu jsem pou\u017eil d\u0159\u00edve vypo\u010dtenou hodnotu jednodenn\u00ed Volatility 1.26%<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2418\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2418\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/mesVol.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"583,68\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"mesVol\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/mesVol.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2418 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/mesVol.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"583\" height=\"68\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/mesVol.jpg 583w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/mesVol-150x17.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/mesVol-300x35.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 583px) 100vw, 583px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Z\u00a0v\u00fdpo\u010dtu pak mohu odvodit, \u017ee <strong>v\u00a0n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edci<\/strong> se s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed <strong>68.20%<\/strong> bude cena akcie JPM pohybovat do <strong>+\/-6.15 USD<\/strong> okolo sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ceny. Stejn\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det bych pak mohl prov\u00e1d\u011bt pro jak\u00e9koliv \u010d\u00e1sti roku a tak\u00e9 jej, ve smyslu Norm\u00e1ln\u00edho Rozd\u011blen\u00ed, interpretovat pro druhou Standardn\u00ed odchylku. Potom bych nap\u0159\u00edklad mohl usuzovat, \u017ee <strong>s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 95.40%<\/strong> (pravidlo pro druhou Standardn\u00ed odchylku) se bude m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hodnota akcie JPM pohybovat v\u00a0cenov\u00e9m rozsahu <strong>+\/- 12.30 USD<\/strong> (2*6.15 USD)\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Do budoucnosti nevid\u00edm, tak\u017ee se mus\u00edm spokojit s\u00a0p\u0159\u00edtomnost\u00ed a odvozovat z\u00a0minulosti, nic jin\u00e9ho mi nezb\u00fdv\u00e1. V\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku <strong><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=267\">Je opce levn\u00e1 nebo drah\u00e1?<\/a><\/span><\/strong>\u00a0jsem popsal <strong>v\u00fdpo\u010det Historick\u00e9 Volatility<\/strong> na z\u00e1klad\u011b minul\u00fdch pohyb\u016f cen podkladov\u00e9 akcie. Takov\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det je velmi jednoduch\u00fd a rychl\u00fd, pokud m\u00e1m dobr\u00fd zdroj dat, jsem schopen si takov\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty prov\u00e1d\u011bt nap\u0159\u00edklad ve sv\u00e9m Excelu. V \u010dl\u00e1nku jsem popsal v\u00fdpo\u010det hodnoty Historick\u00e9 Volatility <strong>na m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed period\u011b<\/strong>, to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jsem vypo\u010d\u00edtal hodnotu Sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky za obdob\u00ed 21 dn\u016f, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuje pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd po\u010det obchodn\u00edch dn\u016f v\u00a0kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edci. Vypo\u010dtenou hodnotu Sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky na t\u00e9to period\u011b jsem pak annualizoval n\u00e1soben\u00edm <strong>druh\u00e9 odmocniny \u010d\u00edsla 252<\/strong> (pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd po\u010det obchodn\u00edch dn\u016f v\u00a0roce), abych z\u00edskal hodnotu Historick\u00e9 Volatility pro toto m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed. Mohu ale zvolit tak\u00e9 <strong>jin\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed<\/strong> a vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vat Historickou Volatilitu pro <strong>del\u0161\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 r\u00e1mce<\/strong>, nap\u0159\u00edklad pro 100 dn\u016f, 150 dn\u016f, 200 dn\u016f a podobn\u011b, a to jednodu\u0161e tak, \u017ee budu zad\u00e1vat v\u00fdpo\u010det Sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky pr\u00e1v\u011b na t\u011bchto odli\u0161n\u00fdch obdob\u00edch. Mohu tak z\u00edskat r\u016fzn\u00e9 n\u00e1hledy na Historickou Volatilitu podkladov\u00e9ho aktiva, pr\u00e1v\u011b na z\u00e1klad\u011b po\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 periody. Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee jsou zobrazeny jednotliv\u00e9 pr\u016fb\u011bhy takov\u00fdch <strong>Historick\u00fdch Volatilit<\/strong> pro <strong>r\u016fzn\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 r\u00e1mce<\/strong> pro akcii JPM pomoc\u00ed obchodn\u00ed platformy TWS, nemus\u00edm tedy nic po\u010d\u00edtat ve sv\u00e9m Excelu. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2121\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2121\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM-range.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"622,403\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"HV JPM range\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM-range.jpg\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2121\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM-range.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"622\" height=\"403\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM-range.jpg 622w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM-range-150x97.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM-range-300x194.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 622px) 100vw, 622px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 \u00a0Ka\u017ed\u00e1 z k\u0159ivek Historick\u00e9 Volatility s r\u016fznou periodou po\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 Standardn\u00ed odchylky se sv\u00fdm pr\u016fb\u011bhem m\u00edrn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed, z\u00e1kladn\u00ed tvary p\u0159\u00edmky z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed stejn\u00e9, jenom se umoc\u0148uje dramati\u010dnost pr\u016fb\u011bhu v souvislosti se zkracov\u00e1n\u00edm t\u00e9to po\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 periody. Hodnoty v\u0161ech t\u011bchto pr\u016fb\u011bh\u016f\u00a0<strong>Historick\u00e9 Volatility<\/strong> se ale <strong>li\u0161\u00ed<\/strong> od hodnoty <strong>Implied Volatility<\/strong>, vt\u011blen\u00e9 do ceny op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f. N\u011bkdy zna\u010dn\u011b. Stanoven\u00ed spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 hodnoty Implied Volatility vstupuj\u00edc\u00ed do ceny opc\u00ed pak m\u016f\u017ee utv\u00e1\u0159et komplexn\u00ed pohled na v\u00fdvoj trh\u016f podkladov\u00fdch aktiv pr\u00e1v\u011b z\u00a0pohledu t\u011bch \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f trh\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se na tvorb\u011b ceny pod\u00edlej\u00ed a mus\u00ed tak hodnotu Implied Volatility n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem stanovit. Tyto jejich pohledy v\u0161ak nemusej\u00ed b\u00fdt nutn\u011b v\u017edy spr\u00e1vn\u00e9. Kdyby toti\u017e tito \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci trh\u016f m\u011bli v\u017edy pravdu ve stanovov\u00e1n\u00ed Implied Volatility, musela by se hodnota Historick\u00e9 Volatility a Implied Volatility ve zp\u011btn\u00e9m pohledu do minulosti shodovat, to ale nen\u00ed prakticky mo\u017en\u00e9, proto\u017ee by pak panoval soulad mezi p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdm chov\u00e1n\u00edm ceny a skute\u010dn\u011b pozorovan\u00fdm chov\u00e1n\u00edm ceny podkladov\u00fdch aktiv, a to je ji\u017e ze sv\u00e9 podstaty neur\u010ditosti trh\u016f velmi nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9. Pokud bych prom\u00edtl hodnoty Implied Volatility do graf\u016f Historick\u00fdch Volatilit uveden\u00fdch v\u00a0obr\u00e1zku v\u00fd\u0161e pro akcii JPM, mohl bych pozorovat, \u017ee se historick\u00fd pr\u016fb\u011bh k\u0159ivky p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 Implied Volatility (b\u00edl\u00e1 k\u0159ivka n\u00ed\u017ee v grafu) a k\u0159ivek Historick\u00fdch Volatilit na r\u016fzn\u00fdch period\u00e1ch n\u011bjak v\u00fdznamn\u011b neshoduje a &#8222;\u017eije si sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed \u017eivot&#8220;. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2122\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2122\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-a-IV-JPM-range.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"623,406\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"HV a IV JPM range\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-a-IV-JPM-range.jpg\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2122\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-a-IV-JPM-range.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"623\" height=\"406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-a-IV-JPM-range.jpg 623w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-a-IV-JPM-range-150x98.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-a-IV-JPM-range-300x196.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 623px) 100vw, 623px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Pro\u010d tomu tak je? Zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee v\u00fdpo\u010det Implied Volatility je postaven na jin\u00fdch matematick\u00fdch z\u00e1kladech ne\u017e jednoduch\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det Historick\u00e9 Volatility (bez ohledu na mo\u017enost vyu\u017e\u00edvat r\u016fzn\u00e9 historick\u00e9 periody pro Standardn\u00ed odchylku). Stanovit Historickou Volatilitu je jednoduch\u00e9, proto\u017ee zn\u00e1me historick\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed cen, jak se ale budou chovat ceny zkouman\u00e9 akcie v\u00a0budoucnosti je jin\u00e1 p\u00edsni\u010dka. Stanoven\u00ed hodnoty Implied Volatility je tak sofistikovanou v\u011bdou, p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed dimenze m\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed. Komplexnost matematick\u00fdch vzorc\u016f, arm\u00e1dy analytick\u00fdch t\u00fdm\u016f a rozsah softwarov\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed, to v\u0161e vstupuje do hry o stanoven\u00ed spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 hodnoty Implied Volatility nejenom pro spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 stanoven\u00ed ceny op\u010dn\u00edch kontrakt\u016f, ale tak\u00e9 pro modely budouc\u00edho chov\u00e1n\u00ed cel\u00fdch portfoli\u00ed a jejich n\u00e1sledn\u00e9mu spr\u00e1vn\u00e9mu zaji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0d\u016fsledk\u016f mo\u017en\u00fdch budouc\u00edch zm\u011bn odhadovan\u00e9 Implied Volatility a s t\u00edm souvisej\u00edc\u00ed zm\u011bny v\u00a0pohybech podkladov\u00fdch aktiv. Netr\u00e1p\u00edm se tak nyn\u00ed zp\u016fsobem, jak\u00fdm tito \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci trh\u016f stanovuj\u00ed p\u0159esnou hodnotu Implied Volatility, proto\u017ee to je pro m\u011b nezjistiteln\u00e1 informace, mohu v\u0161ak do budoucna p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let, jak\u00fd m\u00e1 vztah k\u00a0Historick\u00e9 Volatilit\u011b a co by to mohlo znamenat pro m\u00e9 obchody.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9 pozorovat ro\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fb\u011bh nap\u0159\u00edklad 30-ti denn\u00ed Historick\u00e9 Volatility a Implied Volatility pro akcii AAPL<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2123\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2123\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-AAPL2.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"625,404\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"HV AAPL2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-AAPL2.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2123 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-AAPL2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"625\" height=\"404\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-AAPL2.jpg 625w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-AAPL2-150x97.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-AAPL2-300x194.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 625px) 100vw, 625px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0 Z\u00a0obr\u00e1zku je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee Implied Volatilita a Historick\u00e1 Volatilita jakoby opravdu m\u011bly spolu pram\u00e1lo spole\u010dn\u00e9ho. Je z\u0159eteln\u011b vid\u011bt, \u017ee o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 pohyby vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0Implied Volatility se nakonec ve skute\u010dn\u00e9m chov\u00e1n\u00ed, vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00e9m skute\u010dn\u00fdmi cenov\u00fdmi pohyby reprezentovan\u00fdmi 30-ti denn\u00ed Historickou Volatilitou, velmi diametr\u00e1ln\u011b li\u0161\u00ed. Obdob\u00ed zn\u00e1zorn\u011bn\u00e9 zelen\u00fdmi \u0161ipkami pak charakterizuje extr\u00e9my, kdy se tato o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed rozch\u00e1zela ve znateln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm rozsahu. Pozoruhodnost\u00ed t\u011bchto graf\u016f je pak v pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed oddalov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto k\u0159ivek a jejich n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 sb\u00edh\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by pak mohlo znamenat obdob\u00ed, kdy Implied Volatilita nar\u016fst\u00e1, aby po dosa\u017een\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9ho sv\u00e9ho maxima se op\u011bt vr\u00e1tila na sv\u00e9 p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b a vytv\u00e1\u0159ela tak na t\u011bchto grafech pomysln\u00e9 \u201ebubliny\u201c tvo\u0159en\u00e9 ob\u011bma k\u0159ivkami volatilit. Velikost bublin je pak odrazem odli\u0161n\u00e9ho skute\u010dn\u00e9ho chov\u00e1n\u00ed podkladov\u00e9ho aktiva m\u011b\u0159en\u00e9ho Historickou Volatilitou na 30-ti denn\u00ed historick\u00e9 period\u011b od jeho chov\u00e1n\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho, reprezentovan\u00e9ho sofistikovan\u011b vypo\u010d\u00edtanou Implied Volatilitou. Na dal\u0161\u00edm obr\u00e1zku, pro ilustraci, stejn\u00e9 vyobrazen\u00ed volatilit pro akcii JPM<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2124\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2124\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM2.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"626,401\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"HV JPM2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM2.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2124 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"626\" height=\"401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM2.jpg 626w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM2-150x96.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/HV-JPM2-300x192.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 626px) 100vw, 626px\" \/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Pokud bych tedy cht\u011bl odvozovat sv\u00e9 p\u0159edstavy o budouc\u00edm pohybu sledovan\u00e9ho podkladu od <strong>Norm\u00e1ln\u00edho Rozd\u011blen\u00ed<\/strong> a zejm\u00e9na vyzna\u010den\u00e9 <strong>Implied Volatility<\/strong>, mohl bych podle p\u0159edchoz\u00edch \u0159\u00e1dk\u016f patrn\u011b stanovit budouc\u00ed p\u00e1smo, kde se bude cena podkladov\u00e9 akcie ve vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu pohybovat podle jednoduch\u00e9ho matematick\u00e9ho v\u00fdpo\u010dtu. V\u00edce ne\u017e pravd\u011bpodobnost a stanoven\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 p\u00e1smo podle tohoto v\u00fdpo\u010dtu bude ale zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edt poznatku o Norm\u00e1ln\u00edm Rozd\u011blen\u00ed, pravd\u011bpodobnosti a Standardn\u00ed odchylce k\u00a0anal\u00fdze historick\u00fdch dat a na t\u00e9to anal\u00fdze si ud\u011blat jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edstavu, jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem by se mohla budouc\u00ed cena vyv\u00edjet.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Na obr\u00e1zku n\u00ed\u017ee je zobrazena cena akci\u00ed AAPL za posledn\u00ed rok. AAPL je velmi zn\u00e1m\u00e1 technologick\u00e1 akcie a na jej\u00ed pr\u016fb\u011bhu podle tohoto cenov\u00e9ho grafu nevid\u00edm, z\u00a0pohledu cenov\u00fdch pohyb\u016f, nic neobvykl\u00e9ho, obecn\u00fd uptrend, s n\u011bkolika poklesy vyst\u0159\u00eddan\u00fdch n\u00e1r\u016fsty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2125\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2125\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-Close.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"788,534\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"AAPL Close\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-Close.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2125 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-Close.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-Close.jpg 788w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-Close-150x102.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-Close-300x203.jpg 300w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-Close-768x520.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 788px) 100vw, 788px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 AAPL je obrovsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost, na kterou p\u016fsob\u00ed, mimo sektorov\u00e9 vlivy, mnoho glob\u00e1ln\u00edch vliv\u016f, tak\u017ee ve sv\u00e9m pr\u016fb\u011bhu lze pozorovat dobrou m\u00edru shody s akciov\u00fdmi indexy. Pokud bych si opat\u0159il historick\u00e1 Close data za posledn\u00ed rok zp\u011bt, mohl bych s\u00a0nimi n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem pracovat, nap\u0159\u00edklad vypo\u010d\u00edtat pr\u016fm\u011brnou hodnotu mezidenn\u00edho pohybu, maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mezidenn\u00ed pokles nebo maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed mezidenn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst a z t\u011bchto pohyb\u016f pak odvozovat parametry nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch mo\u017en\u00fdch obchod\u016f. Proto\u017ee se ale nyn\u00ed zab\u00fdv\u00e1m probl\u00e9mem volatility, mohl bych \u00a0na tyto mezidenn\u00ed pohyby nahl\u00ed\u017eet jinou optikou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Ve sv\u011btle pozn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee by tyto <strong>mezidenn\u00ed pohyby<\/strong> mohly m\u00edt <strong>Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed Rozd\u011blen\u00ed<\/strong>, bych mohl takovou skute\u010dnost prom\u00edtnout do t\u011bchto historick\u00fdch vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00fdch dat. K\u00a0takov\u00e9mu zobrazen\u00ed si pokus\u00edm p\u0159ev\u00e9st historick\u00e1 data akcie AAPL do tvaru, kdy <strong>nebudu<\/strong> zobrazovat hodnoty mezidenn\u00edch pohyb\u016f <strong>v\u00a0procentn\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed<\/strong>, jak je to zobrazeno v histogramu pro akcii JPM v\u00fd\u0161e v\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku, ale pokus\u00edm se p\u0159ev\u00e9st tyto data na mezidenn\u00ed pohyby vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00e9 ve <strong>Standardn\u00ed odchylce<\/strong> m\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na <strong>t\u0159icetidenn\u00ed historick\u00e9 period\u011b<\/strong> (nejb\u011b\u017en\u011bji pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9) a potom zobrazit podobn\u00fd histogram, ale sestaven\u00fd z\u00a0t\u011bchto dat. Co t\u00edm z\u00edsk\u00e1m? Jednozna\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ehled o m\u00ed\u0159e \u00a0\u201euv\u011b\u0159itelnosti\u201c minul\u00fdch pohyb\u016f z\u00a0pohledu pravd\u011bpodobnosti jejich v\u00fdskyt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2127\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2127\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPPl-SD-Histogram.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"780,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"AAPPl SD Histogram\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPPl-SD-Histogram.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2127 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPPl-SD-Histogram.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"526\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPPl-SD-Histogram.jpg 780w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPPl-SD-Histogram-150x101.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPPl-SD-Histogram-300x202.jpg 300w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPPl-SD-Histogram-768x518.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 Z\u00a0histogramu je pak patrn\u00e9, kolik, mezidenn\u00edch pohyb\u016f se odehr\u00e1lo s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnostmi podle \u201e<strong>pravidla t\u0159\u00ed sigma<\/strong>\u201c, tedy podle <strong>Norm\u00e1ln\u00edho Rozd\u011blen\u00ed<\/strong>. S pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 68,20 % se nach\u00e1zely hodnoty v\u00a0intervalu ozna\u010den\u00e9m <strong>1.SD<\/strong> (prvn\u00ed standardn\u00ed odchylka), s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 95,40 % se nach\u00e1zely hodnoty v\u00a0intervalu ozna\u010den\u00e9m<strong> 2.SD<\/strong> (druh\u00e1 standardn\u00ed odchylka) a s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 99.80 % se nach\u00e1zely hodnoty v\u00a0intervalu ozna\u010den\u00e9m <strong>3.SD<\/strong> (t\u0159et\u00ed standardn\u00ed odchylka). Pohledem na cenov\u00fd graf akciov\u00e9ho titulu nebo obecnou anal\u00fdzou historick\u00fdch dat bych nemohl takov\u00e9 informace tak elegantn\u011b z\u00edskat. Co je ale na takov\u00fdch datech pozoruhodn\u00e9, p\u0159esto\u017ee to z\u00a0cenov\u00e9ho grafu nevypl\u00fdv\u00e1, je zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee z\u00a0takov\u00e9ho histogramu tak\u00e9 mohu vy\u010d\u00edst, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00a0pohyb\u016f le\u017e\u00ed <strong>mimo p\u00e1smo t\u0159et\u00ed Standardn\u00ed odchylky<\/strong> na lev\u00e9m a prav\u00e9m okraji grafu, kter\u00e9 vyjad\u0159uj\u00ed velmi neobvykl\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 pohyby (mal\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 \u0161ipky). Tyto pohyby mimo vyzna\u010den\u00e9 p\u00e1smo t\u0159et\u00ed Standardn\u00ed odchylky pak znamenaj\u00ed, \u017ee nastaly <strong>s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed<\/strong> ne\u017e <strong>0.20% <\/strong>(za hranic\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti 99.80%)!!! Takovou pravd\u011bpodobnost v\u00fdskytu bych patrn\u011b ve sv\u00e9m obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed vyhodnotil jako neopakovatelnou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k\u00a0op\u010dn\u00edmu obchodu s\u00a0ur\u010ditou konstrukc\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00fdpisem op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu v\u00a0bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti od takto \u201evych\u00fdlen\u00e9 ceny\u201c. Proto\u017ee mi toto zobrazen\u00ed v\u00a0histogramu mnoho dal\u0161\u00edho ne\u0159\u00edk\u00e1, nen\u00ed toto zobrazen\u00ed hodnot mezidenn\u00edch rozd\u00edl\u016f mo\u017en\u00e1 nej\u0161\u0165astn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Pou\u017eiji proto jin\u00e9 zobrazen\u00ed cenov\u00fdch pohyb\u016f p\u0159eveden\u00fdch do Standardn\u00ed odchylky, a to zobrazen\u00ed t\u011bchto mezidenn\u00edch na \u010dasov\u00e9 ose.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2128\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?attachment_id=2128\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-SD-rok.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"789,531\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"AAPL SD rok\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-SD-rok.jpg\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2128 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-SD-rok.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"789\" height=\"531\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-SD-rok.jpg 789w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-SD-rok-150x101.jpg 150w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-SD-rok-300x202.jpg 300w, https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/AAPL-SD-rok-768x517.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 789px) 100vw, 789px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 P\u0159i pohledu na takto rozlo\u017een\u00fd graf cenov\u00fdch pohyb\u016f podle Standardn\u00ed odchylky mus\u00edm konstatovat, \u017ee bych ur\u010dit\u011b nemohl z\u00a0jednodu\u0161e analyzovan\u00fdch dat jin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem potvrdit, \u017ee mohly <strong>v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu minul\u00e9ho roku<\/strong> nastat prudk\u00e9 <strong>cenov\u00e9 pohyby<\/strong> na akcii AAPL s\u00a0<strong>pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e je 0.20%<\/strong>, tedy mimo t\u0159et\u00ed Standardn\u00ed odchylku, dokonce byl n\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00a0jednom z\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f dokonce na \u00farovn\u00ed \u010dtvrt\u00e9 Standardn\u00ed odchylky (toto se mi do histogramu v\u00fd\u0161e ani neve\u0161lo). Nemus\u00edm ale nutn\u011b pozorovat jen tyto vyhrocen\u00e9 extr\u00e9my, mohu vypozorovat dobr\u00fd po\u010det cenov\u00fdch pohyb\u016f p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edch <strong>druhou Standardn\u00ed odchylku<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 bude znamenat, \u017ee v\u00a0t\u011bchto p\u0159\u00edpadech se cena pohnula do oblasti, kde se <strong>nem\u011bla nach\u00e1zet s\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 95.40%<\/strong>, a to je ji\u017e tak\u00e9 velmi slu\u0161n\u00fd \u201eokraj spole\u010dnosti\u201c. K\u00a0vyhodnocen\u00ed jsem vyu\u017eil 30-ti denn\u00ed periodu Standardn\u00ed odchylky v\u00fdpo\u010dtu minul\u00fdch pohyb\u016f, mohu ale tutu periodu plasticky m\u011bnit a nap\u0159\u00edklad ji prodlu\u017eovat, a dos\u00e1hnout jin\u00e9ho, mo\u017en\u00e1 robustn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho, pohledu na pravd\u011bpodobnost cenov\u00fdch v\u00fdlet\u016f mimo realitu v\u0161edn\u00edho dne a vyb\u00edrat tak jin\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9 vstupn\u00ed\/v\u00fdstupn\u00ed body pro obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Obecn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno \u201eneuv\u011b\u0159itelnost\u201c t\u011bchto ud\u00e1lost\u00ed by pak mohla b\u00fdt dobr\u00fdm z\u00e1kladem anal\u00fdzy dat a zejm\u00e9na dobr\u00fdm odrazov\u00fdm m\u016fstkem pro vstupov\u00e1n\u00ed do nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch obchod\u016f podle individu\u00e1ln\u00edho nastaven\u00ed. Nemus\u00edm p\u0159ipom\u00ednat, \u017ee sestavit jednoduch\u00fd Excel s\u00a0mo\u017enost\u00ed na\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed Close dat pro sledovan\u00e9 tituly s\u00a0vyhodnocen\u00edm, kde se aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cena nach\u00e1z\u00ed ve smyslu t\u00e9to Standardn\u00ed odchylky, je velmi jednoduch\u00fdm \u00fakonem. Takov\u00fd velmi jednoduch\u00fd Excel s\u00a0v\u00fd\u0161e popisovan\u00fdm v\u00fdpo\u010dtem je ke <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.dobretrejdy.com\/Upload\/ND.xlsx\">sta\u017een\u00ed zde<\/a><\/strong><\/span>. Je do n\u011bj implementov\u00e1na (do bu\u0148ky &#8222;DATE&#8220;) stahovac\u00ed formule pro Close cenu AAPL s\u00a0Quandl.com, tak\u017ee pokud m\u00e1te nainstalov\u00e1n dopln\u011bk Excelu pro data z\u00a0tohoto zdroje, sta\u010d\u00ed jen povolit na p\u00e1su n\u00e1stroj\u016f z\u00a0karty Quandl zatr\u017e\u00edtko u tla\u010d\u00edtka \u201eFormulas\u201c a po kliknut\u00ed na \u201eRefresh Sheet\u201c se data zaktualizuj\u00ed pro dan\u00fd den.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u00a0\u00a0 K\u00a0\u010demu to tedy vlastn\u011b je? Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee by nemuselo b\u00fdt \u0161patn\u00e9 z hodnoty Implied Volatility odvozovat mnoho v\u011bc\u00ed u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fdch pro m\u016fj trading. Proto\u017ee nebudu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ve sv\u00fdch obchodech vyu\u017e\u00edvat hodnot mezidenn\u00edch pohyb\u016f, ale mohu nap\u0159\u00edklad cht\u00edt do n\u011bjak\u00fdch pozic vstupovat v del\u0161\u00edch ne\u017e t\u011bchto mezidenn\u00edch intervalech a mohu p\u0159itom uva\u017eovat o n\u011bjak\u00e9 komplexn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strategii, budu asi schopen, po proveden\u00e9m v\u00fdpo\u010dtu chov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to strategie v\u00a0historii, zkoumat jej\u00ed budouc\u00ed potenci\u00e1l na z\u00e1klad\u011b posouzen\u00ed, jestli minul\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky m\u011bly Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed Rozd\u011blen\u00ed nebo nakolik se Norm\u00e1ln\u00edmu Rozd\u011blen\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017euj\u00ed \u010di dokonce zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee Norm\u00e1ln\u00ed Rozd\u011blen\u00ed nemaj\u00ed. Testem normality bych pak m\u011bl b\u00fdt schopen takovou strategii odm\u00edtnout pro jej\u00ed nevyzpytatelnost nebo naopak vy\u010dk\u00e1vat na extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pohyby v\u00a0r\u00e1mci p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobnosti a pot\u00e9 do sv\u00e9ho testovan\u00e9ho obchodu vstoupit. Nebudu tak sv\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad op\u00edrat o zji\u0161t\u011bnou pravd\u011bpodobnost vze\u0161lou z\u00a0pod\u00edlu po\u010dtu v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00fd obchod\/ztr\u00e1tov\u00fd obchod, ale o rozlo\u017een\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f obchod\u016f v\u00a0proveden\u00e9 historick\u00e9 anal\u00fdze z\u00a0pohledu jej\u00edho rozd\u011blen\u00ed. Testov\u00e1n\u00edm normality budu nap\u0159\u00edklad tak\u00e9 rychleji dost\u00e1vat odpov\u011b\u010f na ot\u00e1zku, kde mohu \u010dekat nahromad\u011bn\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f testovan\u00fdch dat (pohyb\u016f, v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00fdch obchod\u016f, ztr\u00e1tov\u00fdch obchod\u016f) s\u00a0ur\u010ditou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed :c)<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0 \u00a0Na\u010derpan\u00e9 poznatky z\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku Cena opce\u00a0mi sd\u011bluj\u00ed, \u017ee ji\u017e v\u00edm, z\u00a0\u010deho je slo\u017een v\u00fdpo\u010det ceny op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu, respektive, kter\u00e9 hodnoty do tohoto v\u00fdpo\u010dtu vstupuj\u00ed. Tak ji\u017e v\u00edm, \u017ee Hodnota Strike, D\u00e9lka \u017eivota op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu, vypl\u00e1cen\u00e1 Dividenda a moment\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00darokov\u00e1 m\u00edra jsou hodnoty, kter\u00e9 mohu p\u0159esn\u011b kvantifikovat a kter\u00e9 tvo\u0159\u00ed \u201epoznatelnou\u201c <a href=\"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=2109\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<i class=\"ion-ios-arrow-right read-more-right\"><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2130,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[19,18],"class_list":["post-2109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opcni-zaklady","tag-historicka-volatilita","tag-implied-volatility"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/main.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8zd8A-y1","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4354,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=4354","url_meta":{"origin":2109,"position":0},"title":"Volatilita a cenov\u00fd pohyb \u2013 IV.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"26.5.2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Aktualizace (ukon\u010den\u00ed) pozice CVX Butterfly k 19.6.2020 (klikni pro p\u0159esun v \u010dl\u00e1nku) \u201eSmoking Gun\u201c v tradingu neexistuje. Tento v\u00fdraz pou\u017eije mazan\u00fd vy\u0161et\u0159ovatel v americk\u00e9 krimin\u00e1lce v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee kone\u010dn\u011b objevil nezvratn\u00fd a usv\u011bd\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed d\u016fkaz viny p\u0159i sp\u00e1chan\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9ho ohavn\u00e9ho trestn\u00e9ho \u010dinu. Trader ale hled\u00e1n\u00edm podobn\u00e9ho p\u0159edm\u011btu jistoty m\u016f\u017ee ztratit velmi\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1klady\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1klady","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/main-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/main-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/main-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/main-1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":267,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=267","url_meta":{"origin":2109,"position":1},"title":"Je opce levn\u00e1 nebo drah\u00e1?","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"28.4.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0 V\u00a0minul\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku Cena opce\u00a0jsem se pokusil popsat, jak je mo\u017en\u00e9 si alespo\u0148 zjednodu\u0161en\u011b p\u0159edstavit zcela zevrubnou stavbu stanoven\u00ed ceny op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu. Proto\u017ee m\u00e1m r\u00e1d p\u0159evod teoretick\u00fdch \u00favah do praktick\u00e9ho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed (vlastn\u011b o nic jin\u00e9ho mi ani nejde), tak bych se v\u00a0intenc\u00edch t\u011bchto lehce \u00e9terick\u00fdch my\u0161lenek pokusil tuto \u00favahu o\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1klady\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1klady","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/Cheap.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/Cheap.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/Cheap.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":574,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=574","url_meta":{"origin":2109,"position":2},"title":"Vega","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"2.7.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u201e\u2026 p\u0159esto\u017ee se v\u017eilo, \u017ee popis faktor\u016f p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00edch na tvorbu op\u010dn\u00ed ceny jsme zvykl\u00ed ozna\u010dovat \u0159eck\u00fdmi p\u00edsmeny Delta, Gamma, Th\u00e9ta, Rho, Vega, tak mus\u00edm podotknout, \u017ee Vega nen\u00ed p\u00edsmenem \u0159eck\u00e9 abecedy\u2026\u201c, v\u00a0tomto smyslu v\u011bt\u0161inou b\u00fdvaj\u00ed uv\u00e1d\u011bny \u010dl\u00e1nky o \"Vega\" zab\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se vlivem zm\u011bny Implied Volatility na cenu op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu, z\u0159ejm\u011b\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1klady\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1klady","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/30.06.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/30.06.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/30.06.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/30.06.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":245,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=245","url_meta":{"origin":2109,"position":3},"title":"Cena opce","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"26.4.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0Obchodovat opce lze tak, \u017ee na p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fd po\u017eadovan\u00fd op\u010dn\u00ed kontrakt jednodu\u0161e kliknu do sv\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed platformy a zad\u00e1m p\u0159\u00edkaz k\u00a0jeho n\u00e1kupu. To dnes ch\u00e1pe ka\u017ed\u00fd. Kde se ale berou v\u0161echna ta \u010d\u00edsla s\u00a0cenami jednotliv\u00fdch kontrakt\u016f na jednotliv\u00fdch strikes\u00a0a v\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdch expirac\u00edch a jak jsou vlastn\u011b stanovov\u00e1na? Generuj\u00ed je burzovn\u00ed servery,\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1klady\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1klady","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/numbers.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/numbers.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/numbers.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/numbers.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":551,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=551","url_meta":{"origin":2109,"position":4},"title":"Th\u00e9ta","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"25.6.2017","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Nev\u00edm, jestli Th\u00e9ta Kaz\u00ed Libu\u0161i, proto\u017ee nejsem vojvoda Krok, ale proto\u017ee jsem op\u010dn\u00ed obchodn\u00edk, tak v\u00edm, jak\u00a0Th\u00e9ta m\u016f\u017ee zkazit i velmi dobrou op\u010dn\u00ed pozici. V\u00a0p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch jsem ji\u017e popisoval, jak se m\u011bn\u00ed cena op\u010dn\u00edho kontraktu v\u00a0souvislost\u00ed s\u00a0pohybem podkladov\u00e9ho aktiva a jak tuto z\u00e1vislost zachycujeme pomoc\u00ed \u0159eck\u00e9ho p\u00edsmene Delta. V\u00a0n\u00e1vaznosti\u2026","rel":"","context":"V \u201eOp\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1klady\u201c","block_context":{"text":"Op\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1klady","link":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?cat=2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/theta.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/theta.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/theta.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dobretrejdy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/theta.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3810,"url":"https:\/\/dobretrejdy.com\/?p=3810","url_meta":{"origin":2109,"position":5},"title":"Delta Neutral \u2013 XI.","author":"dobretrejdy :c)","date":"27.10.2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0\u00a0 Pozn\u00e1n\u00ed princip\u016f Delta Neutral obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed ve v\u0161ech nuanc\u00edch nen\u00ed jednoduch\u00e9, p\u0159esto\u017ee se to tak m\u016f\u017ee na prvn\u00ed pohled zd\u00e1t. 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